Posted:
#51
Quote Originally Posted by Michfan15:
I wouldn't be so sure of that brotha...looks like its going to be another public v sharps split on Car/Den. Public going to hammering the panthers. Obviously very tough to bet against Cam right now, but Denver has the experienced D to stop them. You can bet they'll be studying that Falcons game hard.
Will likely be taking the 4.5 and hope Denver can stay within the # or even pull off the upset for Peyton. Its really lining up to be the perfect ending to Manning's career. Especially after the embarrassment a couple years ago vs Seattle, there is no way Denver comes out flat in this one.
Eviscerate was a strong word. But IMO Carolina is clearly the superior team. Can't fault anyone for taking the 4.5 expecting a tight game. I may even go 75% ML on CAR as I've found SBs much more enjoyable when you win when the winner does. I've had favs who didn't cover in SBs and it stinks. This is the one game a year I'll just ML the fav and not mess with the points. I still like to enjoy the game.
DEN D great no doubt but Carolina is #2 in DVOA. Carolina has also scored 49, 31, 27, 24, and 37 points on the other Top 10 DVOA defenses this season. In those games they are averaging 22 first downs per game and 386 yards (20 more than they average vs the rest of the league). They've been great against the best the league has had to offer. That is the hallmark of a great team. Carolina is going to score points here no doubt about it.
Can Denver keep up? I just don't see it. Manning just doesn't look good at all. I see no evidence he's going to be able to move the ball on the #2 D. I mentioned earlier how losing those CBs really hurt as a reason I liked Zona. I thought a good QB who could throw down the field would expose that weakness. It didn't happen and I don't believe Manning is the guy to do it. He's completed 56% and 53% for 5.5 YPA and 6.0 YPA in the playoffs. He's just missing throws. He's the same guy he's been all season. The only difference in the two playoff games is those misses aren't landing in the arms of the other team. We have the #1 and #2 Ds here but Carolina's offense is demonstrably better. Denver can't create big plays and can't sustain drives (#25 in 3rd down % and they've gone 9-32 in the playoffs).
You could argue Denver has the experience edge, but I think it's negligible. You're only as good as your leaders. Ron Rivera has been here before as a player. He's been in big games. Cam Newton is the most confident guy you'll see. The man has never shown me any evidence he's going to wilt. He sure didn't in big games in college. If Rivera and Cam are confident then the team will be too. In fact, Peyton Manning's career is littered with instances of him shitting the bed. I almost wonder if he'll put too much pressure on himself to win his last game. And Gary Kubiak???
I can defininetly understand people saying Carolina won't play as well as last week. They won't. But is it out of the question to see them force an old immobile QB into TO again? I don't think Denver plays as well as last week either. That was their offense. They are what they are. Bottom 8-10 in the league. The defense played out if it's mind though. I know their good but that was a performance they won't be able to duplicate. They lose homefield, and most importantly they play a waaaay better offensive line. The Pats line was a huge weakness all year (like Denver's QB) and it caught up to them. They are also going to need a spy on Cam.
I've watched 12 or 13 Carolina games from start to finish this season. They are just awesome. Big, physical monsters. Monsters in the front 7, a shutdown corner, and DE playing QB, a LB playing RB, and a DT playing fullback. They MASH teams. This is my favorite team since the 2013 Seahawks. They've been the best team all season and are just finally getting respect. These guys are going to go 18-1 and it will take all that for people to finally realize just how good they are.
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