CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK THOUGHTS AND INSIGHTS

FINAL YTD (NFL):  71-44-4 YTD

NFL PLAYOFFS:  7-4 ATS

I am drafting this thread to talk about the games as I am getting closer to locking in the sides I will be playing on Sunday.  Strange weekend last weekend as the PUBLIC crushed Vegas, all teasers hitting in all the games, and I probably should have been a bit more fortunate but I also got incredibly lucky and that yielded a big payout for me after posting and hitting my FIRST HUGE PLAY ever.

Needless to say, the Bucs driving the field in like 40 seconds to score and cover the FH which I had a substantial amount on led me to a frenzied celebration in the middle of Whole Foods, where I was at the time.  I was able to also cash the evening game on the FH OVER but lost two games on Saturday.  If anything I did say the Texans would get mauled but played the FH where I predicted they might have 3 points total.  That punt return was untimely and represented their only score of the game.  I personally jumped all over Baltimore in the second half which helped, but really could have used the OVER in the GB/SF game.

On to this week...I am going to break these games down by what I feel are the most important things to consider.  I am waiting on some weather reports and line stability and will post plays over the next day or so...

Aren't you a Ravens fan / expert / specialty guy ??  Interested in your thoughts here 

KANSAS CITY vs. BALTIMORE (AFC CHAMPIONSHIP)

A couple of unknowns here one of which is how will the Ravens play in a home championship game, something they have never had the opportunity to host AND, how will KC play, with a road championship game which they have not yet had to embark on.  Also some question marks on the weather which is affecting the TOTAL to some degree (no pun intended).

The TOTAL opened at 50 and has come down to 44.5, reminiscent of the total last week between Buffalo and KC.  BUT...the Ravens have a FULL arsenal of receivers and LB's, the latter of which is arguably the best unit in the NFL.  The Ravens has the MOST sacks in the NFL this year but Mahomes is very mobile, as we all know, and the Ravens do struggle against some mobile QB's.  So I do think the Chiefs will be able to move the ball even against this stout defense.

Who was second in the NFL in sacks...yup, the Chiefs, who also had issues against mobile QB's, just see what Josh Allen did last week.  But I think the mismatch here will be with the Ravens receivers against the KC defensive backs who were solid last week against a team bereft of their wide receiver corps.  The Ravens will not only have all their receivers back, but good chance Mark Andrews also returns.  Regardless, Isaiah Likely is also very very good and the Chiefs are prone to giving up yards to the TE's.  You know who else is....the Ravens.

But the difference here will be that the Ravens will have all their LB's playing and so Kelce will NOT find the type of room he was seeing last week in Buffalo.  I expect him to have a good game, he's Travis Kelce after all, but not the type of advantages he saw last week.  Moreover, the Ravens gave up the third LEAST rushing yards to RB's and the way Pacheco runs won't trouble the Ravens D as much as most b/c they are very good tacklers (except on that punt return last week lol).

These teams have played the last 10 games to a 5-5 clip with a 5-5 ATS recorded as well.  So there isn't a big trend here.  Ignore people who post trends about past NFL playoff seasons that's silly with so many teams changing of the guards year after year.  The game has also gone over the total in 4 of the last 5 played in Baltimore.

I encourage everyone to do their own research, these are my thoughts and some of the analytics.  I have a HUGE play upcoming in this game but like I said I want to see some of the reports leading up to the game before posting which side I'll be backing.  You can't be a homer every week in the NFL and expect to win but I think I have a good gage for this matchup.

I'm not specialized in Ravens game but yes, just wrote it up.  Will also post a write up on the other game just finishing up the research there too.  Will post picks over next day or so but very open to comments and discussions here...

You probably don't want to hear all my angles. You would probably have to take an Excedrin. But I'm rolln' wif Baltimore & Detroit 

@GamzOver

 You kinda look like Ray Lewis.....

I am taking the Ravens and the Lions!

@KeyMaster

@KeyMaster

 Ray Ray won't steer you wrong, brother ! 

Ed and Ray are the Legends of the Game this week  Ogden, Boldin, Suggs also making a guest appearance too? 

@LAGameofInches

 3rd least? Seems like the run defense is a bit of a weakness. It will be interesting to see if we can stop Pacheco hard player to tackle . Other than that nice writeup thus far 

“…..Moreover, the Ravens gave up the third LEAST rushing yards to RB's and the way Pacheco runs won't trouble the Ravens D as much as most b/c they are very good tacklers (except on that punt return last week lol……..”

Not sure where you’re getting that info?    Ravens allowed 109.4 rush yds/game, ranked #14

@Biscuit

Did you have plays in these two games? Just wondering. 

Hi Europa

the only play I have so far is Pacheco Over 72’ rushing yards +135

he has easily surpassed that number in his last 3 games, and I figure that Reid will put more emphasis on ball control vs Ravens.    KC had the ball for only 24 minutes vs Bills, but they can’t get away with that ToP deficit vs Ravens

I’m still considering it, but the more I think about it, the more I like the ravens.   Since 2018 the Chiefs have played essentially an extra season, 16 playoff games.    Ravens may be in a good position to exploit the high mileage Chiefs on Sunday.

Not sure about the other game yet.    Who do you like?

Nice thread 

How you gonna be in Whole Foods when you have the First Huge Play out there

Nice hit man, hell of a call 

@G8RB8

 When you shop at whole foods you need big pay outs to afford the grocery bill 

On the straight bets, I do have Ravens -3 (-125) for 1.5 units, and crazy as Chiefs +3.5 (-105) for 1 unit. 49ers -7 (-105) for two units, and Ravens ML/49ers ML parlay for half unit. Plus some teasers on both sides of the two games. These plays are posted in my thread.

I like "Pacheco Over 72’ rushing yards +135", Pacheco is an awesome RB. Kansas City will have pretty tough time to cover the spread if he doesn't run well on Sunday. My top guess is, SF advancing to SB 58. And as to the other game, I think Baltimore has 60% to advance to the big dance. 

Feel free to drop by my thread or this thread with more of your takes. Best of luck, Biscuit!

OK Europa I will check out your thread

thanks for the write up LAGame, I agree with most of what you said

BOL 

I somehow got sick as a dog, I owe everyone the DET/SF write up too.  Apologies I will have something up ASAP.  

Pretty much know the direction I will be heading in these games so I'll also post the plays in a separate thread.

Just dont' want to do writeups half ass so I thought I'd put them here and the plays in another thread.

Regardless, I would be a LOT more attentive and engaged if I wasn't under the weather.

Because I have a girl who was nagging me to either go at that time or go later and I didn't want to miss the Chiefs/Bills game and wanted beers while watching lol.

You are CORRECT, the Ravens were 14th against the rush and to be fair, when I looked up that stat, it pulled up stats from 2022-2023 not the 2023 season, so I should have been more careful.  My apologies, doesn't change anything really except tell me to say nice play with Pacheco OVER Rushing Yards

But I can admit a mistake when I make one, still plagued by having played Dallas vs. the OVER in their game vs. GB.  

Be back shortly with the other writeup then posting plays in new thread when I lock them in personally.

Mahomes 9-1 against the spread as a PUP!!!!! NUFF SAID 

@LAGameofInches

 The Ravens and Chiefs game is a tough call. Ravens seem to have it all rolling and that defense is looking awesome. The Chiefs always seem to find the next gear and play up in these championship series. A coin toss for me.

I have just a gut feeling 49rs explode this week. The talent on Both sides is unmatched. If they can put it together, which I feel they will, it will be a blow out.

Apologies on delay in drafting this.  Been sick but kinda kills the mood of the thread lol.  I will also be posting plays today in a new thread for those who care...

DETROIT vs. SAN FRANCISCO

This game is pitting two of the top NFC teams in a game that I would, in years past, earmark as a mismatch.  But there is something special about this Lions team, destined maybe, but they seem to be playing great at the right time of the year and have a matchup I think they can do very well in.

Ironically, both teams average about the same rushing yards per game and I think they both lean on what got them here.  The difference is that the Lions seem to rush for MORE in the dome than on the road and SF can claim the same.  But there is only one home team here and I think SF will really want to keep time of possession.  Losing Deebo Samuel, I feel, will be felt on offense.

On defense, the Niners are, well, the Niners.  The Lions have a few guys on their offensive line playing banged up so that could actually hurt their running game and Goff's ability to get the ball downfield.  Since he is not quite as mobile as some of the other guys SF has had issues with, I do see some sacks for the Niners defense here.  As for the Lions, they have played a defensive scheme that is based on bending, not breaking.  And that has worked out great for them as they will want to hold on for a chance to win this game in the 4th quarter is how I see it.

I would be shocked if SF came out flat, but they are also strangely 0-6 ATS at home in their last 6.  I don't think we can turn a blind eye to that when the Lions are 8-2 ATS on the road.  BUT....the Lions are also 0-11 SU in the last 11 played in SF so the shock would be them winning outright.  The Lions were one of the best FH teams away from home so that is probably a big reason why they are so competent on the road.  SF is still top 10 FH scoring at home but they are interestingly the TOP away scoring offense in the FH.  So going to be tough to have a play on that FH even though I think SF comes out firing.

The Lions are 21st in sacks/game and the Niners 14th.  But if they can't get to Purdy I'm afraid he will find Kittle and Mc Cafferty to move the chains over and over again.  This is the only thing that worries me on the total.  The weather looks fine so might have a play there as well. SF gives up the LEAST penalty yards per game so that too is something to consider in a world filled with PI's, the Lions are 17th, so middle of the road.

We can look at all these stats and trends but what we can't take into account with analytics are the spirit of the teams.  I think this game will end up a bit closer than the Niners might want as Goff knows the Bay Area and the Niners well from growing up there and playing for the Rams.  Does that make a difference?  Will he be more relaxed and less prone to mistakes?  Those are some of the intangibles that I too will consider when posting the plays.

As always, comments welcome, and new thread upcoming.