Besides being at home, what are the Bengals other advantages? How do they stop this offense that is on a roll? Historically Andy Dalton hasn't won a big game, he beats the teams they are supposed to beat but not good quality football teams.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Besides being at home, what are the Bengals other advantages? How do they stop this offense that is on a roll? Historically Andy Dalton hasn't won a big game, he beats the teams they are supposed to beat but not good quality football teams.
This is one of those tough games to call since my math model strongly
favors Denver while the situational analysis strongly favors Cincinnati.
Denver won for me last Monday night in a 3-Star Best Bet over New
Orleans and the Broncos are riding a two game winning streak for the
first time all season. However, those two high scoring wins set up the
Broncos in a negative 37-87-6 ATS road letdown situation that actually
applied against the Saints last week. Cincinnati, meanwhile, has lost
and failed to cover in 3 straight games and, as you might suspect,
that’s actually a reason to back them this week. Non-division home
underdogs of less than 10 points are 52-19-5 ATS the week after their
3rd straight loss and spread loss if the road team has a win percentage
of less than .666. Cincinnati also applies to a 66-16-1 ATS contrary
indicator, so there is plenty of technical evidence to suggest that the
Bengals are the right side here.
While I do expect Denver to letdown and for Cincinnati to play better
than they have, I still would rather have Denver in this game because
the Broncos would win by 11 points if these teams continue to play at
the level that they’ve played so far this season. That 66-16-1 ATS
indicator that Cincinnati applies to covers by an average of 7 points,
so I’ll assume that Cincy can close the gap by 7 points based on the
strong situation. That still gives me Denver by 4.
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good analysis:
This is one of those tough games to call since my math model strongly
favors Denver while the situational analysis strongly favors Cincinnati.
Denver won for me last Monday night in a 3-Star Best Bet over New
Orleans and the Broncos are riding a two game winning streak for the
first time all season. However, those two high scoring wins set up the
Broncos in a negative 37-87-6 ATS road letdown situation that actually
applied against the Saints last week. Cincinnati, meanwhile, has lost
and failed to cover in 3 straight games and, as you might suspect,
that’s actually a reason to back them this week. Non-division home
underdogs of less than 10 points are 52-19-5 ATS the week after their
3rd straight loss and spread loss if the road team has a win percentage
of less than .666. Cincinnati also applies to a 66-16-1 ATS contrary
indicator, so there is plenty of technical evidence to suggest that the
Bengals are the right side here.
While I do expect Denver to letdown and for Cincinnati to play better
than they have, I still would rather have Denver in this game because
the Broncos would win by 11 points if these teams continue to play at
the level that they’ve played so far this season. That 66-16-1 ATS
indicator that Cincinnati applies to covers by an average of 7 points,
so I’ll assume that Cincy can close the gap by 7 points based on the
strong situation. That still gives me Denver by 4.
I think you could definitely make a case for Bengals in 1H. Bengals coming off the bye, Denver started some road games notoriously slow, ....
But, I would not want to bank on them for the game. They will, as always, get outcoached at half time and Manning will make the right adjustments to walk away with the second half pretty easily.
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I think you could definitely make a case for Bengals in 1H. Bengals coming off the bye, Denver started some road games notoriously slow, ....
But, I would not want to bank on them for the game. They will, as always, get outcoached at half time and Manning will make the right adjustments to walk away with the second half pretty easily.
denver on a roll?.... 4-3 SU....lost by 6 at ATL and by 10 at NE...did win on the road against a charger team that quit at the half...broncos have put big pt totals up against some crappy defenses oakland and new orleans come to mind....and pittsburgh in the manning denver debut.... cinncy is coming off a bye, and lets remember what Indy did at home after their bye to GB... the way this line is moving up, i like cinncy better and better. plus cinncy needs a win BADLY. in this day of parity in the NFL, success is a weeek to week proposition. i think i will take the home team with the generous pts. love cinncy in a teaser with indy.
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denver on a roll?.... 4-3 SU....lost by 6 at ATL and by 10 at NE...did win on the road against a charger team that quit at the half...broncos have put big pt totals up against some crappy defenses oakland and new orleans come to mind....and pittsburgh in the manning denver debut.... cinncy is coming off a bye, and lets remember what Indy did at home after their bye to GB... the way this line is moving up, i like cinncy better and better. plus cinncy needs a win BADLY. in this day of parity in the NFL, success is a weeek to week proposition. i think i will take the home team with the generous pts. love cinncy in a teaser with indy.
have den ats and in a teaser. i think u can surely say they are playing very consistent ball(or on a roll), 3-1 su with a bye thrown in. loss was @ NE. def movin in rt direction. def one of my big plays o the day. im givin 4.
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have den ats and in a teaser. i think u can surely say they are playing very consistent ball(or on a roll), 3-1 su with a bye thrown in. loss was @ NE. def movin in rt direction. def one of my big plays o the day. im givin 4.
im with ya switch, as sorry as that saints defense is you cant put anything to a big win over new orleans. the saints are in a mess and it wont get fixed this season. denver line is shooting up as public jumps all over the broncos.
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im with ya switch, as sorry as that saints defense is you cant put anything to a big win over new orleans. the saints are in a mess and it wont get fixed this season. denver line is shooting up as public jumps all over the broncos.
- I never follow the "oh they need a win today", learned from experience it's not a good way to cap a game but if you do believe it then denver needs the win so they can maintain home field adv in the playoffs
-Their offence revolves around aj green and obviously champ is gonna go up against him, if he gets some catches...then the broncos will do what the steelers did (saftey over the top)
-Only good things are home field adv. and a bye week
-You say denver beat the shitty new oreleans team, but they stopped BREES! no1 has done that this year and you expect cinci to put up throwing yards? since they struggle to run the ball
-Cinci has the 3rd most sacks but they blitz alot, rex ryan(as a def cordinator) will tell you...blitzing manning will kill you
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- I never follow the "oh they need a win today", learned from experience it's not a good way to cap a game but if you do believe it then denver needs the win so they can maintain home field adv in the playoffs
-Their offence revolves around aj green and obviously champ is gonna go up against him, if he gets some catches...then the broncos will do what the steelers did (saftey over the top)
-Only good things are home field adv. and a bye week
-You say denver beat the shitty new oreleans team, but they stopped BREES! no1 has done that this year and you expect cinci to put up throwing yards? since they struggle to run the ball
-Cinci has the 3rd most sacks but they blitz alot, rex ryan(as a def cordinator) will tell you...blitzing manning will kill you
Thats exactly it. And the best is people who are chasing after denver because the line has moved from -3.5 to -5. That doesnt cut through any key numbers, but they are acting like they know its sharp money
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Thats exactly it. And the best is people who are chasing after denver because the line has moved from -3.5 to -5. That doesnt cut through any key numbers, but they are acting like they know its sharp money
they stopped brees because the saints make NO effort to run the ball. its like the saints coaching staff just said, hey broncos, brees is going to throw every down, get ready. brees cant be a one man team. and unplug, cinncy needing a win is just another thing to look at, not the only thing. i cant figure out why denver backers are so defensive when anyone takes the other side..... must be a manning fetish.
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they stopped brees because the saints make NO effort to run the ball. its like the saints coaching staff just said, hey broncos, brees is going to throw every down, get ready. brees cant be a one man team. and unplug, cinncy needing a win is just another thing to look at, not the only thing. i cant figure out why denver backers are so defensive when anyone takes the other side..... must be a manning fetish.
they stopped brees because the saints make NO effort to run the ball. its like the saints coaching staff just said, hey broncos, brees is going to throw every down, get ready. brees cant be a one man team. and unplug, cinncy needing a win is just another thing to look at, not the only thing. i cant figure out why denver backers are so defensive when anyone takes the other side..... must be a manning fetish.
not getting offended, just posting some points lol.
-but if u wanna look at the must win situation, denver wins this..they got an amazing hold on their division which will lead to home field and a possiable 1st round bye
Can cinci run the ball? better than new orleans yes, but effectively..no they can't, in fact denver has a better run game and a better back
upsets can happen---pick 6,fumble,muff punt etc., but on paper the only thing helping cinci is the home crowd and a bye week
The steelers showed you how to defend cinci/aj green ..now your getting an all pro corner with safety help....
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Quote Originally Posted by pigskinpicker:
they stopped brees because the saints make NO effort to run the ball. its like the saints coaching staff just said, hey broncos, brees is going to throw every down, get ready. brees cant be a one man team. and unplug, cinncy needing a win is just another thing to look at, not the only thing. i cant figure out why denver backers are so defensive when anyone takes the other side..... must be a manning fetish.
not getting offended, just posting some points lol.
-but if u wanna look at the must win situation, denver wins this..they got an amazing hold on their division which will lead to home field and a possiable 1st round bye
Can cinci run the ball? better than new orleans yes, but effectively..no they can't, in fact denver has a better run game and a better back
upsets can happen---pick 6,fumble,muff punt etc., but on paper the only thing helping cinci is the home crowd and a bye week
The steelers showed you how to defend cinci/aj green ..now your getting an all pro corner with safety help....
I have CINCI as one of my top plays today along with Indy. Denver just came off back to back prime time games versus big opponents. They beat the Saints and came way back v the Chargers. Now they're on the road against a lowly Cinci team for a 1pm game. You tell me: Would you get as amped up for a Bengals game v Andy Dalton as you would Saints and Brees in Prime Time? I know I wouldn't. Plus CINCI has been waiting two weeks for this game. This is like the Superbowl for them. Situationally, the Bengals are the play right here. They could win outright, and I see this going as a FG game either way. Take the points. I posted my top 5 this weekend here:
Check that out if you want. Went 80% last weekend, 62% on the year.
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I have CINCI as one of my top plays today along with Indy. Denver just came off back to back prime time games versus big opponents. They beat the Saints and came way back v the Chargers. Now they're on the road against a lowly Cinci team for a 1pm game. You tell me: Would you get as amped up for a Bengals game v Andy Dalton as you would Saints and Brees in Prime Time? I know I wouldn't. Plus CINCI has been waiting two weeks for this game. This is like the Superbowl for them. Situationally, the Bengals are the play right here. They could win outright, and I see this going as a FG game either way. Take the points. I posted my top 5 this weekend here:
Yes, they have to #18 in the mouth early. Den's OL can be had. Also they need to squeeze 100 yds out of the run game. If they get balance and play mistake-free they will be in it late. I think. Gluk.
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Yes, they have to #18 in the mouth early. Den's OL can be had. Also they need to squeeze 100 yds out of the run game. If they get balance and play mistake-free they will be in it late. I think. Gluk.
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