Hey all,
I started writing on a separate document in case something weird happened to the direct draft on Covers. I have some stat comparisons, but with the initial post I'm going to focus on angles to consider for this game. There may be another follow-up comment comparing some key stats, but I can't promise that. I don't have much time between work (and, with working from home, and a "flying off the top of the couch" kid that I have to watch out for).
Major Absences (No benefit to either team)
Ravens: Roquan Smith (LB) *not an official designation yet, but all points to this.
Chargers: Denzel Perryman (LB)
Both running games should feast tonight.
There's a few other Questionable designations that should clear up before game time, so an adjustment in analysis may be made. But although I consider Roquan a much better overall player than Perryman, Perryman is the best LBer against the run, so it's going to be a huge loss for the Chargers, who are just below average against defending the run.
The Ravens missing Smith might free up the middle more for the Chargers. Ladd McConkey could also feast here for the Chargers.
The Revenge Angle (Benefit to the Chargers)
The Chargers have two players on their current roster who are former Ravens. One of which is JK Dobbins, who has seen his high upside signing pay dividends for the Chargers. The other is Gus Edwards. The latter has specifically pointed out that he sees this game as something to prove.
Hayden Hurts, Eric Tomlinson, Tony Jefferson, Bradley Bozeman on a less significant level has also had ties to the Ravens, having played there at one time or another with the core of the current Ravens.
The Chargers took the same "revenge angle" when the team faced the Titans. Elijah Molden, Teair Tart, Hassan Haskins, Bud Dupree, and Kristian Fulton were all Titans last year, and have prospered under Minter's tutelage. It's possible that the Edwards (especially if what he has been quoted as saying) and Dobbins can carry that torch and excel in tonight's matchup. Jim Harbaugh's mantra of "who's got it better than us?" will be ringing through their heads.
Chargers vs. Ravens: Angles - A Messy Write-Up, but Worth Reading?
The Familiarity Angle (Benefit to the Chargers)
Greg Roman (Chargers OC) - He was the Ravens OC from '19-'22. He is familiar with Lamar Jackson -- both his strengths and weaknesses. It's not hard to believe that Jesse Minter is having talks with Roman on how to best gameplan against Jackson based on the intimate knowledge Roman has.
Joe Hortiz (Chargers GM) - He was the Director of Player Personnel, and chief personnel evaluator, for the Ravens' GM before he left. But he's also been with the Ravens organization since 1998. This is first year offering his services to another team, and he also has intimate knowledge of the Ravens' on field personnel. I would go so far as to say their coaching staff as well.
Jesse Minter (DC) also came up through the Ravens organization prior to going to Michigan. He's followed Jim since to the Chargers.
Marc Trestman, Andy Bischoff, Mike Devlin, and Corey Krawiec have all been part of a Ravens coaching staff at one point or another, but I haven't vetted when they were there.
The Competitive Angle (No benefit to either team)
Jim Harbaugh lost to his brother in the Super Bowl. What more do you need than that? The reason why Jim came back to the NFL (save the Michigan "scandal" thoughts aside) is that after winning a CFB national championship, his next goal was to win one at the pro level. Jim has had a history of being competitive with his brother outside of football too. I'm not saying it isn't there with John as well, but the fire is going to be there both ways. John knows his younger brother is competitive, and in interviews in the past he's mentioned the whole family is this way.
The All-Important Stats Angle
Chargers are 4-1 at home.
Ravens are 3-3 on the road. (This will also be their 2nd week on the road.)
Offensive: EPA/Play:
Ravens: 0.20 (higher overall offensive efficiency).
Chargers: 0.08.
Defensive: EPA/Play:
Ravens: 0.02 (slightly positive, leaning toward average).
Chargers: -0.11 (strong defensive efficiency).
Chargers are stronger against the pass, whereas the Ravens are better against the rush.
I expect the Ravens to pound the rock more and either design run plays for Lamar or let him play action to give the illusion of Lamar running and catching the Chargers secondary off guard. Which will be interesting, since as pointed out, the Chargers secondary is their strong suit.
Passing:
Ravens EPA/Pass: 0.36 (very effective passing game).
Chargers EPA/Pass: 0.10.
I'm not sure if the Ravens fan base travels well, but the Chargers have seen a shift for the better in home fan attendance. As a season ticket holder for the Chargers, I've seen the fanbase grow each year. They've been loud on defense, and the energy is intense. I expect this to actually benefit the Chargers like a true home crowd normally would. Angelenos -- and Southern Californians in general -- are less likely to want to deal with traffic to get to a destination when it's optional to attend. Unless people haven't taken the day off from work and are hitting up the tailgates early, I can see a scenario where most people don't attend tonight's game just to avoid the maddening traffic along the 405. Nobody wants to add an hour + of drive time. It's already rough just getting out of the stadium after a game. I won't be attending, but that's because Monday nights are never good for me (with a wife who works Monday nights, and myself needing to care for our kid).
So, long story now shorter -- not sure what the home crowd will be like for the Chargers for this particular night. But if they come out, it should definitely help them the way it did against the Bengals last week.
Other tidbits:
Ravens are 17-4 coming off of a loss in the Harbaugh era. And Lamar plays well in prime time. (ADVANTAGE RAVENS)
With Mack sitting out the last two games (he had a few snaps two games ago and sat the rest of the way),Tuli Tuipulotu has feasted. He has the most sacks in the entire NFL the past four games with 7 sacks. Assuming Mack suits up today (it's trending in that direction last I checked), it'll be the first time that Tuli will be playing alongside Bosa and Mack, on and off, for a full game. (They're not always on the field together, but that's even better. It keeps their legs fresh.) If Bud Dupree is active, then we might see some Nascar packages to force Lamar to get rid of the ball quickly or try to scramble out of the pocket. Derwin James will be key here.
I may add to this here and there, and then decide on a SIDES play.
For now I've got the following prop:
Quentin Johnston Anytime TD Score +215 ($50 to win $107.50)
Quentin Johnston has had 3 straight games with a touchdown coming into this game. His chemistry is building with Herbert, and this seems like a good bet against a weak Ravens pass defense.)
So what's the verdict?
Thank you for reading and providing follow-up questions, as well as your concern for my busy work schedule as pointed out in the initial post.
I don't have a verdict yet. I have a strong lean towards the Chargers, but want to review this a bit more to counter any inherent homer-ism I have. If you had asked me last week, I would've penciled this game as a loss for the Chargers. I was at the Charger game last Sunday against the Bengals, and night games hit different. The energy from the home crowd was effective. (I'll have to research what the Chargers primetime record is the past couple of years, but it may be an ineffectual stat considering the new coaching staff.)
Gun to my head, I would take the Chargers and the points.
The Ravens last two games were decided by 2 points or less, and that was with common opponents the Chargers have also faced.
Week 11
Ravens: 16
Steelers: 18
Week 10
Ravens: 35
Bengals: 34
In the games the Chargers have played against those common opponents:
Chargers: 34
Bengals: 27
Chargers: 10
Steelers: 20
I would say the game was much closer than the final score in the Bengals game. The Bengals flipped the script in the 2nd half and matched the Chargers 1st half intensity.
With the Steelers game, the Chargers lost both starting tackles (Pro Bowler, Rashawn Slater, and rookie/PFF standout Joe Alt). That really changed the trajectory of the game for the Chargers, who otherwise were keeping it close prior to their departures.
I think taking the points might be crucial here, but since it's not much, a ML play on either team makes sense. But maybe just slightly less so than the extra points.
More or less, the info I provided is to just help provide an informed decision either way, even though the info here heavily skews favor towards the Chargers. I'll take some counter arguments though, since we're all here to win
.
Nice writeup, 
One part though is that you don't want to force Lamar to scramble because those bull rushes don't work against him as he will burn you.
Do what Pittsburgh does and stay in your rush lanes and slowly collapse the pocket while eyeing him and react accordingly. Steelers frustrate him and get inside his head as they force him to think instead of react. The result is kablooey.
Nice writeup, One part though is that you don't want to force Lamar to scramble because those bull rushes don't work against him as he will burn you. Do what Pittsburgh does and stay in your rush lanes and slowly collapse the pocket while eyeing him and react accordingly. Steelers frustrate him and get inside his head as they force him to think instead of react. The result is kablooey.
The Chargers have had trouble containing mobile QBs in the past. One of their 3 losses was against the Murray-led Cardinals. But I would contend their defense has got better each week since then. (Even considering a torched 2nd half against the Bengals, but what are you going to do against Burrow throwing to Chase and Higgins? Good offenses eat, too.)
The Chargers run a lot of 3-safety structure (a big dime package), which allows them do multiple things post-snap. This why I hope they do as you say, and let a play develop (but for no more than 3-4 seconds), just to disguise and reassemble their D package.
Good stuff bud and I agree Ravens will try and pound the rock, look for LJ to have a few more designated runs than usual, and as an aside : the Ravens drafted Hayden Hurts ahead of Lamar.
I don't think the Chargers will have an answer to containing Jackson; they can only hope to limit the damage and hope their 3d best red zone defense in the league can keep them out of the end zone for 6.
Also, why did we both spell Hayden Hurst's name wrong? lol Damn autocorrect. I didn't recall that about Hurst. He hasn't quite panned out the way the Chargers have hoped, but mainly due to him not actually being on the field much. Hortiz obviously liked him.
Btw, I know Red is a Ravens fan, but I got the impression you are as well. True?
This is entirely too articulate and well thought out for this forum, however, with the help of a dictionary and my wife helping me pronounce some of the words i’ve chosen to follow you on Quentin Johnson scoring… good luck, thanks for putting in the work
God speed. A low risk, high reward bet, imo.
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