All Forums | NFL Betting

Conference Game Day Scattershooting...

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 3426
Posts: 75
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2004
Posts: 14064
Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by elite19:

Smack,

Normally I enjoy your post but not sure how to say this but your wrong. Your handicapping trends and data that's not really That important. Your failing to handicap This game. Past results mean nothing if you fail to  take into account the present data, which you have. Chiefs will expose titans secondary. Chiefs are the #1 team In NFL and will 100% take control of this game early. KC leads early and now titans play from behind. Titans winning 4 straight road games is statically unlikely. Titans lose by DD. No egos here, for the sake of bankrolls take this info to heart.

God Bless


Elite19, my friend...I greatly appreciate your heartfelt counsel on this game...however, I do find it very interesting that while you advise me to NOT take statistics and trends into account while handicapping...you list one of the oldest and simplest stats as a point to buttress your arguments...

The Titans have a tried and true formula that has beaten just about any type of team they have faced recently...they control the time of possession...limit the offensive possessions by their opposition...and grind them into dust with the best bruiser in the game right now...

Baltimore...finesse team with good defense...crushed...

Patriots...elite defensive team with the GOAT...crushed...

And now the Chiefs...another finesse team with a defense not NEARLY as good as the Ravens or the Patriots...

If you read my thread, Mahomes does NOT play well in cold weather...these stats are not anomalies, my friend...they are COLD HARD FACTS that you discount at your bankroll's risk...

Please...reconsider your position....you are giving 7/7.5 points in a game that will feature a lot of running...if the weather is any indicator at all....10-20 degrees and the wind is now kicking up...Mahomes will be colder than he has ever been...and if this game gets down to which team can run the best...

It is game over...Titans win my friend...

Don't burn your cash...

PM for the skinny on the down low
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2015
Posts: 4483
Posted: #27

Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

RJ Bell posted some interesting research ...Patrick Mahomes worst games ...are his 5 COLDEST games...Denver ......... 17 degrees.........QB Rating 68...Baltimore ......27 degrees.........QBR...62...Indianopolis.. 27 degrees.........QBR..63....Chargers .......39 degrees.........QBR...66...Arizona .........42 degrees.........QBR 68...Things that make you go ...HMMMMMMM.....

 

You're really trying to talk yourself into your Titan bet, aren't you?

 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2004
Posts: 14064
Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by BlackCannons:

 

You're really trying to talk yourself into your Titan bet, aren't you?


I "talked" myself into it the minute the lines came out after the Ravens game...lol...


It is an easy call...in a league that has discounted the running game and running backs...discounted defense and promoted offense...teams that win in the playoffs have historically been good running teams with excellent defense...


PM for the skinny on the down low
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2012
Posts: 2610
Posted: #29

This is what will kill KC, a little talked about stat...opponent rushing first downs per game. They are 26th in the league and the worst playoff team. They allow 7 first downs by rushes per game, so if Tenn can stick to their game plan of grinding the run game, KC might be in trouble. And while KC is 4th in passing TD per game, Tenn is not far behind at 8th. 

 

 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2004
Posts: 14064
Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by arrgy:

This is what will kill KC, a little talked about stat...opponent rushing first downs per game. They are 26th in the league and the worst playoff team. They allow 7 first downs by rushes per game, so if Tenn can stick to their game plan of grinding the run game, KC might be in trouble. And while KC is 4th in passing TD per game, Tenn is not far behind at 8th. 

 


An excellent contribution, my friend...I'm a bit chagrined that I did not spot that particular one in my research....

Well done...

Those who ignore these important details do so at their own bankroll's peril...

And speaking of "important details"...the Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones missed last weeks game with a calf injury...he is active today but if that calf injury flares up or gets too cold and locks down...that will be a HUGE plus for the Titans...

Watch him carefully in the game for how he is performing as well...first game back after an injury is usually touch and go...and in this weather it is more so...

PM for the skinny on the down low
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2015
Posts: 5034
Posted: #31

So do you also like the under Smack?  1st half under 25?

 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2004
Posts: 14064
Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by Rowdie22:

So do you also like the under Smack?  1st half under 25?


I'm hesitant to play the under in this game for the full game but might consider the UNDER 1H at 25 for a play...

The scenario being the tough weather conditions keeping the score down and it's usually the 2H before Henry starts to wear down the defenses for long runs and the business decisions start to kick in for those defensive backs...

No official play though...

PM for the skinny on the down low
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2012
Posts: 2610
Posted: #33

Your best bet in the AFC game if you think it will be close...

Team with the most punts: Titans -150

Tenn, for as great an offense as it has, is 4th in the league in punts per game, averaging 5 and that goes up almost a full punt on the road. Last week they had 6.

KC,  on the other hand is at the opposite end, they average 3 per game. One of the main reasons why is because KC is #1 in the league in penalty first downs per game. They average 3 first downs per game just on flags. 

The second best bet. Anytime touchdown scorer... Kelce -145 

 

Having that been said. I think you have to go with your gut. The titans have not lost a game by more then 13 all season. If you are getting a 10/13 point teaser, then you almost have to go Tenn +20 and Over.

 

 

 

 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2009
Posts: 5179
Posted: #34

Tennessee 27

Kansas City 20

 

 

an_popcorn

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2012
Posts: 2610
Posted: #35

Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

Quote Originally Posted by Rowdie22:

So do you also like the under Smack?  1st half under 25?
I'm hesitant to play the under in this game for the full game but might consider the UNDER 1H at 25 for a play...The scenario being the tough weather conditions keeping the score down and it's usually the 2H before Henry starts to wear down the defenses for long runs and the business decisions start to kick in for those defensive backs...No official play though...

Tenn has only had one game where the total didn't break 20, and two games were it didn't break 30. Every game the chiefs played was over 20 and they had two games that didn't break 30 and that was because the other teams CHI and DEN have horrible offenses.

 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2004
Posts: 14064
Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by arrgy:

Your best bet in the AFC game if you think it will be close...

Team with the most punts: Titans -150

Tenn, for as great an offense as it has, is 4th in the league in punts per game, averaging 5 and that goes up almost a full punt on the road. Last week they had 6.

KC,  on the other hand is at the opposite end, they average 3 per game. One of the main reasons why is because KC is #1 in the league in penalty first downs per game. They average 3 first downs per game just on flags. 

The second best bet. Anytime touchdown scorer... Kelce -145 

 

Having that been said. I think you have to go with your gut. The titans have not lost a game by more then 13 all season. If you are getting a 10/13 point teaser, then you almost have to go Tenn +20 and Over.

 

 

 


There is a stat on 10 point teasers up higher in the thread where they have been hitting at nearly 95% in the playoffs for years...

Got to have a teaser on this game...

PM for the skinny on the down low
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2004
Posts: 14064
Posted: #37
7 point teaser locked in earlier today...

S.F. - .5

K.C./Tenn OVER 45.5...

13 units to win 10...

PM for the skinny on the down low
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2012
Posts: 2610
Posted: #38

I did 13 pt

Tenn +20.5  (going to 21 is useless on a push)/Over 38.5

San Fran +5.5 (again going to 6 is useless on a push)/Over 34

 

 

 

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2012
Posts: 2610
Posted: #39

I love it...as soon as the game started the live line dropped to -6.5

 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2010
Posts: 33044
Posted: #40

Quote Originally Posted by 415m:

Yes. Lang was on Tennessee last week
When you pull crap out of your ass just to hear yourself talk like he does   , facts do not matter. 

Histrionic personality disorder. It's sad
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2004
Posts: 14064
Posted: #41
Both spreads today are at 7 or higher...

Conference championship favorites of -7 or higher are 33-6 SU...

The upsets...

1990 Giants (+8) d. 49ers
1998 Falcons (+11) d. Vikings
1999 Titans (+7) d. Jaguars
2001 Patriots (+10) d. Steelers
2007 Giants (+7.5) d. Packers
2012 Ravens (+7.5) d. Patriots
PM for the skinny on the down low
 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2009
Posts: 16130
Posted: #42

OooooOo, drama with tension.. .reallyhappy

an_popcorn

"Schrödinger's bet." A bet that loses when you bet it but wins when you DON'T bet it...
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2004
Posts: 14064
Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by TheSquare:

OooooOo, drama with tension.. .reallyhappy

an_popcorn


It's just not a fair fight so I pretty much ignore him...I hate to be perceived as bullying a kid who rides the short yellow bus so I just let him do his r*t*rd thing and go on...

No tension at all...mainly pity...

PM for the skinny on the down low
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2004
Posts: 14064
Posted: #44
I absolutely love what I am seeing from the Titans...they are implementing the game plan to perfections...

Long, time eating drives...Henry working on pummeling the defense...softening them up for the 4th quarter...

This is all going according to plan...

PM for the skinny on the down low
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2018
Posts: 2223
Posted: #45

Took live bet -3.5 KC

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2018
Posts: 2223
Posted: #46

KC will get 30+ pts today. It's only how many will Titans score. Penalties attributed to eating up the clock. Won't happen 2H. God forbid KC grabs the lead. No more Henry.

new_laugh_cry

 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2019
Posts: 509
Posted: #47

Smack, I happen to be on the opposite side for this game, but your write ups and analysis are very much appreciated. I DO look forward to them each week. Much appreciated! Good luck tonight! Much respect....keep up the good work!

 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2004
Posts: 14064
Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by soccergal:

Smack, I happen to be on the opposite side for this game, but your write ups and analysis are very much appreciated. I DO look forward to them each week. Much appreciated! Good luck tonight! Much respect....keep up the good work!


Glad you benefit from them...Best of luck!...

PM for the skinny on the down low
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2004
Posts: 14064
Posted: #49
2H play...

Titans +4 at EVEN...opened at -3.5 and I waited ...

10 units...

Henry time is here, my friends...the 2H....

Get ready to RUMBLE....

PM for the skinny on the down low
 
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2010
Posts: 33044
Posted: #50

BOL Smack

Histrionic personality disorder. It's sad
All Forums | NFL Betting
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Sports Betting
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
618,670
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2024 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.