Cincinnati @
Houston:
Cincinnati SU/ATS:
let’s look at how Marvin Lewis’s Bengals
have performed vs teams over .500 this season(won/lost SU 1-7: Baltimore 1 (L) 16-24, Baltimore 2 (L) 24-31,
Houston (L) 19-20, Pittsburgh 1 (L) 17-24. Pittsburgh (L) 7-35, Tennessee (W)
24-17, SF (L) 8-13, Denver (L) 22-24.
Vs. playoff teams Cincy is 0-7.
ATS vs Playoff teams Cincy is 1-5-1.
SU/ATS: Marvin Lewis: Marvin Lewis is 0-2 SU in the
post season. Lewis is 0-2 ATS in the
post-season. Kubiak has not been a HC in
the NFL post season, and has no record as such.
Cincy Run D: Cincy’s run D is ranked 10th in
the league, and this seems somewhat impressive, but is it? Up until November 27th (vs.
Cleveland) Cincy was allowing only 3.5 yards per attempt on the ground (which
would be ranked in a 3 way tie for 1st in the NFL right now), but
since that game Cincy has allowed an average of 4.8 per rush attempt (which
would be ranked 5th from the bottom of NFL defenses for the season
right now). That is 1.3 more yards per
attempt…why is this you ask? Simple;
Cincy’s #1 gap plugging D-lineman (Sims) went down for the season. Going against Houston’s 2nd ranked offense that averages 44.9%
(in last 3 games) rush plays….not to mention (and A. Foster) who averages 4.4 yards per
attempt… it could be a long day for Cincy’s fragile run defense.
Houston Run D:
only New Orleans (b/c teams playing from
behind), San Fran, and Atlanta faced less rush attempts than Houston did, and
for good reason… Houston allowed just 96 total yards per game on the ground
this season (4.1 yards per attempt).
Houston’s D-line has not incurred any major injuries in the last couple
months. Wade Phillips is back as the
Defensive play caller (not counting the season Finale that was basically
meaningless) , with Phillips calling the D plays, Houston only allowed 15.9
points per game.
Two rookie QB’s
face off: This is the first NFL
playoff game where two true rookie QB’s will face off against each other. There are a few notable differences in what
these two will be facing: Dalton will
face the # 3 pass defense that has also allowed a league best 51.9% (up to 59%
in L3, but that was either without Wade Phillips calling the plays, or it was
in a game that was meaningless) completion
percentage. TJ Yates will face the NFL’s
#9 pass defense, who has allowed 59.18
(up to 63% in L3). As far as QB efficiency
goes, I know of no better bench marking system than standard QB rating; which
both QB’s are dead even (Yates 80.7 vs. Dalton’s 80.4), though you could make
an argument that Yates faced rougher Defenses (4 of his 6 games were vs top 20
defenses, and 3 of those 6 were top 12 overall defenses). The big difference is the opposition these
two rookies are going to face. Dalton is
facing basically one of the (if not the) best defenses that the NFL has to
offer.
GL
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