Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Bills + waiting for 3 and the status of Safety Rapp and CB Benford   2 important pieces 

The 2 best QB’s in the league go head to head in the post season once again.  This time around Josh Allen does not have to put on his Superman cape and put his team on his back and try to carry them to victory.  This Bills team is built differently and it starts with a smash mouth offensive line and running game that is hard to stop.  The Bills also have a bend don’t break defense that takes the ball away +27 turnover differential.  The Bills have the blueprint on how to beat KC and they did it week 10 by controlling the ball with a run game, win the turnover battle and get after Mahomes on the edges with Rousseau, Epenesa and Von Miller.  The KC O Tackles have struggled this season and the Bills can take advantage. 
KC in the postseason has been money in the bank but this Bills team has been built to stop them and I think they do it again similar to the way they did it week 10. 

Good Luck 

I am sorry but 

GL though

@KillaPicks

 No apologies needed…..I get the KC love. 

I believe the KC Train stops here.  

@Lucky Luciano

 I'm in the same boat, I think the KC train ride is over.

Never getting to 3

I also really feel like the NFL told us a lot last week about how they feel about KC making it all the way to the SB.

@KillaPicks

 I hear ya.  I've made a lot of money on KC in the playoffs the last 3 years... including a tease on them and OSU last wknd.  I don't have any data to prove my point, it's just a gut feeling... I just feel like the ride is over.  Best of luck either way.

GL  on your plays this weekend  @Lucky Luciano 

 #1 

Go Bills! 

@KillaPicks

 On the basis that KC is beatable because they did it in week 10 and Josh Allen now has a  solid TEAM around him that he has not had in the past.  Much respect to the KC defense and Spagnola but the Bills offense is a different animal that could beat you in different ways and they were the only team to put up 30 points on KC and I think they do it again.  

“We can just take the chiefs and win free money lol”  Now That is silly my guy. 

@KillaPicks

 The Offense can keep the defense off the field and I think the Bills D will get some stops and a maybe a turnover.  

The Bills conservative offensive play calling in the 2nd half vs the Ravens concerns me.  They did commit to the run but at some point you had to put Josh Allen’s cape on.  

@Macwestie1

 Yeah Mac 

Lets Go Buffalo! 

DOUBLE TEAM KELCIE AND NO ZONE

@Lucky Luciano

 , HE SHOULD NEVER BE wide OPEN

LL 

So here's the contemplation I'm having (Admittedly a Bills homer).

If one is going to play the Bills here (I don't take points on dogs - just my long term strategy) are you better off looking at superbowl matchups and take them +260 to win the superbowl?

They're +112 at my book currently (I know I can do better) so a unit win here is +1.12.  Bills / Eagles is a pick em so a unit would be +.90 for a total of 2.02.  Same payout for Washington but I'm laying points vs. +2.60 unit and a hedge consideration is Washington wins.

Thoughts on the play and not necessarily the teams?

It’s hard to beat a good team twice in one year - ask the Ravens . Hope the Bills win it all . 

Bills were about to lose the Ravens game if Andrews makes an easy catch.  Bills D was exhausted at the end of the game. Nothing left for OT

@Lucky Luciano

 I agree 

I am also on the hunch of KC stops here. Josh Allen is so tired of not getting to the big dance and being beat by KC in the playoffs. I also have made decent cash on KC but this yr will be different. I can feel it in the air! (Reminds me of when CIN and Burrow finally got one vs Mahomes and KC in the playoffs after losing to them previous years) 

GL no matter whom you guys are on fellas! Let's hope for a great game that is actually officiated as clean as you can get!!

@unplucked_gem

 I agree..if you like Bills here..why not play them to WIN title..Will be loading up on these odds 

Not sure they controlled the first matchup with the running Game. The RBs had 19 carries for 49 yards...Allen did okay but as a team they barely cleared 100 yards...

They aren’t even money in the superbowl. They’d be favorites against both Washington and Philly. You can see the actual lines on FanDuel.