Buying Points in the NFL is a longeterm loser for losers....

parlays 

and

teasers 

will bust you

stay profitable pal

Van, here is a perfect example of should you buy off key #

Sunday the Eagles fly into metlife, currently @ -7.  Im in a jets fanbase area and all over the radio its been how bad Zac Wilson has been.  BUT he has been good vs the line especially at home when he plays, quick look back to when Jets catch at least 7 on a home game with Zac and Jets are 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS  

all this vs Bills(Allen), Mia(No Tua), and this year KC(mahomie)

So the million dollar question is, do you buy off 7 to 7.5 knowing that eagles have the Phins on deck and maybe snoozing 

Its a fundamentals thing that's been appearing in bets posted, not just one game.   

@avenue

 singles givet..big priced dawgsat home.....but..doubles teasers..etc...bookies benefits..andy capps...

@soup-can

 thnkyou might back9ers giving updouble digits...but..heart head...heart dawgs....

This is probably naive, but....If you feel like you need to buy points, why are you playing that game?

Can't you find a better spot?

Historically, the spread only comes into play on 17% of NFL games.

@vanzack

 Love your posts VZ. I suggest anyone new here go search in the "Betting Strategies" forum for VZ's posts. Really good info for newbies

Good for "newbies"  lmao it is recommended reading for 98% of the degens in this forum 

Yet you took points with the Giants?

Everything you say is correct and if extrapolated to playing ML vs taking up to +3 , more profitable in the long term in my humble anecdotal experience.

@kcblitzkrieg

 true. haha 

@Bruins4Life

"This is probably naive, but....If you feel like you need to buy points, why are you playing that game?

 Can't you find a better spot?"

It's not naive in the least, it actually sums up w/o a lot of BS the whole point of the debate. 

 Vanzack touched on it in his 1st post----  "If you were only playing one hand of BJ in your life - or if it was a wager of a certain size to have an impact of utility"

Yea, unless you are "forced" to play this wager, (Only play offered or only chance to bet as a one time deal and you just have to walk away a "winner") or if the results will heavily affect your financial situation, why pay extra insurance?    

I would further argue like you, why bother betting it at all?   IMO, the only chance we have, is to spot weak or off lines, done by comparing to our own lines (however you come up w/them), and betting into these perceived mistakes by the books.  These line differences have to be of a significant amount, or they simply are no plays and passed over.   For myself, if I have to buy points, I've already made a mistake in my strategy.

I seldom do, but always consider buying a half point as I can grab -115 often with my local.  SHOCKED when I see some of these outfits taxing -130 or -125 around 3 and 7 when as you’ve pointed out long ago, many NFL games are being won by 2 pts especially since 2Pt conversion was an option.

Buying off 6 is always a consideration for me, however….Buying vig longterm won’t work.   I also agree with whomever said be satisfied with a push…maybe snag that hook to get to +10, but only at -115.  I would definitely consider but not necessarily go through with buying down to -1.5 or +2.  

Since you pointed out some new key numbers a few years ago, that has saved my bacon more than a few times.  Aloha vanzack! 

Great Thread fellas.   

^ This

BTW, Love the Avatar..... George Gervin 

@ Vanzack

Sweep the board this week   

This was clearly for SportsIntution

@vanzack

Any advice on how to do this?

"A big thing I have been concentrating on over the past decade or so is trying to isolate games that have a high probability of landing outside of one score of the spread. Some might know this as standard deviation - but to keep it simple - the farther away from the spread the more I want to be involved in that game. This is a big part of what I do week in and"

Timing of this thread is impeccable  

i buy off the popular spreads 3 7 10 14 or just tease them up or down but sometimes vegas does it for you miami - 12.5  vs a bad team giants nope pumped up to -16.5 and everyone plus g ma got fucked in ass miami won by 15

happens every week in  nfl injury reports 5 players out price goes up 4 points or more

@vanzack

 This is a strategy I've been using lately in NFL. When I feel strongly about a game I will sell points back to get +money. For example the Raiders/Packers the other night. My wager was split between Raiders -1.5, -2,-2.5,-3, and -3.5 obviously getting some nice plus money on the 3 and 3.5. Is this a strategy that you would ever consider? I've seen you mention buying and selling points a few times. Recently you said that you "buy and sell all week". Is this what you are referring to? Can you elaborate on that statement?

Also always wanted to ask you how you feel about moneylines. Do you ever play them? For example, if your strongest play of the week was a dog +3, would you consider putting something on the ML in addition to your spread bet?

Comes into play? What does that define?

The game was within 1 score of the spread in the 4th Q?

Great info 

Theoretically yes

But as we know even the best of the best cappers only win 48-58% of the time (some of the best bettors play a lot of + money plays and don't need to hit over 50%)

So even though u are super confident in your picks....which you should be....you still aren't right even 60% of the time

So having that 3rd option of a push isn't necessarily a bad thing as we saw in the example on page 1

@EastsideBangers

 But when you call games early as  , ends up as a push... It happens. We have ALLLL done it to be fair, just most of us was surprised to be fair coming from you. At least it was a push, but definitely not a win with WAY too much time left in the NFL. Regardless, EB is a facking legend around here, and theres only a few more I can count the fingers on one hand. - Just blew my mind he counted a game "bagged" with that much opportunity left

But I like teasers