Moore has hit 100-plus yards in back to back games, averaging 10.0 targets per game over his last four games and has caught over 5.5 last 4/5 games . This week he faces off against the Falcons, and Atlanta is especially weak on the left side vs receivers . High total game and DJ should have no issue getting 6 receptions in this one.
Tyler Boyd OVER 4.5 receptions odds 1.8 and OVER 60 yards odds 1.80
Aj Green out again so Boyd is WR1 again this week , he goes up against Oakland with a defence that ranks 30th against the pass . Think Oakland will have healthy lead and bengals be forced to pass , I expect Boyd to cover these bets late in the game garbage time . With Driskel at qb Boyd has caught 6 targets and over 60 yards last two games which were rams and ravens who defend better against pass than raiders.
John Brown OVER 23.5 longest reception odds 1.85
Brown is very talented receiver and especially catching the deep pass. He has went over 50 receiving yards in every game thus far and against an xavien Howard less Miami defense Miami ranks bottom three to opposing wide receivers on deep passes and what better time then to throw a bomb downfield against a weak dolphin squad.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
DJ Moore OVER 5.5 receptions odds 1.80
Moore has hit 100-plus yards in back to back games, averaging 10.0 targets per game over his last four games and has caught over 5.5 last 4/5 games . This week he faces off against the Falcons, and Atlanta is especially weak on the left side vs receivers . High total game and DJ should have no issue getting 6 receptions in this one.
Tyler Boyd OVER 4.5 receptions odds 1.8 and OVER 60 yards odds 1.80
Aj Green out again so Boyd is WR1 again this week , he goes up against Oakland with a defence that ranks 30th against the pass . Think Oakland will have healthy lead and bengals be forced to pass , I expect Boyd to cover these bets late in the game garbage time . With Driskel at qb Boyd has caught 6 targets and over 60 yards last two games which were rams and ravens who defend better against pass than raiders.
John Brown OVER 23.5 longest reception odds 1.85
Brown is very talented receiver and especially catching the deep pass. He has went over 50 receiving yards in every game thus far and against an xavien Howard less Miami defense Miami ranks bottom three to opposing wide receivers on deep passes and what better time then to throw a bomb downfield against a weak dolphin squad.
Cook played 70 percent of the snaps last week And was targeted 10 times . This game will be a shootout and Tampa bay is a pass funnel defence , they really can’t stop any of the pass game . They are also giving up a lot of plays to tight ends . With most of the focus on micheal Thomas , look for Cook to get some of the looks down in the red zone which should be a frequent visit at good odds .
Julian Edelman OVER 6.5 rec Odds 1.80
Another pass funnel def and great matchup for Edelman . He has been targeted 10, 7,9,11,15,12,11 over last 7 games with and getting over the 6.5 reception in each of those minus one . Josh Gordon now gone and Edelman is the go to receiver , should have a big game here with lots of involvement.
Macaffrey, Elliott, Dalvin Cook and josh Jacobs all to score ANYTIME TD PARLAY odds 4.0 .
These guys are the work horses and they are all in great matchups . I expect all 4 of these guys to find the end zone this week. I could ramble on about how they have good matchups and back it up with stats but we all know they beasts.
Also like Houston ATS +5 but this a prop thread so won’t get into why I think they will cover . Actually think they will win but ATS safer option .
ANy feedback on my picks let me know .
Cheers!!
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Continued
Jarod Cook ANYTIME TD score odds 3.25
Cook played 70 percent of the snaps last week And was targeted 10 times . This game will be a shootout and Tampa bay is a pass funnel defence , they really can’t stop any of the pass game . They are also giving up a lot of plays to tight ends . With most of the focus on micheal Thomas , look for Cook to get some of the looks down in the red zone which should be a frequent visit at good odds .
Julian Edelman OVER 6.5 rec Odds 1.80
Another pass funnel def and great matchup for Edelman . He has been targeted 10, 7,9,11,15,12,11 over last 7 games with and getting over the 6.5 reception in each of those minus one . Josh Gordon now gone and Edelman is the go to receiver , should have a big game here with lots of involvement.
Macaffrey, Elliott, Dalvin Cook and josh Jacobs all to score ANYTIME TD PARLAY odds 4.0 .
These guys are the work horses and they are all in great matchups . I expect all 4 of these guys to find the end zone this week. I could ramble on about how they have good matchups and back it up with stats but we all know they beasts.
Also like Houston ATS +5 but this a prop thread so won’t get into why I think they will cover . Actually think they will win but ATS safer option .
1st play for tonight game is a hedge bet on first touchdown scorer for Kansas City. These three guys , Hill, Kelce and Damien Williams get majority of the red zone looks when looking at the numbers (footballguys.com) and have a very good chance for one these guys to get the first TD for the Kansas side . The odds are
william +350
kelce +400
Hill +400
This isn’t a what team will score TD first, just which Kansas player will score first TD.
I am putting five unit on each of them and should one get in first, I will gain 7.5 units on this play . High unit count on this play because looking these guys dominate red zone. A little worried about Hardman but it’s gambling right? Also worth noting that if you think Kansas will score first TD before chargers and want the gamble the odds are +700 for all 3 guys so be going 5 units on that bet if one hits .
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Week 11 so far + 2.7 units
1st play for tonight game is a hedge bet on first touchdown scorer for Kansas City. These three guys , Hill, Kelce and Damien Williams get majority of the red zone looks when looking at the numbers (footballguys.com) and have a very good chance for one these guys to get the first TD for the Kansas side . The odds are
william +350
kelce +400
Hill +400
This isn’t a what team will score TD first, just which Kansas player will score first TD.
I am putting five unit on each of them and should one get in first, I will gain 7.5 units on this play . High unit count on this play because looking these guys dominate red zone. A little worried about Hardman but it’s gambling right? Also worth noting that if you think Kansas will score first TD before chargers and want the gamble the odds are +700 for all 3 guys so be going 5 units on that bet if one hits .
Just wanted to add to anyone actually reading this that prop bets can be very profitable. My above bet probably looks pretty silly but if you break down the numbers yourself and calculate the likelyhood of one of these 3 guys scoring first , you will notice that the percent of that hitting is very high and the return is 1.5x that of say a standard ATS bet where you will likely be getting just less then even money with only about a 50 percent chance of winning it.
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Just wanted to add to anyone actually reading this that prop bets can be very profitable. My above bet probably looks pretty silly but if you break down the numbers yourself and calculate the likelyhood of one of these 3 guys scoring first , you will notice that the percent of that hitting is very high and the return is 1.5x that of say a standard ATS bet where you will likely be getting just less then even money with only about a 50 percent chance of winning it.
Chargers offensive line banged up and missing a couple key tackles Russell Okung and Sam Tevi both out for tonight’s game . Kansas City , I expect will roll in this game as Patrick Mahomes gets an nice matchup against a vulnerable secondary so should score . Also second game back from injury so should play better. Because of this the Chargers will have be forced to pass and try to keep pace , therefore abandoning the run game .
Kansas has been gashed by the run this season so you would think the chargers having Ekeler and Melvin will find holes all night long...this would likely be the case if offensive line was healthy . My picks are all based on this narrative tgat Kansas will be able to stop the run better because the chargers will have difficult time finding lanes due to poor oline, therefore be forced to make quick throws to Ekeler who seems to be better receiver out of backfield .
-Phillip Rivers OVER 1.5 passing TD’s odds 1.80
- Melvin Gordon UNDER 75.5 rushing yards odds 1.85
- Austin Ekeler OVER 35.5 Receiving yards odds 1.85
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Few more plays tonight .
Chargers offensive line banged up and missing a couple key tackles Russell Okung and Sam Tevi both out for tonight’s game . Kansas City , I expect will roll in this game as Patrick Mahomes gets an nice matchup against a vulnerable secondary so should score . Also second game back from injury so should play better. Because of this the Chargers will have be forced to pass and try to keep pace , therefore abandoning the run game .
Kansas has been gashed by the run this season so you would think the chargers having Ekeler and Melvin will find holes all night long...this would likely be the case if offensive line was healthy . My picks are all based on this narrative tgat Kansas will be able to stop the run better because the chargers will have difficult time finding lanes due to poor oline, therefore be forced to make quick throws to Ekeler who seems to be better receiver out of backfield .
-Phillip Rivers OVER 1.5 passing TD’s odds 1.80
- Melvin Gordon UNDER 75.5 rushing yards odds 1.85
- Austin Ekeler OVER 35.5 Receiving yards odds 1.85
thanks TJZags598. Lmao yes backdoor td are the worst !! So many different bets with same odds and more than the popular ATS and over under game total . I find satisfaction trying to expose the angle of each game, not always right but.. lol. The Edelman bet I had yesterday tilted me though. No idea how tgat didn’t hit , I guess with Sanu now present the guy is taking a back seat. Have not watched the game yet though but looking at the score it looks like disappoint all around . Though my shootout for sure . Weird day though yesterday
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thanks TJZags598. Lmao yes backdoor td are the worst !! So many different bets with same odds and more than the popular ATS and over under game total . I find satisfaction trying to expose the angle of each game, not always right but.. lol. The Edelman bet I had yesterday tilted me though. No idea how tgat didn’t hit , I guess with Sanu now present the guy is taking a back seat. Have not watched the game yet though but looking at the score it looks like disappoint all around . Though my shootout for sure . Weird day though yesterday
Two heads are better than one aairomworks. Always interested in working with others if your interested . Do you have a background in fantasy football? It helps
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Quote Originally Posted by aaironworks:
I think I found my new niche I like ItGL
Two heads are better than one aairomworks. Always interested in working with others if your interested . Do you have a background in fantasy football? It helps
Week 11 so far + 2.7 units 1st play for tonight game is a hedge bet on first touchdown scorer for Kansas City. These three guys , Hill, Kelce and Damien Williams get majority of the red zone looks when looking at the numbers (footballguys.com) and have a very good chance for one these guys to get the first TD for the Kansas side . The odds are william +350 kelce +400 Hill +400 This isn’t a what team will score TD first, just which Kansas player will score first TD. I am putting five unit on each of them and should one get in first, I will gain 7.5 units on this play . High unit count on this play because looking these guys dominate red zone. A little worried about Hardman but it’s gambling right? Also worth noting that if you think Kansas will score first TD before chargers and want the gamble the odds are +700 for all 3 guys so be going 5 units on that bet if one hits .
Help is on the way. To breakeven with this bet you need any of those guys to be the first scorer around 63% of the time. I don´t see much value to be honest.
Also, Melvin Gordon under. I get your worries about LA´s OLine, but have you seen KC´s defensive line? They can be losing and 100% knowing a run is coming inside and cannot do anything to avoid being bullied by the opposing OLine. And they have also some important players missing for today.
GL
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Quote Originally Posted by Callmethan:
Week 11 so far + 2.7 units 1st play for tonight game is a hedge bet on first touchdown scorer for Kansas City. These three guys , Hill, Kelce and Damien Williams get majority of the red zone looks when looking at the numbers (footballguys.com) and have a very good chance for one these guys to get the first TD for the Kansas side . The odds are william +350 kelce +400 Hill +400 This isn’t a what team will score TD first, just which Kansas player will score first TD. I am putting five unit on each of them and should one get in first, I will gain 7.5 units on this play . High unit count on this play because looking these guys dominate red zone. A little worried about Hardman but it’s gambling right? Also worth noting that if you think Kansas will score first TD before chargers and want the gamble the odds are +700 for all 3 guys so be going 5 units on that bet if one hits .
Help is on the way. To breakeven with this bet you need any of those guys to be the first scorer around 63% of the time. I don´t see much value to be honest.
Also, Melvin Gordon under. I get your worries about LA´s OLine, but have you seen KC´s defensive line? They can be losing and 100% knowing a run is coming inside and cannot do anything to avoid being bullied by the opposing OLine. And they have also some important players missing for today.
Week 11 so far + 2.7 units 1st play for tonight game is a hedge bet on first touchdown scorer for Kansas City. These three guys , Hill, Kelce and Damien Williams get majority of the red zone looks when looking at the numbers (footballguys.com) and have a very good chance for one these guys to get the first TD for the Kansas side . The odds are william +350 kelce +400 Hill +400 This isn’t a what team will score TD first, just which Kansas player will score first TD. I am putting five unit on each of them and should one get in first, I will gain 7.5 units on this play . High unit count on this play because looking these guys dominate red zone. A little worried about Hardman but it’s gambling right? Also worth noting that if you think Kansas will score first TD before chargers and want the gamble the odds are +700 for all 3 guys so be going 5 units on that bet if one hits .
Help is on the way. To breakeven with this bet you need any of those guys to be the first scorer around 63% of the time. I don´t see much value to be honest. Also, Melvin Gordon under. I get your worries about LA´s OLine, but have you seen KC´s defensive line? They can be losing and 100% knowing a run is coming inside and cannot do anything to avoid being bullied by the opposing OLine. And they have also some important players missing for today. GL
my narrative is that Patrick Mahomes amd offence will dominate and be up by 2-4 possessions (maybe not) but that’s my narrative so they will abandon the run .
I respect your opinion about the value but I’m not looking at Kansas whole season . Hill was hurt , McCoy was also on the field for more snaps. The last 5 games these 3 guys have produced 77% of Kansas total offensive Td’s. I look at it like I have a 77% chance of it hitting due to the current roster suiting up
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Quote Originally Posted by gutinstinctus:
Quote Originally Posted by Callmethan:
Week 11 so far + 2.7 units 1st play for tonight game is a hedge bet on first touchdown scorer for Kansas City. These three guys , Hill, Kelce and Damien Williams get majority of the red zone looks when looking at the numbers (footballguys.com) and have a very good chance for one these guys to get the first TD for the Kansas side . The odds are william +350 kelce +400 Hill +400 This isn’t a what team will score TD first, just which Kansas player will score first TD. I am putting five unit on each of them and should one get in first, I will gain 7.5 units on this play . High unit count on this play because looking these guys dominate red zone. A little worried about Hardman but it’s gambling right? Also worth noting that if you think Kansas will score first TD before chargers and want the gamble the odds are +700 for all 3 guys so be going 5 units on that bet if one hits .
Help is on the way. To breakeven with this bet you need any of those guys to be the first scorer around 63% of the time. I don´t see much value to be honest. Also, Melvin Gordon under. I get your worries about LA´s OLine, but have you seen KC´s defensive line? They can be losing and 100% knowing a run is coming inside and cannot do anything to avoid being bullied by the opposing OLine. And they have also some important players missing for today. GL
my narrative is that Patrick Mahomes amd offence will dominate and be up by 2-4 possessions (maybe not) but that’s my narrative so they will abandon the run .
I respect your opinion about the value but I’m not looking at Kansas whole season . Hill was hurt , McCoy was also on the field for more snaps. The last 5 games these 3 guys have produced 77% of Kansas total offensive Td’s. I look at it like I have a 77% chance of it hitting due to the current roster suiting up
Cheers and good points. Im leaning on Chargers so thats why Im riding Melvin. I have Gordon over 73.5 so hopefully he makes 74. You are right about the abscenses. Full season numbers say its EV- but if you take games where all of them played it does look much better. Bol
I think you will hit that. He def going over 75 now , good call . I have a lot of units on the first Kansas td
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Quote Originally Posted by gutinstinctus:
Cheers and good points. Im leaning on Chargers so thats why Im riding Melvin. I have Gordon over 73.5 so hopefully he makes 74. You are right about the abscenses. Full season numbers say its EV- but if you take games where all of them played it does look much better. Bol
I think you will hit that. He def going over 75 now , good call . I have a lot of units on the first Kansas td
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