I'd like to ask the old timers/experts to chime in on this investment.
Colts sitting at +12,500 odds to win Super Bowl, obviously they probably wouldn't even reach the big game, however, they have a realistic shot at playoffs. The only other teams I would consider in contention (2 W/C berths):
Pittsburgh (no Big Ben next 3 weeks)
Cincy (very tough schedule remainder of season)
San Diego (chokers?)
Seems like a good investment to make this play and hedge immediately if they make it in since they'll be on the road. Can make a few quick bucks?
Please respond with your thoughts.
Thanks!
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Hey guys,
I'd like to ask the old timers/experts to chime in on this investment.
Colts sitting at +12,500 odds to win Super Bowl, obviously they probably wouldn't even reach the big game, however, they have a realistic shot at playoffs. The only other teams I would consider in contention (2 W/C berths):
Pittsburgh (no Big Ben next 3 weeks)
Cincy (very tough schedule remainder of season)
San Diego (chokers?)
Seems like a good investment to make this play and hedge immediately if they make it in since they'll be on the road. Can make a few quick bucks?
Monkee, stop smoking whatever you are smoking and save your money. Maybe in a couple of years when they have a running back besides Donald Brown and another receiver besides Reggie Wayne, well maybe a couple more receivers because by then Batman Wayne will be too old.
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Monkee, stop smoking whatever you are smoking and save your money. Maybe in a couple of years when they have a running back besides Donald Brown and another receiver besides Reggie Wayne, well maybe a couple more receivers because by then Batman Wayne will be too old.
The problem with your hedge idea is that they will always be on the road and heavy dogs in a playoff game, so you're going to have to lay huge ml juice with a favorite.
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The problem with your hedge idea is that they will always be on the road and heavy dogs in a playoff game, so you're going to have to lay huge ml juice with a favorite.
Saints are only +2500 now since they've been surfing yet they are 5-5 with a bunch of other teams battling for a wildcard spot whereas the colts doesn't have nearly as much competition.
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Saints are only +2500 now since they've been surfing yet they are 5-5 with a bunch of other teams battling for a wildcard spot whereas the colts doesn't have nearly as much competition.
Alright guys, I need covers help. This is probably the biggest hedge I personally will ever have.
I have $650 to win $84,500 on Colts to win the Super Bowl. As dumb as it may sound, it was actually a hedge as I had $1000 on San Diego Chargers to win Super Bowl and I knew either one of these teams would make the wild card.
With that said, I'm thinking Baltimore will be at least -7 favorites and ML around -300.
I'm thinking about doing the following:
$15,000 to win $5,000 ML, $5,000 on Straight up Spread and probably $5K on Baltimore/Alabama teaser.
Thoughts? I know we have 2 weeks and spread to be determined, but this is probably my biggest hedge in my lifetime and I would appreciate your support/input.
Thanks fellas
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Alright guys, I need covers help. This is probably the biggest hedge I personally will ever have.
I have $650 to win $84,500 on Colts to win the Super Bowl. As dumb as it may sound, it was actually a hedge as I had $1000 on San Diego Chargers to win Super Bowl and I knew either one of these teams would make the wild card.
With that said, I'm thinking Baltimore will be at least -7 favorites and ML around -300.
I'm thinking about doing the following:
$15,000 to win $5,000 ML, $5,000 on Straight up Spread and probably $5K on Baltimore/Alabama teaser.
Thoughts? I know we have 2 weeks and spread to be determined, but this is probably my biggest hedge in my lifetime and I would appreciate your support/input.
I wish you the best but yours isn't really hedging. What happens if Colts win the first game? You will be out a large sum of money with the original bet is still hanging.
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I wish you the best but yours isn't really hedging. What happens if Colts win the first game? You will be out a large sum of money with the original bet is still hanging.
Yeah, I know. That's why I'm only willing to risk $25K at most, I honestly should probably cap out at $20K. Which would leave me with $60-65K incase Luck does get lucky.
I just don't think Andrew Luck can pull a rabbit out of his hat at coldy Baltimore with Ray Lewis' energy in the building.
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Yeah, I know. That's why I'm only willing to risk $25K at most, I honestly should probably cap out at $20K. Which would leave me with $60-65K incase Luck does get lucky.
I just don't think Andrew Luck can pull a rabbit out of his hat at coldy Baltimore with Ray Lewis' energy in the building.
I see what you are saying but in a way, you are risking $25k to protect your $650 initial investment which doesn't make a lot of sense. Even if Bal should win the game, you are not making a penny if they couldn't cover the spread. The downside is too hugh for you to do anything at this point unless the Colts make it to SB. GL
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I see what you are saying but in a way, you are risking $25k to protect your $650 initial investment which doesn't make a lot of sense. Even if Bal should win the game, you are not making a penny if they couldn't cover the spread. The downside is too hugh for you to do anything at this point unless the Colts make it to SB. GL
First of all, before you do any of this have you considered the possibility that your online book might stiff you in the event you win?
If you are betting to protect your investment, each playoff round you will have to make a larger bet to make up for what you lost on the previous round's game. Seems problematic, ESP if you consider that the Colts aren't likely to be favored against anyone in the playoffs, therefore putting ML odds as very juice heavy.
My rec is to wait and see if they make it through the first round to start hedging.
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First of all, before you do any of this have you considered the possibility that your online book might stiff you in the event you win?
If you are betting to protect your investment, each playoff round you will have to make a larger bet to make up for what you lost on the previous round's game. Seems problematic, ESP if you consider that the Colts aren't likely to be favored against anyone in the playoffs, therefore putting ML odds as very juice heavy.
My rec is to wait and see if they make it through the first round to start hedging.
why are you betting Blt ATS. if Blt wins by 1-6, which is very possible, you lost both bets and a lot of money. if you are trying to hedge to some degree, you need to figure out how much you want to take away from that initial bet and take the favorite on the ML.
ralph makes a good point about making sure you get paid but i strongly disagree with waiting to see if they get past Blt to start. that's going to be a rough matchup for Indy and Indy isn't very good so i doubt they get past Blt. of course, if they do, that second round Ml price will be huge. and the favorite ML price only goes up from there so you need to consider that if they get to the super bowl and lose, you are spending a lot of money in ML hedges.
keep in mind i don't bet futures so this isn't my area. maybe vanzack or someone who does this kind of thing can help.
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why are you betting Blt ATS. if Blt wins by 1-6, which is very possible, you lost both bets and a lot of money. if you are trying to hedge to some degree, you need to figure out how much you want to take away from that initial bet and take the favorite on the ML.
ralph makes a good point about making sure you get paid but i strongly disagree with waiting to see if they get past Blt to start. that's going to be a rough matchup for Indy and Indy isn't very good so i doubt they get past Blt. of course, if they do, that second round Ml price will be huge. and the favorite ML price only goes up from there so you need to consider that if they get to the super bowl and lose, you are spending a lot of money in ML hedges.
keep in mind i don't bet futures so this isn't my area. maybe vanzack or someone who does this kind of thing can help.
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