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BUF @ DAL

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Posted: #1

DAL -5.5 2*

I know I said I wasnt going to go above 1*on a game, but I'm a big fan of this play.

 
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Posted: #2
 
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Posted: #3
Buffalo is looking ahead, Dallas wins 
 
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Posted: #4
Dallas
 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by Sharkysden:

Buffalo is looking ahead, Dallas wins 

Buffalo looking ahead to Miami?
 
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Posted: #6

 Has Dallas covered the spread this year?  They certainly didn't against the Seahawks last week.  THE SEAHAWKS!

You can have all of Dallas you want, biggest underacheivers in the league. You've got big stones there buddy.

 

 
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Posted: #7

DALLAS going away!!  Great pick!!  I would say good luck, but we don't need it.  Easy wire to wire W!

 

 
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Posted: #8
The ole fade the public play...classic Charlie_M 
 
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Posted: #9
buffalo looking ahead
 
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Posted: #10

LOOKING AHEAD TO MIAMI

WHO HAS WON 1 GAME

 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by ruthian_00:

The ole fade the public play...classic Charlie_M 

That shit doesn't apply anymore, you choose a game, you pick the winning spread,,those % are fraudulent.....
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by Charlie_M:


That shit doesn't apply anymore, you choose a game, you pick the winning spread,,those % are fraudulent.....

i heard when 75% of public is on a side it loses 57% of time 

I go back n forth weather it should be taken into consideration and I think it should, sometimes...

I would have expected this line to drop by now, but it hasn't.. i can think like the everyday idiot just by looking into the obvious, like... of coarse the chargers will beat the raiders at home!  

Andrew Luck @ home?! no way he loses this game! 

i actually believe that the consensus does indeed affect the outcome of the game, shit never goes as people would expect it to especially if it is an "unanimous" decision (or overwhelming majority)     i think that the "psyche" of the game is affected by what everyone expects to happen, like... there is a reason vegas is doing well in long run, people bet favorites... people make favorites, the bills are the favorites in this game (with the points makes it look so appetizing) because that is what the public will side with.  

that only persuades me to take dallas, i mean... are you telling me that they can't win by a td here?  of coarse they can...  have bills had a better year so far.... yes, which is why they will draw alot of action.  

just my thoughts, GL to ya
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by zig_zag:


i heard when 75% of public is on a side it loses 57% of time 

I go back n forth weather it should be taken into consideration and I think it should, sometimes...

I would have expected this line to drop by now, but it hasn't.. i can think like the everyday idiot just by looking into the obvious, like... of coarse the chargers will beat the raiders at home!  

Andrew Luck @ home?! no way he loses this game! 

i actually believe that the consensus does indeed affect the outcome of the game, shit never goes as people would expect it to especially if it is an "unanimous" decision (or overwhelming majority)     i think that the "psyche" of the game is affected by what everyone expects to happen, like... there is a reason vegas is doing well in long run, people bet favorites... people make favorites, the bills are the favorites in this game (with the points makes it look so appetizing) because that is what the public will side with.  

that only persuades me to take dallas, i mean... are you telling me that they can't win by a td here?  of coarse they can...  have bills had a better year so far.... yes, which is why they will draw alot of action.  

just my thoughts, GL to ya

consensus doesn't affect the outcome, but the betting line has a lot to do with the betting public perception. And that is factored into the line. I'm on Dallas because I see them covering this game by 2-3 scores, if the "public" so happens to be against me then so be it.

I think vegas could opened this one at 4 or 3 and still received bills money. However, it would be too short on the home team.

gl

 
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Posted: #14
Although I don't disagree with u to some extent zag, I just think at this time the "books" have caught up with the whole fade the public routine

However, I will say, at times, there are strange things that have occurred to people backing  a "high % obvious play", but I believe it's a case to case basis. Just pick the team that matches up the best. Add in your intangibles at your caution.
 
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Posted: #15
what the hell is a 5.5 spread!!!
how do you think the linemakers came up with this line!? if you guessed "public perception" you are in the right direction! take all both teams stats, put it in any system and you get the buffalo winning this by 3 pts. bol to all.
 
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Posted: #16
Charlie what do you think about Miles Austin not playing?  Puts a lot more pressure on Dez and Witten.  Obviously I like the play too, but just like you said the books have caught up with the fade the public plays as was evident today with Texas A&M and Illinois. Those had all the makings of games we'd cash in big on a few years ago, yet the books just give away money.  I think what is happening is the books realize the people who watch lines and money go on the the theory of "if it doesn't make sense then bet it" and all we end up doing is offsetting all the cash on the other side.  Hope that makes sense, but just a bit frustrating how hard it's become over the last year or two.
 
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Posted: #17

Quote Originally Posted by Grinder360:

Charlie what do you think about Miles Austin not playing?  Puts a lot more pressure on Dez and Witten.  Obviously I like the play too, but just like you said the books have caught up with the fade the public plays as was evident today with Texas A&M and Illinois. Those had all the makings of games we'd cash in big on a few years ago, yet the books just give away money.  I think what is happening is the books realize the people who watch lines and money go on the the theory of "if it doesn't make sense then bet it" and all we end up doing is offsetting all the cash on the other side.  Hope that makes sense, but just a bit frustrating how hard it's become over the last year or two.

cant say that it doesnt bother me, of course i wish miles was outthere, I'm just hoping murray will have a big day in effort to limit Romo's mistakes

 
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Posted: #18
The line is down to 4.5 now....
 
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Posted: #19
i Am taking buffalo ml +185 reduced juice. Buffalo is just simply better cowboys will have trouble with the running game and fitspatrick is smart enough not to make mistakes with those soft corners from the cowboys final prediction 28-17 buffalo bills
 
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Posted: #20
on the cowboys as well - only way to know if you're right or wrong is to make $$$ or lose $$$ by laying it down

 
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Posted: #21

cowboys will have trouble with their running game?

uh, ok.....

 
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Posted: #22
fade those who are fading those who are fading the public who might be fading the sharps who are probably fading the public.
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by Charlie_M:


Buffalo looking ahead to Miami?



 
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Posted: #24
Hate Dallas but love money more. Going to tail you on this one. Cowgirls -4! 
 
 
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Posted: #25
Bills couldnt be more flat
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