Last week we lost on SF and Buff, hit Baltimore and our small parlay on the over in Balt. and Buff games. Let's look at some numbers:
51 Det 7 3 2 31 6 18
-7 SF 4 4 3 13 2 19
SF opens up as a 7 pt fav currently the same or some books have 7.5, o/u is the same. Det is better in Off passing 3 vs4; def rushing 2 vs 3; and sagarin sched strength at 18 vs 19. Sf is better in off rushing 4 vs 7; Def passing 13 vs 31 and sagarin rank at 2 vs 19.
I have no playoff data where the opening line was 7 with this scenario so i go to regular season data and there have been 4 situations where the opening line on the game was -7 for the home and a similar situation. The scores of those games: A. 27/10 B. 29/3 C. 10/24 D. 9/13 .
What can we extract from history - 1. All games went under the opening over/under line, on game B. it was 54 pts the other games were in the 40's. The away team won the game straight up 2 out of the 4 games; Covered 3 times and lost - did not cover 1 time.
In the KC/Baltimore game the data is mixed - in that there were two similar situations - the home team won both games - they covered 1 time and did not cover the 2nd game.
My Plays:
1. Under 51 Detr/SF
2. Detroit +7
3. 6 pt Teaser under 57 Detr/SF to Balti +2.5 -120
Last week we lost on SF and Buff, hit Baltimore and our small parlay on the over in Balt. and Buff games. Let's look at some numbers:
51 Det 7 3 2 31 6 18
-7 SF 4 4 3 13 2 19
SF opens up as a 7 pt fav currently the same or some books have 7.5, o/u is the same. Det is better in Off passing 3 vs4; def rushing 2 vs 3; and sagarin sched strength at 18 vs 19. Sf is better in off rushing 4 vs 7; Def passing 13 vs 31 and sagarin rank at 2 vs 19.
I have no playoff data where the opening line was 7 with this scenario so i go to regular season data and there have been 4 situations where the opening line on the game was -7 for the home and a similar situation. The scores of those games: A. 27/10 B. 29/3 C. 10/24 D. 9/13 .
What can we extract from history - 1. All games went under the opening over/under line, on game B. it was 54 pts the other games were in the 40's. The away team won the game straight up 2 out of the 4 games; Covered 3 times and lost - did not cover 1 time.
In the KC/Baltimore game the data is mixed - in that there were two similar situations - the home team won both games - they covered 1 time and did not cover the 2nd game.
My Plays:
1. Under 51 Detr/SF
2. Detroit +7
3. 6 pt Teaser under 57 Detr/SF to Balti +2.5 -120
The teams are evenly matched up with one glaring exception -Det. Passing def is 31 out of 32 teams. But history has shown even when a team has a weak def passing rating like 31 - they can still win a game straight up and the under comes in. Should be a fun game to watch. BOL to ya bud
The teams are evenly matched up with one glaring exception -Det. Passing def is 31 out of 32 teams. But history has shown even when a team has a weak def passing rating like 31 - they can still win a game straight up and the under comes in. Should be a fun game to watch. BOL to ya bud
Line opened at 2.5 (madduxsports.com) and quickly jumped to 3.5 and currently 4.5 . Balti is better in Off rushing 1 vs 17 def rushing 13 vs 18 and sagarin rank 1 vs 5. KC is better Off passing 6 vs 21, Def passing 4 vs 5 and sagarin sched strength 11 vs 15.
A stated above in this situation - the data indicates the home team should win covering is a different matter - 1 data point indicated they should cover the other they did not. We see it often - money goes one direction it doesn't always pan out - you never really know. Sticking with my teaser above. once again good luck all
Line opened at 2.5 (madduxsports.com) and quickly jumped to 3.5 and currently 4.5 . Balti is better in Off rushing 1 vs 17 def rushing 13 vs 18 and sagarin rank 1 vs 5. KC is better Off passing 6 vs 21, Def passing 4 vs 5 and sagarin sched strength 11 vs 15.
A stated above in this situation - the data indicates the home team should win covering is a different matter - 1 data point indicated they should cover the other they did not. We see it often - money goes one direction it doesn't always pan out - you never really know. Sticking with my teaser above. once again good luck all
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