- Really nice match-up here. We all saw how Ponder struggled against a good pass defense last Thursday, and now he walks into a damn hornets nest. The Seahawks should play pissed off after allowing the Lions to march down the field in the 4th quarter to score a go ahead TD. This is a huge game for the Seahawks as they are 4-4 after dropping two straight. They are currently 1 game back in the wild card race, but if they win this week they jump into the driver's seat. They know they cannot lose or else the Cardinals, Vikings, and Lions would all own the tiebreaker over them. The Vikings defense was exposed last week by Josh Freeman, and Russell Wilson has played very well at home. I have this capped at 9 points so the combination of laying under 7 and the spot makes this my biggest play of the season thus far.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Record: 26-23 (+17.05U)
Last Week: 6-4 (+10.80U)
Lots of interesting games on the card this week.
Wanted to lock this in before the lines move:
Seahawks -5 (-110) 8U
- Really nice match-up here. We all saw how Ponder struggled against a good pass defense last Thursday, and now he walks into a damn hornets nest. The Seahawks should play pissed off after allowing the Lions to march down the field in the 4th quarter to score a go ahead TD. This is a huge game for the Seahawks as they are 4-4 after dropping two straight. They are currently 1 game back in the wild card race, but if they win this week they jump into the driver's seat. They know they cannot lose or else the Cardinals, Vikings, and Lions would all own the tiebreaker over them. The Vikings defense was exposed last week by Josh Freeman, and Russell Wilson has played very well at home. I have this capped at 9 points so the combination of laying under 7 and the spot makes this my biggest play of the season thus far.
I hope youre right Smitty, gonna put the Hawks in one of my longshot parlays..............probably will play the ML but heres the thing..............the Hawks finally didnt cover in their 1st game as a dog last week & they havent covered as a favorite yet this year..............they finally cover as a favorite this week......................
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I hope youre right Smitty, gonna put the Hawks in one of my longshot parlays..............probably will play the ML but heres the thing..............the Hawks finally didnt cover in their 1st game as a dog last week & they havent covered as a favorite yet this year..............they finally cover as a favorite this week......................
cpsn - I did note the opening line, and I would have bet more had I gotten 3. I still believe there is value in 5 simply because this should be a TD+ game.
PTB - Glad you agree mate.
Leans:
Dolphins -2.5 *should be FG+ IMO. Elite defense, should be able to establish the run. Not much difference between Tannehill and Matt Moore, but I definitely want to know who is going to start.
Falcons -4 *Falcons should win by a TD. Think the Cowboys left a lot out on the field last Sunday, but Romo does play well outside of Jerry World. On the other hand, Matt Ryan is exceptional at home and seems to be on a mission this season.
Buccaneers +1.5 *Yeah they are traveling across the country, but they do have a long week to get their ducks in a row. Good defense and their QB is playing well. Raiders will have a hard time establishing the run. I think TB should be a slight favorite.
Broncos -3 *I don't know if this has something to do with Manning's hand, but this just seems a bit off. Bengals pass defense has been porous, and Manning has been very sharp. Bengals coming off the bye worries me, but I think the Broncos are really hitting their stride. I have the Broncos winning by a TD or more.
Chargers -7 *What a dumpster fire....7 is still value regardless. KC has allowed the 3rd most passing TDs in the NFL which presents a good spot for the Chargers offense to find their groove at home. I just don't know if I'm comfortable laying my balls on the train tracks yet.
Bears -4 *This line reminds me of the NE/TEN game in week one, extra fishy. The bottom line here is that it will be tough for the Titans to keep up considering they are one of the worst pass defenses in the league. They have played good QBs though, but you can't allow 17 Passing TDs and keep up with a team that has only allowed 6. The fact that they could only manage 13 on Indy raises a red flag. The Bears had their scare last week and I don't see them overlooking the Titans this week.
All square plays which worries me, but I will probably keep my card small this week considering the size of my Seahawks wager.
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cpsn - I did note the opening line, and I would have bet more had I gotten 3. I still believe there is value in 5 simply because this should be a TD+ game.
PTB - Glad you agree mate.
Leans:
Dolphins -2.5 *should be FG+ IMO. Elite defense, should be able to establish the run. Not much difference between Tannehill and Matt Moore, but I definitely want to know who is going to start.
Falcons -4 *Falcons should win by a TD. Think the Cowboys left a lot out on the field last Sunday, but Romo does play well outside of Jerry World. On the other hand, Matt Ryan is exceptional at home and seems to be on a mission this season.
Buccaneers +1.5 *Yeah they are traveling across the country, but they do have a long week to get their ducks in a row. Good defense and their QB is playing well. Raiders will have a hard time establishing the run. I think TB should be a slight favorite.
Broncos -3 *I don't know if this has something to do with Manning's hand, but this just seems a bit off. Bengals pass defense has been porous, and Manning has been very sharp. Bengals coming off the bye worries me, but I think the Broncos are really hitting their stride. I have the Broncos winning by a TD or more.
Chargers -7 *What a dumpster fire....7 is still value regardless. KC has allowed the 3rd most passing TDs in the NFL which presents a good spot for the Chargers offense to find their groove at home. I just don't know if I'm comfortable laying my balls on the train tracks yet.
Bears -4 *This line reminds me of the NE/TEN game in week one, extra fishy. The bottom line here is that it will be tough for the Titans to keep up considering they are one of the worst pass defenses in the league. They have played good QBs though, but you can't allow 17 Passing TDs and keep up with a team that has only allowed 6. The fact that they could only manage 13 on Indy raises a red flag. The Bears had their scare last week and I don't see them overlooking the Titans this week.
All square plays which worries me, but I will probably keep my card small this week considering the size of my Seahawks wager.
I agree on the Broncos game. It and the Houston game just look to easy. Both teams looked straight dominant last week, and both of their opponents have not been that strong on D as of late.
I went ahead and put a couple units on each as I think both lines will move towards the favorites. I'm not sure I wouldn't go for a middle though if the lines moved more than a point or two.
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I agree on the Broncos game. It and the Houston game just look to easy. Both teams looked straight dominant last week, and both of their opponents have not been that strong on D as of late.
I went ahead and put a couple units on each as I think both lines will move towards the favorites. I'm not sure I wouldn't go for a middle though if the lines moved more than a point or two.
INDY +1 - THEY PLAY CHUCK-STRONG - XSPECIALLY AT HOME ANDREW LUCK IS A WORTHY #1 PICK TAMPA BAY +1 - I'VE BEEN ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF OAKLAND GAMES FOR A WHILE NOW - OAKLAND TAKES WAY TO MANY PENALTY'S TO BE THE FAVORED TEAM DENVER -3.5 - MANNING IS BACK! SEATTLE -5 - MINNESOTA IS SCREWED AT THE QB POSITION - SEATTLE ALWAYS PLAYS WELL AT HOME - MARSHAWN LYNCH WILL BE HUNGRY FOR SKITTLES.
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INDY +1 - THEY PLAY CHUCK-STRONG - XSPECIALLY AT HOME ANDREW LUCK IS A WORTHY #1 PICK TAMPA BAY +1 - I'VE BEEN ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF OAKLAND GAMES FOR A WHILE NOW - OAKLAND TAKES WAY TO MANY PENALTY'S TO BE THE FAVORED TEAM DENVER -3.5 - MANNING IS BACK! SEATTLE -5 - MINNESOTA IS SCREWED AT THE QB POSITION - SEATTLE ALWAYS PLAYS WELL AT HOME - MARSHAWN LYNCH WILL BE HUNGRY FOR SKITTLES.
Im gonna grab these 4 plays on Wednesday Early lines. Iv'e been hitting a lot of 4 Team parlay's over the last few weeks from picking on Wednesday before they adjust the lines. 4 is a Good amount of teams to pick if not 3 for accuracy. Winning is the key and almost being assured to break even doesn't hurt either.
INDY+1 TB+1 DENVER -3.5 SEATTLE - 5
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Im gonna grab these 4 plays on Wednesday Early lines. Iv'e been hitting a lot of 4 Team parlay's over the last few weeks from picking on Wednesday before they adjust the lines. 4 is a Good amount of teams to pick if not 3 for accuracy. Winning is the key and almost being assured to break even doesn't hurt either.
I agree with you to an extent. I have this capped at 4.5 so you're right, 3 would have been great. I just think the motivation in this game is too much.
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Quote Originally Posted by cpsn:
you already missed the move, it opened at -3.0
value is pretty much gone imo
gl
I agree with you to an extent. I have this capped at 4.5 so you're right, 3 would have been great. I just think the motivation in this game is too much.
cpsn - I did note the opening line, and I would have bet more had I gotten 3. I still believe there is value in 5 simply because this should be a TD+ game.
PTB - Glad you agree mate.
Leans:
Dolphins -2.5 *should be FG+ IMO. Elite defense, should be able to establish the run. Not much difference between Tannehill and Matt Moore, but I definitely want to know who is going to start.
Falcons -4 *Falcons should win by a TD. Think the Cowboys left a lot out on the field last Sunday, but Romo does play well outside of Jerry World. On the other hand, Matt Ryan is exceptional at home and seems to be on a mission this season.
Buccaneers +1.5 *Yeah they are traveling across the country, but they do have a long week to get their ducks in a row. Good defense and their QB is playing well. Raiders will have a hard time establishing the run. I think TB should be a slight favorite.
Broncos -3 *I don't know if this has something to do with Manning's hand, but this just seems a bit off. Bengals pass defense has been porous, and Manning has been very sharp. Bengals coming off the bye worries me, but I think the Broncos are really hitting their stride. I have the Broncos winning by a TD or more.
Chargers -7 *What a dumpster fire....7 is still value regardless. KC has allowed the 3rd most passing TDs in the NFL which presents a good spot for the Chargers offense to find their groove at home. I just don't know if I'm comfortable laying my balls on the train tracks yet.
Bears -4 *This line reminds me of the NE/TEN game in week one, extra fishy. The bottom line here is that it will be tough for the Titans to keep up considering they are one of the worst pass defenses in the league. They have played good QBs though, but you can't allow 17 Passing TDs and keep up with a team that has only allowed 6. The fact that they could only manage 13 on Indy raises a red flag. The Bears had their scare last week and I don't see them overlooking the Titans this week.
All square plays which worries me, but I will probably keep my card small this week considering the size of my Seahawks wager.
Like you I'm on the Hawks but the fact that rookie qbs as FAVS are ATS 1-6 has me biting my fingers
I'm on INDY at pickem MIA post NYJ 0-10 SUP and LUCK gaining confidence but I think your write-up nails it pretty good but I'm riding the trend.
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Quote Originally Posted by cam2smitty:
cpsn - I did note the opening line, and I would have bet more had I gotten 3. I still believe there is value in 5 simply because this should be a TD+ game.
PTB - Glad you agree mate.
Leans:
Dolphins -2.5 *should be FG+ IMO. Elite defense, should be able to establish the run. Not much difference between Tannehill and Matt Moore, but I definitely want to know who is going to start.
Falcons -4 *Falcons should win by a TD. Think the Cowboys left a lot out on the field last Sunday, but Romo does play well outside of Jerry World. On the other hand, Matt Ryan is exceptional at home and seems to be on a mission this season.
Buccaneers +1.5 *Yeah they are traveling across the country, but they do have a long week to get their ducks in a row. Good defense and their QB is playing well. Raiders will have a hard time establishing the run. I think TB should be a slight favorite.
Broncos -3 *I don't know if this has something to do with Manning's hand, but this just seems a bit off. Bengals pass defense has been porous, and Manning has been very sharp. Bengals coming off the bye worries me, but I think the Broncos are really hitting their stride. I have the Broncos winning by a TD or more.
Chargers -7 *What a dumpster fire....7 is still value regardless. KC has allowed the 3rd most passing TDs in the NFL which presents a good spot for the Chargers offense to find their groove at home. I just don't know if I'm comfortable laying my balls on the train tracks yet.
Bears -4 *This line reminds me of the NE/TEN game in week one, extra fishy. The bottom line here is that it will be tough for the Titans to keep up considering they are one of the worst pass defenses in the league. They have played good QBs though, but you can't allow 17 Passing TDs and keep up with a team that has only allowed 6. The fact that they could only manage 13 on Indy raises a red flag. The Bears had their scare last week and I don't see them overlooking the Titans this week.
All square plays which worries me, but I will probably keep my card small this week considering the size of my Seahawks wager.
Like you I'm on the Hawks but the fact that rookie qbs as FAVS are ATS 1-6 has me biting my fingers
I'm on INDY at pickem MIA post NYJ 0-10 SUP and LUCK gaining confidence but I think your write-up nails it pretty good but I'm riding the trend.
Im gonna grab these 4 plays on Wednesday Early lines. Iv'e been hitting a lot of 4 Team parlay's over the last few weeks from picking on Wednesday before they adjust the lines. 4 is a Good amount of teams to pick if not 3 for accuracy. Winning is the key and almost being assured to break even doesn't hurt either.
INDY+1 TB+1 DENVER -3.5 SEATTLE - 5
my picks this week.
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Quote Originally Posted by malkin:
Im gonna grab these 4 plays on Wednesday Early lines. Iv'e been hitting a lot of 4 Team parlay's over the last few weeks from picking on Wednesday before they adjust the lines. 4 is a Good amount of teams to pick if not 3 for accuracy. Winning is the key and almost being assured to break even doesn't hurt either.
I think Patriots and Raiders both covered last weekend.
That's true OAK covered playing against KC, and NE covered playing against STL. TEN is coming off OT and playing against the #1 Rushing defense. CJ will go back to rushing to 10 yards, they'll have to rely on Hasselbeck to win the game. I'll take my chances.
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Quote Originally Posted by rr207:
I think Patriots and Raiders both covered last weekend.
That's true OAK covered playing against KC, and NE covered playing against STL. TEN is coming off OT and playing against the #1 Rushing defense. CJ will go back to rushing to 10 yards, they'll have to rely on Hasselbeck to win the game. I'll take my chances.
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