Championship Weekend

Playoffs 7-3

Bengals-1

Philly -140 Moneyline

Philly 1st half -1

I liked the Bengals before it was “officially” announced from imaging that Mahomes has a high ankle sprain. Mahomes led the league with most throws outside the pocket. I’ll take the Bengals vs a less mobile Mahomes. Also, like the Bengals defensive coordinator to scheme up plays against a less mobile Patrick. 

I’ve been a huge fan of Purdy, but I think this is where it ends. I think it will be more uncomfortable for him on the road, and vs an even more challenging defensive pass rush. Philly pass rush is leaps in bounds above the #2 spot. Philly #1 DVOA vs the pass, and this isn’t the Cowboys secondary with missing/injured cornerbacks. I think the 49ers will be able to run the ball, but if they have to play from behind and Purdy has to start passing…it may smell trouble. I also like the Eagles first half spread. Eagles ATS first half record is 13-5, and they like to jump out quick. I may have some props for this game later on.

Good luck. Not much football left!

Good luck Mr. Freedo.  Like the Bengals play.  

@D-Town

Waiting for the Jalen Hurts rushing total to be released. Action has it at 47.5. Strong lean to the under…

Prop play #1:

Devonte Smith over 5.5 receptions +120 (MGM).

I was surprised this was plus money. He’s hit this 4 games in a row, and has 8 targets in 10 straight games. I expect more attention toward Brown, and the 49ers secondary isn’t as good defending the deep ball. I lean towards his passing yards too, waiting for other books to release numbers.  Was hoping for 64.5. I like this prop because I believe Hurts is going to have to pass more against the best run defense in all of football. Still leaning under Hurts rush total, a decision closer to game time if it gets bet up. 

Prop play #2:

Devonte Smith over 65.5 yards

I expect Smith to have at least 6 catches. At 12.6 Y/R, that’s 75.6 yards. Once again, I expect Philly to struggle with the run, will be tested with pressure, but Philly has the best o-line in the league.  The 49ers secondary is their weakness down field. 

Prop play #3:

Hurts under 47.5 rushing yards

Number’s simply too high imo. SF best at stopping the rush and great against qb’s rushing. Will add more if moved towards 50. Like this more than the other 2 props.

I heard a stat mentioned on ESPN that 20 of Mahomes' 41 TD passes were from outside of the pocket. Somehow that seems very important to me as without the ability to buy time for his receivers, his numbers wouldn't be nearly so good.

I wonder how many of his receptions were from outside of the pocket? I am thinking it could be in the 50% range too...though that is just a guess. So many questions about his mobility will be answered shortly after kickoff. 

great stuff Freedo! Like the 1H play and Eagles props a lot.

get 'em!

@Magic_Steam

Get that cheddar

[Quote: Originally Posted by Buffalobob89074]I heard a stat mentioned on ESPN that 20 of Mahomes' 41 TD passes were from outside of the pocket. Somehow that seems very important to me as without the ability to buy time for his receivers, his numbers wouldn't be nearly so good. I wonder how many of his receptions were from outside of the pocket? I am thinking it could be in the 50% range too...though that is just a guess. So many questions about his mobility will be answered shortly after kickoff.[/Quote

@Buffalobob89074

I was listening to a podcast earlier talking about his mobility. I can't remember exact stats, but his in the pocket numbers as far as accuracy were impressive. I've watched so many Mahomes games this year where he's came back in the 4th quarter or in close games. Constantly scrambling and making ridiculous throws on the run. Also, the thing I noticed the most is when he used his legs and picked up first downs. I'd like to see a stat on 3rd downs how many times he ran for a 1st down in the  4th quarter. Being an athlete when younger, I just think this dude can't be 100%. Especially after watching him that game in the 2nd half, and replaying the injury. For me, it's Bengals or pass, and I liked the Bengals vs the Chiefs secondary in the first place. GL this weekend. 

@MrFreedo

 BOL!  Leaning the same, but with spread.

@Boned860

 
Like the spread too. At -2.5 not 3…

Gl pal

@saigon

@vetdrm

LFG!

Last Prop: 

Joe Mixon TD (Even Money)!

LFG!