Took a few weeks off as my cappin wasn't going the way I liked, analyzed a
lot of what I was doing wrong in the meantime. Conclusions? I'm a very
situational better, I bet on spots as opposed to the matchups, one thing I was
doing way too much was betting bad teams in good spots instead of betting good
teams in good spots, I will adjust moving forward.
Cincinatti Bengals @ Miami Dolphins
Huge motivational edge to the Dolphins here. After starting off 3-0, the
Dolphins are facing a near must-win game to avoid going 3-5 and several games
behind the Patriots in the division.
The Bengals meanwhile, are off a blowout
win now possessing a 2.5 game lead in the division. This game means very little to them as they will have one eye on travelling to Baltimore next week.
Although the Bengals have been pretty dominant at home this year, they have been mediocre on the road.
Loss at Chicago
Loss at Cleveland
Win at Bills by 3 (overtime)
Win at Detroit by 3
This game means much more to the Dolphins. They are facing the 0-7 Bucs next week so can put everything they have into tonight's game whereas stated above, the Bengals have divisional rival Ravens on deck.
Dolphins are 12-4 ATS as a home underdog after two straight losses (Last 16).
Dolphins +3 - 3 units
Dolphins ML +137 - 1 unit
Weeks 1-4: -29.44 units
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Took a few weeks off as my cappin wasn't going the way I liked, analyzed a
lot of what I was doing wrong in the meantime. Conclusions? I'm a very
situational better, I bet on spots as opposed to the matchups, one thing I was
doing way too much was betting bad teams in good spots instead of betting good
teams in good spots, I will adjust moving forward.
Cincinatti Bengals @ Miami Dolphins
Huge motivational edge to the Dolphins here. After starting off 3-0, the
Dolphins are facing a near must-win game to avoid going 3-5 and several games
behind the Patriots in the division.
The Bengals meanwhile, are off a blowout
win now possessing a 2.5 game lead in the division. This game means very little to them as they will have one eye on travelling to Baltimore next week.
Although the Bengals have been pretty dominant at home this year, they have been mediocre on the road.
Loss at Chicago
Loss at Cleveland
Win at Bills by 3 (overtime)
Win at Detroit by 3
This game means much more to the Dolphins. They are facing the 0-7 Bucs next week so can put everything they have into tonight's game whereas stated above, the Bengals have divisional rival Ravens on deck.
Dolphins are 12-4 ATS as a home underdog after two straight losses (Last 16).
I read your write ups and like your style, but respectfully disagree. "motivation" only goes so far when there is a huge mismatch physically. in this case, the cinci d-line vs the miami o-line. tannenhill has one of the highest sack percentages in the league, the o-line was already in shambles before jonathan martin had his breakdown and now they are facing one of the best d-lines in the league? coming into the season i thought cinci was overrated, but they have impressed me over the last few weeks and dalton has played much better. too many mismatches on the field for cinci, will take lucky breaks and turnovers for miami to keep this close, cover and possibly win. no value in the fins tonight imo.
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I read your write ups and like your style, but respectfully disagree. "motivation" only goes so far when there is a huge mismatch physically. in this case, the cinci d-line vs the miami o-line. tannenhill has one of the highest sack percentages in the league, the o-line was already in shambles before jonathan martin had his breakdown and now they are facing one of the best d-lines in the league? coming into the season i thought cinci was overrated, but they have impressed me over the last few weeks and dalton has played much better. too many mismatches on the field for cinci, will take lucky breaks and turnovers for miami to keep this close, cover and possibly win. no value in the fins tonight imo.
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