Alright folks, I've implemented my playoff system to the regular season. I thought it was very successful in the playoffs last year, and if not for a dropped pass and a muffed punt it would have been almost perfect. Going to start out small as I check the system, but here is what I have so far:
49ers -6.5 (-115) 2U
-I have the 49ers winning by 11. I also think this home/away dynamic is amazing as the 49ers are great at home while Detroit struggles away from Ford Field. See the Bears game at Soldier Field last year.
Seahawks +3 (+105) 1U
-I actually have the Seahawks winning by a FG, but the Russell Wilson variable still hasn't played itself out yet so I will keep this small. Having Marshawn Lynch closer to 100% will really boost the Seahawks.
Packers -6 (-115) 3U
-I have the Packers winning by 17, but I think this is a little off. I think the Bears are overrated. I think having Brandon Marshall back is big for Cutler, but I don't see him accounting for this many points.
Tampa Bay/NYG O43.5 (-110) 4U
-I have this capped at 55/56 so there appears to be some solid value.
-Think Josh Freeman bounces back this year.
GL to All.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Alright folks, I've implemented my playoff system to the regular season. I thought it was very successful in the playoffs last year, and if not for a dropped pass and a muffed punt it would have been almost perfect. Going to start out small as I check the system, but here is what I have so far:
49ers -6.5 (-115) 2U
-I have the 49ers winning by 11. I also think this home/away dynamic is amazing as the 49ers are great at home while Detroit struggles away from Ford Field. See the Bears game at Soldier Field last year.
Seahawks +3 (+105) 1U
-I actually have the Seahawks winning by a FG, but the Russell Wilson variable still hasn't played itself out yet so I will keep this small. Having Marshawn Lynch closer to 100% will really boost the Seahawks.
Packers -6 (-115) 3U
-I have the Packers winning by 17, but I think this is a little off. I think the Bears are overrated. I think having Brandon Marshall back is big for Cutler, but I don't see him accounting for this many points.
Tampa Bay/NYG O43.5 (-110) 4U
-I have this capped at 55/56 so there appears to be some solid value.
Alright folks, I've implemented my playoff system to the regular season. I thought it was very successful in the playoffs last year, and if not for a dropped pass and a muffed punt it would have been almost perfect. Going to start out small as I check the system, but here is what I have so far:
49ers -6.5 (-115) 2U
-I have the 49ers winning by 11. I also think this home/away dynamic is amazing as the 49ers are great at home while Detroit struggles away from Ford Field. See the Bears game at Soldier Field last year.
Seahawks +3 (+105) 1U
-I actually have the Seahawks winning by a FG, but the Russell Wilson variable still hasn't played itself out yet so I will keep this small. Having Marshawn Lynch closer to 100% will really boost the Seahawks.
Packers -6 (-115) 3U
-I have the Packers winning by 17, but I think this is a little off. I think the Bears are overrated. I think having Brandon Marshall back is big for Cutler, but I don't see him accounting for this many points.
Tampa Bay/NYG O43.5 (-110) 4U
-I have this capped at 55/56 so there appears to be some solid value.
-Think Josh Freeman bounces back this year.
GL to All.
How are they over rated? I don't think any expert expects more than 9 or 10 wins. Vegas has the total wins at 8.5. That's not really expecting much from a team.
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Quote Originally Posted by cam2smitty:
Alright folks, I've implemented my playoff system to the regular season. I thought it was very successful in the playoffs last year, and if not for a dropped pass and a muffed punt it would have been almost perfect. Going to start out small as I check the system, but here is what I have so far:
49ers -6.5 (-115) 2U
-I have the 49ers winning by 11. I also think this home/away dynamic is amazing as the 49ers are great at home while Detroit struggles away from Ford Field. See the Bears game at Soldier Field last year.
Seahawks +3 (+105) 1U
-I actually have the Seahawks winning by a FG, but the Russell Wilson variable still hasn't played itself out yet so I will keep this small. Having Marshawn Lynch closer to 100% will really boost the Seahawks.
Packers -6 (-115) 3U
-I have the Packers winning by 17, but I think this is a little off. I think the Bears are overrated. I think having Brandon Marshall back is big for Cutler, but I don't see him accounting for this many points.
Tampa Bay/NYG O43.5 (-110) 4U
-I have this capped at 55/56 so there appears to be some solid value.
-Think Josh Freeman bounces back this year.
GL to All.
How are they over rated? I don't think any expert expects more than 9 or 10 wins. Vegas has the total wins at 8.5. That's not really expecting much from a team.
i think detroit can make this close. revenge angle from last year, plus theier rush defense is much improved and may stuff gore et al with little trouble. Know what that means? Smith must win this game for SF. I don't think so.
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i think detroit can make this close. revenge angle from last year, plus theier rush defense is much improved and may stuff gore et al with little trouble. Know what that means? Smith must win this game for SF. I don't think so.
49ers Lions should be a good game. I feel like the lions got a bad game out of the way, they should look much sharper this week. 49ers are the team to beat though, so 49ers could be anyone by a td.
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49ers Lions should be a good game. I feel like the lions got a bad game out of the way, they should look much sharper this week. 49ers are the team to beat though, so 49ers could be anyone by a td.
How are they over rated? I don't think any expert expects more than 9 or 10 wins. Vegas has the total wins at 8.5. That's not really expecting much from a team.
I mean that from a media standpoint which is a proxy for the public perception. Prior to the season, I heard a lot about how improved their offense would be and that they will be a contender because of it. I agree they will show some improvements, but I think most of that optimism was focused on reuniting Cutler and Marshall. Although I agree that they will put up solid numbers, I don't think it's a game changer. The Bears didn't quite have it offensively on the road last season, and their defense had to step up to compensate.
I do understand though what you mean in the context of the vegas over/under wins. That's definitely lower than I expected. I guess I am focusing more on what the talking heads are saying.
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Quote Originally Posted by thawv:
How are they over rated? I don't think any expert expects more than 9 or 10 wins. Vegas has the total wins at 8.5. That's not really expecting much from a team.
I mean that from a media standpoint which is a proxy for the public perception. Prior to the season, I heard a lot about how improved their offense would be and that they will be a contender because of it. I agree they will show some improvements, but I think most of that optimism was focused on reuniting Cutler and Marshall. Although I agree that they will put up solid numbers, I don't think it's a game changer. The Bears didn't quite have it offensively on the road last season, and their defense had to step up to compensate.
I do understand though what you mean in the context of the vegas over/under wins. That's definitely lower than I expected. I guess I am focusing more on what the talking heads are saying.
49ers Lions should be a good game. I feel like the lions got a bad game out of the way, they should look much sharper this week. 49ers are the team to beat though, so 49ers could be anyone by a td.
I would agree with you if their bad game was by pure chance. I think the bad game was a product of a lot of offseason issues. These have a much greater effect than you would think on the locker room/team focus.
What scares me is how volatile the Lions are. Some weeks they really outperform and some weeks they just don't have it in them. I like my away figures on the Lions much more than the home figures because their week 2 performance against KC really boosted their stats.
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Quote Originally Posted by JackSmack:
49ers Lions should be a good game. I feel like the lions got a bad game out of the way, they should look much sharper this week. 49ers are the team to beat though, so 49ers could be anyone by a td.
I would agree with you if their bad game was by pure chance. I think the bad game was a product of a lot of offseason issues. These have a much greater effect than you would think on the locker room/team focus.
What scares me is how volatile the Lions are. Some weeks they really outperform and some weeks they just don't have it in them. I like my away figures on the Lions much more than the home figures because their week 2 performance against KC really boosted their stats.
I agree with most of what you said, EXCEPT Bears/Packers. GB by 17.....I don't think so. Not only will GB not win by 17, they won't win at all. I like the Bears ML, and see a big game for Cutler.
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I agree with most of what you said, EXCEPT Bears/Packers. GB by 17.....I don't think so. Not only will GB not win by 17, they won't win at all. I like the Bears ML, and see a big game for Cutler.
Running the AFC numbers right now. Just takes some more care given some teams are very different. Probably going to stay heavy on the NFC until we figure out:
1) Ryan Tannehill
2) Peyton Manning
3) Jammal Charles' ACL
4) Brandon Weeden
5) Jake Locker
6) Andrew Luck
7) Blaine Gabbert
Just a lot of question marks, so I will stay away as best I can.
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Running the AFC numbers right now. Just takes some more care given some teams are very different. Probably going to stay heavy on the NFC until we figure out:
1) Ryan Tannehill
2) Peyton Manning
3) Jammal Charles' ACL
4) Brandon Weeden
5) Jake Locker
6) Andrew Luck
7) Blaine Gabbert
Just a lot of question marks, so I will stay away as best I can.
I agree with most of what you said, EXCEPT Bears/Packers. GB by 17.....I don't think so. Not only will GB not win by 17, they won't win at all. I like the Bears ML, and see a big game for Cutler.
Don't forget this is purely a statistical system. In my post I did say that I thought 17 was a bit off. I have the final score at 35-18. I know 18 is odd, but let's say you round up to 20. How far off is that from where GB beat CHI 35-21 in Lambeau in week 16? Let's say you tack on 3 to account for Brandon Marshall, which is generous, that leaves you at 35-23GB which is still twice the spread. That game also featured a hapless GB run game which everyone is capitulating over now. The Bears were also fighting for a playoff spot, where if they lost they were eliminated, and they still got blown out. Don't forget the Bears scored the final 10 points after being down 35-10 which makes the game not look as bad as it was.
That game happened the week after GB was apparently "exposed" by KC, so what is so different about this game given last weeks 49ers game? I simply think this is a Bears value trap.
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Quote Originally Posted by James35:
I agree with most of what you said, EXCEPT Bears/Packers. GB by 17.....I don't think so. Not only will GB not win by 17, they won't win at all. I like the Bears ML, and see a big game for Cutler.
Don't forget this is purely a statistical system. In my post I did say that I thought 17 was a bit off. I have the final score at 35-18. I know 18 is odd, but let's say you round up to 20. How far off is that from where GB beat CHI 35-21 in Lambeau in week 16? Let's say you tack on 3 to account for Brandon Marshall, which is generous, that leaves you at 35-23GB which is still twice the spread. That game also featured a hapless GB run game which everyone is capitulating over now. The Bears were also fighting for a playoff spot, where if they lost they were eliminated, and they still got blown out. Don't forget the Bears scored the final 10 points after being down 35-10 which makes the game not look as bad as it was.
That game happened the week after GB was apparently "exposed" by KC, so what is so different about this game given last weeks 49ers game? I simply think this is a Bears value trap.
No if Dallas loses its because Seattle is no push over at home. Its because Seattles d made dallas o choke. I'm sure Seattle o has a trick or 2 for Sunday.
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No if Dallas loses its because Seattle is no push over at home. Its because Seattles d made dallas o choke. I'm sure Seattle o has a trick or 2 for Sunday.
Value is with Seattle here in my opinion. Everyone saw Dallas push around the Giants in the season opener so perception is very high on them. The Giants, in terms of relative performance, are a MUCH better team on the road not even including the playoffs. Dallas has had that game circled since last season, and the Giants were coming off the offseason distraction of just winning the Super Bowl. Ogletree carried them simply because Prince Amukamara was out as the nickel. If Ogletree breaks out I will eat my crow.
I admit I am high on Russell Wilson. I just think this kid has something special about him. Going on the road for your first game as a rookie is tough no matter the opponent. I thought Wilson played well. He was forced to scramble a little too much, but I was happy to see him toss a few deep balls in the first half. You don't see that much out of rookies in their first start.
My fear is the Cowboy's pass rush forcing Wilson into making some bad mistakes. The Cardinals got to Wilson too much, but I think Wilson will be athletic enough to escape the Cowboy rush.
I mean honestly this is a small 1U play for me. I just see a little value and I want to see Russell Wilson at home. Not really a big deal.
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Value is with Seattle here in my opinion. Everyone saw Dallas push around the Giants in the season opener so perception is very high on them. The Giants, in terms of relative performance, are a MUCH better team on the road not even including the playoffs. Dallas has had that game circled since last season, and the Giants were coming off the offseason distraction of just winning the Super Bowl. Ogletree carried them simply because Prince Amukamara was out as the nickel. If Ogletree breaks out I will eat my crow.
I admit I am high on Russell Wilson. I just think this kid has something special about him. Going on the road for your first game as a rookie is tough no matter the opponent. I thought Wilson played well. He was forced to scramble a little too much, but I was happy to see him toss a few deep balls in the first half. You don't see that much out of rookies in their first start.
My fear is the Cowboy's pass rush forcing Wilson into making some bad mistakes. The Cardinals got to Wilson too much, but I think Wilson will be athletic enough to escape the Cowboy rush.
I mean honestly this is a small 1U play for me. I just see a little value and I want to see Russell Wilson at home. Not really a big deal.
-I think Tannehill is a solid QB. I've watched him live a few times, and I think he shows flashes of being a great NFL QB. Against the Panthers in his first NFL start, the Panthers scored two quick TDs and it looked as if the Panthers were going to destroy the Dolphins. Tannehill got the ball back and drove for a TD. He made 3 huge 3rd and long throws to keep the drive going.
-I know Tannehill struggled against Houston, but was this not expected? His first regular season NFL start on the road against a top 3 NFL defense. Houston has an amazing pass rush and kept Tannehill uncomfortable. I expect Tannehill to bounce back at home against a pedestrian defense where he won't have to throw 36 times.
Philadelphia -2 2U -110
-I have this capped at 24-21 Eagles. This line smells...
-The main reason for taking this is after looking at Baltimore's offensive outperformance. Based on their home offense they scored 1.5 standard deviations higher than their home average from last year. If you compare relative performance using Cincinnati's road defense, they outperformed their relative performance at home by 2 standard deviations. I'm assuming we have some serious mean reversion here, especially factoring in BAL going from a home opener to a tough road environment. Taking into account their road offense vs Eagles' home defense and assuming some degree of mean reversion in relative performance, I see Baltimore scoring 16. This doesn't even factor in that the Eagles went ahead and got one of their crappy performances out of the way.
-My predicted final score: 24-16 Eagles
That should round out my card for the week.
GL ALL
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Adding 2 Plays:
Miami +2.5 2U -110
-I have this capped at 24-20 Miami.
-I think Tannehill is a solid QB. I've watched him live a few times, and I think he shows flashes of being a great NFL QB. Against the Panthers in his first NFL start, the Panthers scored two quick TDs and it looked as if the Panthers were going to destroy the Dolphins. Tannehill got the ball back and drove for a TD. He made 3 huge 3rd and long throws to keep the drive going.
-I know Tannehill struggled against Houston, but was this not expected? His first regular season NFL start on the road against a top 3 NFL defense. Houston has an amazing pass rush and kept Tannehill uncomfortable. I expect Tannehill to bounce back at home against a pedestrian defense where he won't have to throw 36 times.
Philadelphia -2 2U -110
-I have this capped at 24-21 Eagles. This line smells...
-The main reason for taking this is after looking at Baltimore's offensive outperformance. Based on their home offense they scored 1.5 standard deviations higher than their home average from last year. If you compare relative performance using Cincinnati's road defense, they outperformed their relative performance at home by 2 standard deviations. I'm assuming we have some serious mean reversion here, especially factoring in BAL going from a home opener to a tough road environment. Taking into account their road offense vs Eagles' home defense and assuming some degree of mean reversion in relative performance, I see Baltimore scoring 16. This doesn't even factor in that the Eagles went ahead and got one of their crappy performances out of the way.
Wow okay, so I'm sorry for the triple post, but I realized I had missed some games in my spreadsheet from the AFC.
Adding:
Steelers -6.5 (-110) 6U
-This is an amazing home/away dynamic as the Steelers are great at home and the Jets struggle on the road. The Steelers, relative to their opponent, are FAR better at home.
-They just lost a tough road game to a much improved Broncos team, but had Roethlisberger led them down the field for the W instead of throwing a pick 6 we would be seeing this line at 10.5.
-Please take the Jet's win with a grain of salt. They've been told about their offensive struggles all offseason, and they were lucky to catch a Bills team at home that struggled mightily on the road. The Bills allowed 10 more points on the road and scored 7 less. Though I know the Jets scored 44, the Bills gave up 33 on the road last season. The Jets have to turn around and face a Steelers defense that gave up 10pts/game at home last season. That's a massive turn around.
-I have this capped at 28-12, and I know the Steelers are banged up but Dwyer will play, Mendenhall is back, and James Harrison has a shot to play. Even without Harrison I like the Steelers in this spot.
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Wow okay, so I'm sorry for the triple post, but I realized I had missed some games in my spreadsheet from the AFC.
Adding:
Steelers -6.5 (-110) 6U
-This is an amazing home/away dynamic as the Steelers are great at home and the Jets struggle on the road. The Steelers, relative to their opponent, are FAR better at home.
-They just lost a tough road game to a much improved Broncos team, but had Roethlisberger led them down the field for the W instead of throwing a pick 6 we would be seeing this line at 10.5.
-Please take the Jet's win with a grain of salt. They've been told about their offensive struggles all offseason, and they were lucky to catch a Bills team at home that struggled mightily on the road. The Bills allowed 10 more points on the road and scored 7 less. Though I know the Jets scored 44, the Bills gave up 33 on the road last season. The Jets have to turn around and face a Steelers defense that gave up 10pts/game at home last season. That's a massive turn around.
-I have this capped at 28-12, and I know the Steelers are banged up but Dwyer will play, Mendenhall is back, and James Harrison has a shot to play. Even without Harrison I like the Steelers in this spot.
Finished out a pretty solid weekend there. Really happy with how the system performed. Almost had the Pitt score exact and called the Seahawks and Dolphins upsets. I'm a little miffed by the Eagles turning the ball over so much but I can't be too upset.
Ended 6-1 +15.85units.
I will hopefully have some picks flowing tomorrow or Tuesday.
Hope I helped some of you, good luck as always.
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49ers -6.5 (-115) 2U
Finished out a pretty solid weekend there. Really happy with how the system performed. Almost had the Pitt score exact and called the Seahawks and Dolphins upsets. I'm a little miffed by the Eagles turning the ball over so much but I can't be too upset.
Ended 6-1 +15.85units.
I will hopefully have some picks flowing tomorrow or Tuesday.
Nice day! Even your one loss was a solid pick and I think you were robbed, with the Eagles coughing it up at least twice in the red zone early on.
Appreciate it fellas.
Pasteur
PTB
Those red zone fumbles were just terrible. The Philly defense played very well too, they just kept on fighting. I have a feeling Philly could get snaked by the Cards this week since they have the Giants on deck. Could be a good spot, but have to see how the books rate the Patriots victory. Also a red flag on Kolb, of his 140 yards, 113 were to TE/RBs. Could be a nice under spot.
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Quote Originally Posted by Pasteur:
Nice day! Even your one loss was a solid pick and I think you were robbed, with the Eagles coughing it up at least twice in the red zone early on.
Appreciate it fellas.
Pasteur
PTB
Those red zone fumbles were just terrible. The Philly defense played very well too, they just kept on fighting. I have a feeling Philly could get snaked by the Cards this week since they have the Giants on deck. Could be a good spot, but have to see how the books rate the Patriots victory. Also a red flag on Kolb, of his 140 yards, 113 were to TE/RBs. Could be a nice under spot.
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