CLV should DEFINITELY select Baker Mayfield

Question

This article from Football Outsiders says BM is clearly more likely to be a successful NFL QB than Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen or Josh Allen. It says that "functional mobility" is the single most important criterion in predicting NFL success.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/qbase-2018

BM has the fourth-highest QBASE projection dating back to 1997. He trails only Rivers, Palmer and McNabb. He outranks Wilson, P. Manning, Mariota, Leftwich, Rodgers and Roethlisberger.

I played around with FO's numbers. I omitted the "Adequate Starter" numbers because they were all about 20-29%. I added the "Upper Tier" and "Elite" and divided by "Bust." My ratios:

BM 1.67

SD 0.37

JR 0.61

JA 0.27

Elite - Bust

BM (1.1)

SD (47.8)

JR (36.5)

JA (57.5)

My own Passing Power Index (YDS -50*INT)/PA

BM 8.76

SD 7.24

JR 6.87

JA 6.19

NCAA 2017-2018 Passing Efficiency Rankings

BM 1

SD 26

JR 28

JA 72

I am keeping my fingers crossed that for once, CLV will avoid another QB bust. I hope that the Manziel fiasco will not have poisoned the "short QB pool" forever.

DogbiteWilliams · Answer

This article from Football Outsiders says BM is clearly more likely to be a successful NFL QB than Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen or Josh Allen. It says that "functional mobility" is the single most important criterion in predicting NFL success.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/qbase-2018

BM has the fourth-highest QBASE projection dating back to 1997. He trails only Rivers, Palmer and McNabb. He outranks Wilson, P. Manning, Mariota, Leftwich, Rodgers and Roethlisberger.

I played around with FO's numbers. I omitted the "Adequate Starter" numbers because they were all about 20-29%. I added the "Upper Tier" and "Elite" and divided by "Bust." My ratios:

BM 1.67

SD 0.37

JR 0.61

JA 0.27

Elite - Bust

BM (1.1)

SD (47.8)

JR (36.5)

JA (57.5)

My own Passing Power Index (YDS -50*INT)/PA

BM 8.76

SD 7.24

JR 6.87

JA 6.19

NCAA 2017-2018 Passing Efficiency Rankings

BM 1

SD 26

JR 28

JA 72

I am keeping my fingers crossed that for once, CLV will avoid another QB bust. I hope that the Manziel fiasco will not have poisoned the "short QB pool" forever.

benhogan76 · Answer

Clev should draft Barkley 1 he is by far the most talented player who will help right away.  I don&#x27;t get the idea of taking a QB at 1 if there clearly isn&#x27;t a top 1.

BoldBets · Answer

Looks like Cleveland is making the right choice. Mayfield just went to -200 to go first overall on BOL.

DoubleUp4Life · Answer

&#xA; &#xA;Wow... I am shocked .... Wonder if the Browns will regret this for a long time

benhogan76 · Answer

It would be a mind blow if it wasn&#x27;t the Browns.

DogbiteWilliams · Answer

Sporting News claims CLV will select Mayfield:https://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/news/nfl-draft-2018-browns-pick-baker-mayfield-number-one-josh-allen-sam-darnold-josh-rosen/2vmhic2g1kl01e0q9ar3qe9ejI hope they got it right.  This is the first year I will ever watch the draft show.  I am even recording it on my DVR.

BaseballisLife1 · Answer

Browns are about to draft another BUST if that's the case. This Browns organization doesn't know what their doing...Ask Johnny Manziel how that worked out....both the same type of QB's...can't throw deep and accurate yet all they try to do is run around. That doesn't work in the nfl. Some organizations just never learn.

And Barkley isn't nfl protential. Unless you call 21 attempts with 44 yards rushing, nfl ready. Spotlight was on him, and he didn't show up to play...i'll pass.

DogbiteWilliams · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by BaseballisLife1]  Browns are about to draft another BUST if that&#x27;s the case. This Browns organization doesn&#x27;t know what their doing...Ask Johnny Manziel how that worked out....both the same type of QB&#x27;s...can&#x27;t throw deep and accurate yet all they try to do is run around. That doesn&#x27;t work in the nfl. Some organizations just never learn. &#xD;&#xA;And Barkley isn&#x27;t nfl protential. Unless you call 21 attempts with 44 yards rushing, nfl ready. Spotlight was on him, and he didn&#x27;t show up to play...i&#x27;ll pass.   [/Quote]I suggest you actually read the sharp article linked in the initial post and then reassess your comment.  Mayfield should NOT be compared with Manziel.

DoubleUp4Life · Answer

Dogbite the username above was created to troll ....Dont waste ur time

BaseballisLife1 · Answer

If trolling is me being entitled to my own opinion. Then I don&#x27;t know what to tell you guys...

jimmydafreak · Answer

I like Mayfield as well.  His height is a bit of a concern, but I think he has a chance to be really good at the next level.  I don&#x27;t think Cleveland can go wrong with Mayfield.

jimmydafreak · Answer

&#xA;John Dorsey had absolutely nothing to do with drafting Johnny Manziel.  Dorsey has only been on the job for 5 months.  So what a previous GM did or didn&#x27;t do to your satisfaction is completely inconsequential.

wallstreetcappers · Answer

Haley is a great OC but he has not coached a new kid in many years and the last one he did (that louse Matt Leinart) was not good. I am not sure how a new QB will fare with how demanding and controlling Haley is.

BaseballisLife1 · Answer

If anything I&#x27;d take Josh Allen, he seems like the most ready QB out of them all. And whoever drafts Sam Darnold, I&#x27;ll pray for you. Being from AZ, I know all about the USC QB&#x27;s. They play very well in college, but then that doesn&#x27;t quite transition over to the nfl.

DogbiteWilliams · Answer

FO&#x27;s analysis - Allen vs. Mayfield:Chance of a complete NFL bustJA    62.7%BM   29.3%Chance of attaining Elite NFL statusJA     5.2%BM  28.2%The above ratio computes to 5.42; i.e. there is a 5.42 times chance that Mayfield will become an NFL superstar compared to Allen.I trust the collective wisdom of the Football Outsiders analysts more than somebody who claims that Baseball is Life.

DogbiteWilliams · Answer

CLV  picked Mayfield.  Now I hope they also nail the #4 pick.

hoopsnyc · Answer

horrible pick , they could have got him at #4- barkley was the pick - qb is a crap shoot-barkley a definite.

kevmode · Answer

You got your wish now we just have to wait and see how it plays out.

hoopsnyc · Answer

giants and jets probably wouldn&#x27;t take him and if they do ,the other qb&#x27;s could be just as good

DogbiteWilliams · Answer

I am disapppointed with Ward at #4.  I preferred Fitzpatrick and many analysts liked Chubb.  I hope regional bias didn&#x27;t screw up their analysis.Now it&#x27;s up to both of them to produce.

DogbiteWilliams · Answer

Baker Mayfield has fourth highest QBASE ever recorded by Football Outsiders.https://www.milehighreport.com/2018/3/24/17159034/baker-mayfield-has-fourth-highest-qbase-ever

DogbiteWilliams · Answer

Mayfield is listed third on CLV&#x27;s QB depth chart behind Tyrod Taylor and Drew Stanton.Based on Hue Jackson&#x27;s insane decision to start Kizer in 15 of 16 games last season, there is no telling how well Mayfield would have to play in practice and pre-season to get a start.I hope it doesn&#x27;t take injuries.

DoubleUp4Life · Answer

&#xA; &#xA;Most teams always put the rookie qb 3rd on depth chart after the draft ...its just a respect for the Vets thing ...Means nothing moving forward

DogbiteWilliams · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life]  &#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Most teams always put the rookie qb 3rd on depth chart after the draft ...its just a respect for the Vets thing ...Means nothing moving forward   [/Quote]Thanks.  I did not know that.

CLV should DEFINITELY select Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield has fourth highest QBASE ever recorded by Football Outsiders.

Baker Mayfield has fourth highest QBASE ever recorded by Football Outsiders.

Hot Forum Topics