My book had the niners opening line at -10 and it stayed there most of the week. I got in at -9.5 yesterday.. Today it's down to 9. I expected it to move the other way. Idon't get this at all. Is it Shanahan's tendency to go conservate with the lead? Any thoughts appreciated 
The chances that a 3rd string, outta nowhere rookie QB is going to keep playing as well as he has are very slim, historically speaking.
Beating a division rival three times in one season is always a "watch out" spot.
9.5 points is a lot in this scenario.
Wet weather, which we've had for two straight weeks in the bay area, can often be an "equalizer," esp for two teams known for running a lot.
The "sharps" and "pros" will bring this line down even more, imho.
I've got SF in a teaser -2.5, but am seriously thinking of taking Sea +9.5 for a middle.
Good Luck All.
That's long been the conventional wisdom but I never see numbers to back it up. Does anyone have accurate stats on how teams fare in the playoffs when facing a divisional opponent they swept in the regular season?
100% sweep your divisional opponent and cover Double Digits.. that's not easy with a 3rd string all be it he is hot
Thanks for the input guys. I like the under too, as well at SF giving the points. Like Cooler pointed out, I don't understand why the line went to 9 today - tho it's back up to 10 now. Seattle scored 7 and 13 points in their two games this year. Consider that Geno Smith looked like a pro bowl QB for stretches this year but not at all against that niners D. Now Geno's back down to what he's always been and the hawks don't really look like a playoff team to me. And I have to believe SF is going to shift into high gear for a run at the SB. That was my thinking. Wondering what I was missing. As someone said, I guess it could be the inexperienced QB combined with Shannahan's tendency to sit on a lead...I think the niners are good for 24 and I'd be surprised if Seattle gets in the endzone more than once.
GL whoever you're playing
I haven't looked at recent results but I remember like 15-20 yrs ago when the Eagles played the Giants in a playoff game after losing to them twice and Marc Lawrence saying that the teams usually in fact DO win the 3rd game as well, and that was what happened the Eagles lost again. IIRC was ages ago.
It's not really that significant a line move. Yes, rain can be a great equalizer but SF isn't a speed finesse team I would think they are built perfectly for wet weather. When they played bad in it that was Trey Lance and they were not playing well in general they just won 10 in a row.
The only negative for the 9ers is the inexperienced QB.
It is hard to beat a good team three times in a season, they say. Since the 1970 NFL Merger, there have been 21 instances where a team swept a team in the regular season and then had a third battle in the playoffs. The sweeping team has gone 14-7 in those games, which means it must not be *that* hard to beat a playoff team three times in a season.
It is worth noting that in 4 of these 21 trio of games, the sweeping team was on the road in the postseason. In the 17 instances where the postseason home team swept their playoff opponent during the regular season, the home teams went an impressive 12-5 in those games. The home team was, as you would expected, favored in all 17 games, with an average points spread of 5.8 points.
It's a matter of perspective i think, because I'd have to get 13 to look at Seattle seriously
The reason some say it is hard is because they look at the info wrong. They count all times the teams play 3 times including times when they went 1-1 and met a 3rd time. That changes the results quite a bit. You look at it correctly counting only the times a team was 2-0 and meeting a 3rd time.
Established in 1995,
Great info!
Hot Forum Topics
