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#1
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals
When you get two non-playoff teams playing each other in week 17 during the final week of the season, it’s important to see if you can find if a certain team has a significant motivational edge. These two teams played three weeks ago in Cleveland in a game the Browns won 27-19. However, the Bengals significantly outplayed the Browns for the entirety of the match.
The Bengals had 10 more first downs, 118 more total yards, and won the time of possession battle by 10 minutes. The difference in the game however, was decided on 3 separate occasions. The first being an unlucky tipped pass for a pick 6. One of Dalton’s passes that was right on the money of his receiver, was instead dropped and tipped right into a defender for a pick 6 and 7 points the other way. Two other scoring drives, the Bengals drove the ball down to Cleveland’s 1 yard line twice, and came up with 3 total points. A few inches were the difference between 14 points and 3 points for the Bengals. Cincinnati outplayed the Browns in every statistical category, but the final score.
What I like most about this play however, is what one of the leaders of the Bengals had to say immediately after the game. “We should’ve won that game, but the best thing about it is we get to see them in three more weeks in Cincinnati. They’ve got to come to us. I’m excited and I can’t wait.” – Joe Mixon. A lot of teams mail it in on week 17 and look forward to the off-season. The Bengals won't be one of those teams.
The Bengals unlike the Browns, have something to play for. Additionally, Joe Mixon is 25 yards away from becoming the first Bengals running-back to have back to back 1,000 yard seasons since 2010. Tyler Boyd is also 13 yards away from his second consecutive 1,000 yard season. For this week 17 game, it’s clear to me who has the motivational edge. Given how these teams played a few weeks ago, I could also argue the Bengals have the match-up edge as well. The Bengals very well could be -3 in this game just off those two factors alone, but aren't due to the Bengals 1-14 record which is influenced by starting a 3rd string QB for 4 games.
The Browns just had their biggest game of the year last weekend. They got up to play the Ravens who is their divisional rival and a team that’s won 10 straight. They played hard and even had a lead close to halftime. In the end however, the Ravens outclassed them and won 31-15. Regardless of if they won or lost, that was the final meaningful game for Cleveland this season, as this one means very little to them - given they aren't playing for the playoffs and they just beat this team already a few weeks ago. On the other hand, Cincinnati has been looking forward to this game for 3 weeks. They've also been playing a lot better since Andy Dalton has been reinserted into the lineup out-gaining 3 of their 4 opponents including the Jets, Browns, and Patriots.
- Bengals +3 -125 / ML + 135
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