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CC Presents: Betting against the public... WEEK 2(UPDATED)

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Posted: #1
Hey all,
 
This is an updated version of the thread I started midweek.  The public numbers have shifted a bit, but the lines are still holding strong.  I also moved the Colts game out of the top 3, however, I still like the Vikings in that one.
 
TOP 3 PICKS OF WEEK
New Orleans Saints @ Washington Redskins
Opening Spread: Washington -1
Current Spread: Washington -1
Current Public Betting %: New Orleans 73%
The Pick: Washington Redskins -1
Why?:  This line has bounced from Skins as -1 to +1, and in some places it's a pick'em.  The money is pouring in on New Orleans, and the spread is still the same. The public saw how poor the Skins played on opening day.  They saw how the Saints were able to overcome Tampa's "amazing defense"... It's just too tasty to pass up.
 
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
Opening Spread: Green Bay -3
Current Spread: Green Bay -3
Current Public Betting %: Green Bay 75%
The Pick: Detroit Lions +3
Why?:  Aaron Rodgers came into Monday's game against the Vikings with a lot of question marks.  Is he capable of filling Brett Favre's place?  Can he even lead a team?  Well, he prevailed and proved many sketpics and Viking backers worng as the Packers defeated the Vikings 24-19.  Now he brings his act to Motown against a Lions team who lost to the pitful, rebuilding Atlanta Falcons.  The money has been pouring in on the Pack, and the line hasn't budged at all... It's too good to be true right?  Right!
 
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns
Opening Spread: Steelers -6
Current Spread: Steelers -6
Current Public Betting %: Pittsburgh 76%
The Pick: Cleveland Browns +6
Why?:  Two teams heading into this game with different situations.  Pittsburgh looked like a powerhouse against Houston last week, winning 38-17.  While Cleveland played host and punching bag to the mighty Dallas Cowboys, losing 28-10.  Again, like the other games, line opened at -6 with heavy public action on the Steelers and it has yet to budge.  In fact, this is probably the most wagered on game so far.  The public is going to gobble this up because the Steelers only have to cover by a measly TD.  Shouldn't be a problem considering last weeks results, right? 
 
Another game to consider...
 
Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings
Opening Spread: Indy -2
Current Spread: Indy -1
Current Public Betting %: Indianapolis 70%
The Pick: Minnesota Vikings +1
Why?:  It's simple really.    The public has been hammering the Colts pretty hard and the line has gone down, not up.  Futhermore, how often do you see the Colts as -1 favorites against an unproven team like Minnesota?
 
GL all...
 
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Posted: #2
doesn't make a lot of sense to me.  It sounds like your capping in one direction but betting in another based on public perception.  Somethings gotta give.

G/L anyway
 
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Posted: #3
Captailor  what are you talking about?  Chris is giving us insight on some great contrarian value for tomorrow.  I'm on all the plays myself... definitely on teasers to get some extra value.  Great write ups Chris.  Thanks and GL!
 
 
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If you can bet Detroit after that putrid performance last week then you don't care about money. Also the Browns at + 6 doesn't entice me either. I like the others though. Maybe the Lions bounce back at home but they would have to show me first. The loss against the Falcons was a disgrace but the Steelers at - 6 looks pretty tasty to me.
 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by dave9981$:

If you can bet Detroit after that putrid performance last week then you don't care about money. Also the Browns at + 6 doesn't entice me either. I like the others though. Maybe the Lions bounce back at home but they would have to show me first. The loss against the Falcons was a disgrace but the Steelers at - 6 looks pretty tasty to me.

Don't care about money?  What?  How dare you you criticize my BETS!

 
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Posted: #6
That info chris makes a ALOT OF SENSE!!!!!!!! they dont know about the reverse wise guys play.... I
 
 
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Posted: #7
its called reverse line movement, not that complicated.   its when a large majority of public plays are on one team, yet the line moves in favor of that direction in stead of the opposite ways.  books love it because they feel that they will win these games which is why they dont adjust their lines to the in proportionate betting that is happening. also how vegas stays in business and continues to prosper, because of the public.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by dave9981$:

If you can bet Detroit after that putrid performance last week then you don't care about money. Also the Browns at + 6 doesn't entice me either. I like the others though. Maybe the Lions bounce back at home but they would have to show me first. The loss against the Falcons was a disgrace but the Steelers at - 6 looks pretty tasty to me.

How one team looks the previous week in the NFL means nothing on how they will perform the present week. In fact, the Browns look like a nice play!
 
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bigmoe, you couldn't be more wrong. First of all sportsbooks in vegas make a tiny amount of money, like less than 2% of revenue for a hotel. And they haven't a clue as to which games they will win, they don't have to, they just want action. The reason these lines have stayed stable is because it really takes a big money imbalance to move a line off of a number like 3 or 7. Secondly, these bogus percentages people refer to are not only inacurate but largely meaningless. In these cases while 70% of the tickets may be on a particular side, the money coming in on the other side may be a little more or a little less-but close enough to leave the line where it is and make money whichever team wins. Sure, there are cases where the book manager will think one side is a bit sharper than the other and take a stand, but mostly the action takes care of itself. Remember, even on games they end up a little heavy one way, the odds are always in their favor. They will still make a profit hitting 45% of those games because of the power of juice. When you are risking 1000 dollars to win 1100 over thousands of plays you can be less than fifty percent and still do well. And when most games you can win thousands no matter who wins, you can win without giving a shit about the outcome. With offshore books and reduced juice books, action in Vegas is so minimal now that some are barely sqeaking by and paying their people. Vegas wasn't built on sportsbetting and its even less of a factor these days as far as money generated. 99.9% of gambling is done offshore and with locals. Good luck with your picks.
 
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Posted: #10
Good write up Chris. Let them all argue about what the "books" are thinking?? I agree 100% with you on Washington!! My biggest play. I like DET and CLEV, but will probaly throw them in a 2 team teaser.. Good luck..
 
WASHINGTON
 
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Quote Originally Posted by vinnyherbert:

bigmoe, you couldn't be more wrong. First of all sportsbooks in vegas make a tiny amount of money, like less than 2% of revenue for a hotel. And they haven't a clue as to which games they will win, they don't have to, they just want action. The reason these lines have stayed stable is because it really takes a big money imbalance to move a line off of a number like 3 or 7. Secondly, these bogus percentages people refer to are not only inacurate but largely meaningless. In these cases while 70% of the tickets may be on a particular side, the money coming in on the other side may be a little more or a little less-but close enough to leave the line where it is and make money whichever team wins. Sure, there are cases where the book manager will think one side is a bit sharper than the other and take a stand, but mostly the action takes care of itself. Remember, even on games they end up a little heavy one way, the odds are always in their favor. They will still make a profit hitting 45% of those games because of the power of juice. When you are risking 1000 dollars to win 1100 over thousands of plays you can be less than fifty percent and still do well. And when most games you can win thousands no matter who wins, you can win without giving a shit about the outcome. With offshore books and reduced juice books, action in Vegas is so minimal now that some are barely sqeaking by and paying their people. Vegas wasn't built on sportsbetting and its even less of a factor these days as far as money generated. 99.9% of gambling is done offshore and with locals. Good luck with your picks.




 
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Posted: #12
like the skins
 
gl
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by vinnyherbert:

bigmoe, you couldn't be more wrong. First of all sportsbooks in vegas make a tiny amount of money, like less than 2% of revenue for a hotel. And they haven't a clue as to which games they will win, they don't have to, they just want action. The reason these lines have stayed stable is because it really takes a big money imbalance to move a line off of a number like 3 or 7. Secondly, these bogus percentages people refer to are not only inacurate but largely meaningless. In these cases while 70% of the tickets may be on a particular side, the money coming in on the other side may be a little more or a little less-but close enough to leave the line where it is and make money whichever team wins. Sure, there are cases where the book manager will think one side is a bit sharper than the other and take a stand, but mostly the action takes care of itself. Remember, even on games they end up a little heavy one way, the odds are always in their favor. They will still make a profit hitting 45% of those games because of the power of juice. When you are risking 1000 dollars to win 1100 over thousands of plays you can be less than fifty percent and still do well. And when most games you can win thousands no matter who wins, you can win without giving a shit about the outcome. With offshore books and reduced juice books, action in Vegas is so minimal now that some are barely sqeaking by and paying their people. Vegas wasn't built on sportsbetting and its even less of a factor these days as far as money generated. 99.9% of gambling is done offshore and with locals. Good luck with your picks.

Fade

 
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Posted: #14
Well said VinnyHerbert!!!
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by vinnyherbert:

bigmoe, you couldn't be more wrong. First of all sportsbooks in vegas make a tiny amount of money, like less than 2% of revenue for a hotel. And they haven't a clue as to which games they will win, they don't have to, they just want action. The reason these lines have stayed stable is because it really takes a big money imbalance to move a line off of a number like 3 or 7. Secondly, these bogus percentages people refer to are not only inacurate but largely meaningless. In these cases while 70% of the tickets may be on a particular side, the money coming in on the other side may be a little more or a little less-but close enough to leave the line where it is and make money whichever team wins. Sure, there are cases where the book manager will think one side is a bit sharper than the other and take a stand, but mostly the action takes care of itself. Remember, even on games they end up a little heavy one way, the odds are always in their favor. They will still make a profit hitting 45% of those games because of the power of juice. When you are risking 1000 dollars to win 1100 over thousands of plays you can be less than fifty percent and still do well. And when most games you can win thousands no matter who wins, you can win without giving a shit about the outcome. With offshore books and reduced juice books, action in Vegas is so minimal now that some are barely sqeaking by and paying their people. Vegas wasn't built on sportsbetting and its even less of a factor these days as far as money generated. 99.9% of gambling is done offshore and with locals. Good luck with your picks.

 

Could not have stated it any better. These anti-public this and that plays are completely ludicrous. I understand that we are trying to justiy why a line doesnt move given the amount of action...but it simply does NOT matter. Vegas lives on the VIG...plain and simple. They just want the best PROPORTION of cash on either side so that they DONT have to care...the problem for Vegas always will be controlling the SHARP money...not the pub money. SHARP money comes in very early and very late...thats the tough stuff...this pub stuff is nothing more than trying to justify taking bad teams. Jets last week a perfect example.

This system play has been tried at one site over and over again and scarcely translated to more than a 50% win ratio over the course of the year.

Research and timing is key. Price is key. Trends and systems are for the most part totally bogus. These game are measured week/week and what happened ten years ago never matters...

 
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Posted: #16
Totally agree with your picks. I have one question though, did the Steelers not open as a 4 pt. favorite and get bet up to -6. I see this game similiar to the Dallas thrashing the Browns suffered in Game 1. Just my two cents.
 
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Canada Chris,

You are 100% correct.  Don't let the novice public gambler get on here and tell you otherwise.  Add that talent in reading games, plus a proper money management system and you can build enormous wealth for you and your loved ones.  The public does not make money gambling, don't let them fool you.  Opposite live movement is the way to go.  Not only with pro football but in all sports.  Pro Baseball is actually the best as I have been tracking reverse line movements for 10+ years.  I was able to quit my job last year after I build a large enough bankroll to provide income.  MONEY MANAGEMENT is the 2nd key in your betting that is even more important then picking the WINNERS.  Keep track of your wins and losses using that theory, track your income, become your own CEO of YOUR money.

You will become a wealthy man.  Trust me, like I said 10+ years of experience. You are very smart.  You may not win every week, but in Pro FB I've tracked it at 59.3%. (using roughly the same theory)
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by PrizePicker:

Canada Chris,

You are 100% correct.  Don't let the novice public gambler get on here and tell you otherwise.  Add that talent in reading games, plus a proper money management system and you can build enormous wealth for you and your loved ones.  The public does not make money gambling, don't let them fool you.  Opposite live movement is the way to go.  Not only with pro football but in all sports.  Pro Baseball is actually the best as I have been tracking reverse line movements for 10+ years.  I was able to quit my job last year after I build a large enough bankroll to provide income.  MONEY MANAGEMENT is the 2nd key in your betting that is even more important then picking the WINNERS.  Keep track of your wins and losses using that theory, track your income, become your own CEO of YOUR money.

You will become a wealthy man.  Trust me, like I said 10+ years of experience. You are very smart.  You may not win every week, but in Pro FB I've tracked it at 59.3%. (using roughly the same theory)

 

PROVE IT!

Nothing makes me more ill than some doofus who comes in here and sells a 59.3% system success rate without sharing it with everyone. Bottom line is that you are fooling yourself and trying to fool most of the board representing a mathematically illogical concept.

Reverse line move betting is nothing more than another uselss hat to hang on a wall of hope.

Imagine the MILLIONS of dollars that could be made just simply betting against the line moves?...yeah...nobody ever noticed line moves before..NOBODY EVER thought that this could be an opportunity to FOOL Vegas...

59.3%....I can't believe the morons of the world 

 
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You may want to take a look at Oakland Raiders.  I am playing them today.

Line opened at 4.  65% on KC at HOME.  Down to 3.5.

Oakland, Detroit, Washington, Minnesota for me today.  Not Cleveland, but good luck. I usually don't do opp line movements when the spread is over 6 for a home team
 
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Posted: #20
week one there were i believe 6 dog wins and  4 won on the ML
week two i say there will be much more at almost a 3-1 advantage
 
My prediction
 
so all dogs must be reviewed closely !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! and those ML's are awaing the correct decisions
 
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Posted: #21
Another thing there Mr. Money Mgt and system expert...if you have a system play...what the phuck is the point of NEEDING "talent to read games" as you say in your post....either you PLAY a system which is based on such a small sample of data(from a mathematical perspective) and HOPE to get LUCKY...or you do like the rest of the people who MAKE money doing this: you analyze and pick spots based on fact, not fiction.
Money management is key...another "I'm so wise, I live on a yacht and have real estate to sell you" quotation...
 
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Posted: #22
love the thought behind it but maybe i am the sucker but i am hitting NO hard today with the bills on the 1 pm games
 
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Mick,

The reason it isn't done more successfully is because of who is doing it. 95% of gamblers are gamblers.  They win one, and raise the bet down the road, and don't bet just 3-5% of their bankroll per day.  I don't want to start it on here because I don't have enough time to play every weekend.  Plus, unlike before this website has WAY to many people anymore.   Your post get lost in the first 2 minutes.  Back during baseball season last year I did do it.  I was successful.  Anyone who was around would tell you the same thing.

The reason a majority of you fail is because of money management you gamble.  PERIOD.  You think you have a "LOCK" and you risk more.  

Why change the amount you bet EVER?  If you are confident enough to risk 100 dollars on a game why not 300?  You obviously aren't that confident.  Find a value, and bet it every game. 


ALSO --- move ALL your money you are willing to gamble in an entire season and start from there.  This will help money management.  If you know, well if I go ALL IN here, and miss this game I can add more into my account later..Don't ever do that.

Put all $600 in at once, then that should help you when you want to go over board on agame.  Do you really want to blow an entire season of gambling in a week 2 game?

Put all your money into an account at once, practice money management, I don't care if you use reverse line movement or not, but the reason most people can never be sucessful is that reason.

Heck, Id rather pick 57% of the games, have good money management then pick 75% and have piss poor mgmt.

But whatever, good luck everyone.  Once again, this website has done nothing more then piss me off because of its childish remarks and BS gamblers, who just piss away money.
 
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Posted: #24
cc remember the public want lose every game you saw that yesterday in college started bad for public early then they caught up and finished 50 percent the same thing will happen 2day but i do believe the skins are a fade the public bet
 
 
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Posted: #25
Well, I appreciate everyone's opinions and advice here.
 
I'll be the first to say that I am still learning about the world of sports gambling, and I take advantage of every oppertunity I can to learn more.
 
Thank you
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