Bucs at Colts

I don't often post my picks because anyone can post picks. Without analysis and reasoning, I figure most people probably don't care what I bet on, and I'm usually too lazy to do a write up. After all, I've already convinced myself to bet on the game. It seems that most people are on the Bucs for this game though, and it looked like a fun one to write about, so here it is.

After starting the season at 1-4, the Colts have won 5 of their last 6 games. Their average margin of victory in their last 5 wins is an impressive 17.2 points. Carson Wentz, while not amongst the league's yardage or TD leaders, has only been picked 3 times this season. That's the best in the NFL amongst QBs with at least 250 attempts. RB, Jonathan Taylor, leads the NFL with 1122 rushing yards, and the Colts 5.2 yards per rushing attempt is tied for 1st in the NFL. Their lone loss during their current 5-1 tear was a 3 point loss to the AFC's top seeded Titans. Because of their poor start to the season, the Colts would narrowly miss the playoffs if the season ended today. They need to keep the wins coming in order to secure a playoff spot.

The defending champion Buccaneers are sitting comfortably atop the NFC South with a 7-3 record. Yes, Tom Brady leads the NFL in several passing categories, and few would be surprised to see the Bucs make their second consecutive Super Bowl appearance. However, the Bucs are just 2-3 SU on the road this year, and 0-5 ATS. Tom Brady has 9 TDs and 5 INTs in road games. Conversely, Brady has 20 TDs and 3 INTs in home games. The Bucs also have one of the NFLs best defenses, but so do the Bills, and the Colts put up 45 points against them last week.

The Colts are playing their best football of the season right now, and need this game much more than the Bucs do. Needing a game often has little to do with winning a game, however, the Colts are red hot right now. I don't see them having a letdown following their blowout win over the Bills last week. I've got the Colts +3.5, and on the money line in a home game against the poor traveling Bucs.

BOL  

Nice write up and I picked the colts for pretty similar reasons they’re playing good ball right now and are at home 

Very nice indeed sir, good stuff 

Very good words, and better selection!

Your write up made all the sense in the world, and I appreciate you taking the time to do it. It’s a shame that one bad play can screw over the whole thing. The muffed punt was one 5 sec play that ended up determining the outcome.  Too many games hinge on one play as outcome.

One bad play? There was a fumble and interception and lots of bad plays by colts

@Supersharpone

 Agreed.  The muffed punt probably hurt the most, but Colts played like $hit.  Way too many turnovers. They were lucky to still be in the game at the end with all the turnovers.