Please don't do this. This is suicide. Coming from another die hard Niners fan do not put in the extra 7500 and buy out of the 2000 initial bet right now. This line will go down before game time tomorrow. I gaurentee you this line will close at -7.5 or -8. You will want to throw your computer out the window when you see this spread drop and will put more money down at the lower number. Either way this is a terrible thing to do, if the Niners show up for 1 more game this year it'll be this one. Also ask yourself this. Will Seattle be 100% mentally prepared for this game? Probably not as they have owned the Niners lately. San Fran will cover this number and you will hate yourself for betting this game tomorrow night. Just buy out of this bet now and look for other opportunities. Don't say you were not warned.
0
Please don't do this. This is suicide. Coming from another die hard Niners fan do not put in the extra 7500 and buy out of the 2000 initial bet right now. This line will go down before game time tomorrow. I gaurentee you this line will close at -7.5 or -8. You will want to throw your computer out the window when you see this spread drop and will put more money down at the lower number. Either way this is a terrible thing to do, if the Niners show up for 1 more game this year it'll be this one. Also ask yourself this. Will Seattle be 100% mentally prepared for this game? Probably not as they have owned the Niners lately. San Fran will cover this number and you will hate yourself for betting this game tomorrow night. Just buy out of this bet now and look for other opportunities. Don't say you were not warned.
Careful. Only takes Seattle running backs fumbling the ball once or twice. Special teams TD or Wilson Int or something to cover. Plus your are going against historical records of DD divisional dogs making a profit.
0
Careful. Only takes Seattle running backs fumbling the ball once or twice. Special teams TD or Wilson Int or something to cover. Plus your are going against historical records of DD divisional dogs making a profit.
Ok...first I want to say I understand exactly where you are as you sit here Saturday night thinking about this bet...I have been in that exact position several times. Analyzed every part of the bet and felt that it was a very high probability of success and worthy of a huge bet...largest bet of my gambling career...an investment, if you will.
The problem with this scenario is that it ignores money management...which is the first and foremost rule and axiom of betting to win in the long term. Ignoring this rule for a very attractive wager is the most common flaw in any gambler. Its like getting emotionally attached to a car that you are wanting to buy...the old saying "You had me at hello." applies here...you have lost the fight before it even starts if you allow this exception to the rule. It is the hardest part of being a successful gambler and why, literally, less than 5% of the people who gamble can successfully do it long term and even make a living off of it.
Understand me when I say that I know the allure of the 90% lock wager...the allure of the idea of "I can hit this one and get away with the big one-time score."...the allure of the really BIG score. But that is not, should not be your goal....if you can "take the 10k hit", even though it would hurt, then you have the wherewithal and the bankroll to be very successful should you decide to be disciplined and work your gambling career in the right way. Making this bet will create and reinforce bad tendencies...whether you win or lose...and that is the long term, big picture reason why you should not make it...even though you can.
Right now, your emotional state regarding this game is damaged. You have almost totally convinced yourself of the outcome and therefore you are not rational about the possibilities. It is admirable that you actually have sought out advice from friends and others on this site...however...your friends have turned into "YES" men so your only balance is coming from this site. There have been some excellent individuals giving you the other side of the story...if you can somehow see even ONE point that is valid, you need to stand pat with that 2k bet or use some hedging strategy as some have described above.
The fact that you are emotionally tied into this game should tell you that this is not the game to make the biggest wager of your career. Best of luck in your decision.
PM for the skinny on the down low
0
Ok...first I want to say I understand exactly where you are as you sit here Saturday night thinking about this bet...I have been in that exact position several times. Analyzed every part of the bet and felt that it was a very high probability of success and worthy of a huge bet...largest bet of my gambling career...an investment, if you will.
The problem with this scenario is that it ignores money management...which is the first and foremost rule and axiom of betting to win in the long term. Ignoring this rule for a very attractive wager is the most common flaw in any gambler. Its like getting emotionally attached to a car that you are wanting to buy...the old saying "You had me at hello." applies here...you have lost the fight before it even starts if you allow this exception to the rule. It is the hardest part of being a successful gambler and why, literally, less than 5% of the people who gamble can successfully do it long term and even make a living off of it.
Understand me when I say that I know the allure of the 90% lock wager...the allure of the idea of "I can hit this one and get away with the big one-time score."...the allure of the really BIG score. But that is not, should not be your goal....if you can "take the 10k hit", even though it would hurt, then you have the wherewithal and the bankroll to be very successful should you decide to be disciplined and work your gambling career in the right way. Making this bet will create and reinforce bad tendencies...whether you win or lose...and that is the long term, big picture reason why you should not make it...even though you can.
Right now, your emotional state regarding this game is damaged. You have almost totally convinced yourself of the outcome and therefore you are not rational about the possibilities. It is admirable that you actually have sought out advice from friends and others on this site...however...your friends have turned into "YES" men so your only balance is coming from this site. There have been some excellent individuals giving you the other side of the story...if you can somehow see even ONE point that is valid, you need to stand pat with that 2k bet or use some hedging strategy as some have described above.
The fact that you are emotionally tied into this game should tell you that this is not the game to make the biggest wager of your career. Best of luck in your decision.
You are a die hard Niners fan and you are willing to bet 10K on them to get blown out?.
The fact I'm a big niners fan and know my team well is the reason why I want too. They have looked lost this entire season and now travel to century link for a December clash with the champs who are getting hot at the right time. 2 teams heading in complete opposite directions. I had 1k on Seattle ml on thanksgiving. The niners have been over valued all year imo
0
Quote Originally Posted by TheGreatSean:
You are a die hard Niners fan and you are willing to bet 10K on them to get blown out?.
The fact I'm a big niners fan and know my team well is the reason why I want too. They have looked lost this entire season and now travel to century link for a December clash with the champs who are getting hot at the right time. 2 teams heading in complete opposite directions. I had 1k on Seattle ml on thanksgiving. The niners have been over valued all year imo
Ok...first I want to say I understand exactly where you are as you sit here Saturday night thinking about this bet...I have been in that exact position several times. Analyzed every part of the bet and felt that it was a very high probability of success and worthy of a huge bet...largest bet of my gambling career...an investment, if you will.The problem with this scenario is that it ignores money management...which is the first and foremost rule and axiom of betting to win in the long term. Ignoring this rule for a very attractive wager is the most common flaw in any gambler. Its like getting emotionally attached to a car that you are wanting to buy...the old saying "You had me at hello." applies here...you have lost the fight before it even starts if you allow this exception to the rule. It is the hardest part of being a successful gambler and why, literally, less than 5% of the people who gamble can successfully do it long term and even make a living off of it.Understand me when I say that I know the allure of the 90% lock wager...the allure of the idea of "I can hit this one and get away with the big one-time score."...the allure of the really BIG score. But that is not, should not be your goal....if you can "take the 10k hit", even though it would hurt, then you have the wherewithal and the bankroll to be very successful should you decide to be disciplined and work your gambling career in the right way. Making this bet will create and reinforce bad tendencies...whether you win or lose...and that is the long term, big picture reason why you should not make it...even though you can.Right now, your emotional state regarding this game is damaged. You have almost totally convinced yourself of the outcome and therefore you are not rational about the possibilities. It is admirable that you actually have sought out advice from friends and others on this site...however...your friends have turned into "YES" men so your only balance is coming from this site. There have been some excellent individuals giving you the other side of the story...if you can somehow see even ONE point that is valid, you need to stand pat with that 2k bet or use some hedging strategy as some have described above. The fact that you are emotionally tied into this game should tell you that this is not the game to make the biggest wager of your career. Best of luck in your decision.
This is exactly the type of input I was searching for. Much appreciated.
The stubborness in me is the one who wants to make it. The logically and financial minded in me is saying stay pat on the 2k.
I'm literally torn, I guess u can say I'll be sick if I lose the 10k bet and was wrong, but also be sick if I don't do the 10k and it plays out how I think it will which is to the tune of 31-6, 31-3 type of score.
Ahhhhhhhh the joys of the unknown
0
Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:
Ok...first I want to say I understand exactly where you are as you sit here Saturday night thinking about this bet...I have been in that exact position several times. Analyzed every part of the bet and felt that it was a very high probability of success and worthy of a huge bet...largest bet of my gambling career...an investment, if you will.The problem with this scenario is that it ignores money management...which is the first and foremost rule and axiom of betting to win in the long term. Ignoring this rule for a very attractive wager is the most common flaw in any gambler. Its like getting emotionally attached to a car that you are wanting to buy...the old saying "You had me at hello." applies here...you have lost the fight before it even starts if you allow this exception to the rule. It is the hardest part of being a successful gambler and why, literally, less than 5% of the people who gamble can successfully do it long term and even make a living off of it.Understand me when I say that I know the allure of the 90% lock wager...the allure of the idea of "I can hit this one and get away with the big one-time score."...the allure of the really BIG score. But that is not, should not be your goal....if you can "take the 10k hit", even though it would hurt, then you have the wherewithal and the bankroll to be very successful should you decide to be disciplined and work your gambling career in the right way. Making this bet will create and reinforce bad tendencies...whether you win or lose...and that is the long term, big picture reason why you should not make it...even though you can.Right now, your emotional state regarding this game is damaged. You have almost totally convinced yourself of the outcome and therefore you are not rational about the possibilities. It is admirable that you actually have sought out advice from friends and others on this site...however...your friends have turned into "YES" men so your only balance is coming from this site. There have been some excellent individuals giving you the other side of the story...if you can somehow see even ONE point that is valid, you need to stand pat with that 2k bet or use some hedging strategy as some have described above. The fact that you are emotionally tied into this game should tell you that this is not the game to make the biggest wager of your career. Best of luck in your decision.
This is exactly the type of input I was searching for. Much appreciated.
The stubborness in me is the one who wants to make it. The logically and financial minded in me is saying stay pat on the 2k.
I'm literally torn, I guess u can say I'll be sick if I lose the 10k bet and was wrong, but also be sick if I don't do the 10k and it plays out how I think it will which is to the tune of 31-6, 31-3 type of score.
So let me start this off by saying I normally bet 100-300 a game and on rare occurrences I've bet 500-1,000 on a game. This biggest bet of my life was 3,000.
I am a die hard 49ers fan and I feel like I know my team inside n out. This year has been frustrating for me and it pains me to say it but I've made money fading the 49ers lately, especially on thanksgiving. Which leads me to why I am starting this thread. I've been reading everything u could possibly imagine all week in regards to this Sunday's game with Seahawks. I can honestly say there is 0% of me that thinks the 49ers cover the 9.5 spread. I currently have $2,000 on Seattle -9.5 already but I am contemplating adding $7,500 more. This would be hands down the biggest bet of my life by a long shot. I've been talking to a bunch of friends all week who all think this will play out the same way I do. Gonna have a bunch of friends come over to watch the game with me.
So here is where I'm at... I'm reaching out to the covers forum to see if anybody on here has anything they feel like I am missing. Can someone talk me about of making this the bet of my life? Besides pride for the 49ers...
Thanks for your feedback
sJsharks99
No matter how strong a play looks like to you, just don't over bet on a game. Do flat betting, you're more likely successful in the long run.
GL!
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Quote Originally Posted by SJSharks99:
So let me start this off by saying I normally bet 100-300 a game and on rare occurrences I've bet 500-1,000 on a game. This biggest bet of my life was 3,000.
I am a die hard 49ers fan and I feel like I know my team inside n out. This year has been frustrating for me and it pains me to say it but I've made money fading the 49ers lately, especially on thanksgiving. Which leads me to why I am starting this thread. I've been reading everything u could possibly imagine all week in regards to this Sunday's game with Seahawks. I can honestly say there is 0% of me that thinks the 49ers cover the 9.5 spread. I currently have $2,000 on Seattle -9.5 already but I am contemplating adding $7,500 more. This would be hands down the biggest bet of my life by a long shot. I've been talking to a bunch of friends all week who all think this will play out the same way I do. Gonna have a bunch of friends come over to watch the game with me.
So here is where I'm at... I'm reaching out to the covers forum to see if anybody on here has anything they feel like I am missing. Can someone talk me about of making this the bet of my life? Besides pride for the 49ers...
Thanks for your feedback
sJsharks99
No matter how strong a play looks like to you, just don't over bet on a game. Do flat betting, you're more likely successful in the long run.
I like Seattle to cover but I think Denver is a safer play. There is some serious hatred between these two teams and if there was ever a game that the 49ers will give max effort in then it's this one. Two weeks ago this line would be Seattle -5 or 6. This line could be -14 and would still get Seattle action. Seattle is the better team but these are pro athletes and they have pride. Plus it's a double revenge angle as well.
Just playing Devil's advocate. I bet 10k on Seattle in Vegas on the SB and that was my biggest bet if my life. At least of you do it you know you will be backing the best team in the league in a place where they rarely ever lose. Definitely a favorable situation.
Good Luck Brother!
0
I like Seattle to cover but I think Denver is a safer play. There is some serious hatred between these two teams and if there was ever a game that the 49ers will give max effort in then it's this one. Two weeks ago this line would be Seattle -5 or 6. This line could be -14 and would still get Seattle action. Seattle is the better team but these are pro athletes and they have pride. Plus it's a double revenge angle as well.
Just playing Devil's advocate. I bet 10k on Seattle in Vegas on the SB and that was my biggest bet if my life. At least of you do it you know you will be backing the best team in the league in a place where they rarely ever lose. Definitely a favorable situation.
Dont do it. Im from New York and any good capper around here has a saying, "If you dont like the dog in a divisional rivalry, dont play the game." I have been working the capping thing on and off for a few years. I have seen ALOT of divisional games where the home team wins but does not cover the points. I know I have also seen games thrown from time to time, even though the purests amongst us will swear that never happens. The only time you make a bet that big is when you dont give a garbage if you lose the money. Even that being said, you want to win and its to many points. I dont care how strong you think that play is, I would not make it. Peace.
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Dont do it. Im from New York and any good capper around here has a saying, "If you dont like the dog in a divisional rivalry, dont play the game." I have been working the capping thing on and off for a few years. I have seen ALOT of divisional games where the home team wins but does not cover the points. I know I have also seen games thrown from time to time, even though the purests amongst us will swear that never happens. The only time you make a bet that big is when you dont give a garbage if you lose the money. Even that being said, you want to win and its to many points. I dont care how strong you think that play is, I would not make it. Peace.
Here's Matt Fargo's points about the situation where the Niners are, in terms of ATS, to wit:
"San
Francisco is 9-0 ATS in its last nine games after having lost two of
its last three games.
And 19-5 ATS in its last 24 games coming off a loss
as a road favorite.
Additionally, we play on underdogs or pickems with a
winning percentage between .501 and .600 coming off a loss as a road
favorite, in the second half of the season. This situation is 25-6 ATS
(80.6 percent) since 1983.
Play (329) San Francisco 49ers"
And you are willing to risk $10,000 against those kinds of odds?
I'd suggest to do a gut check with yourself and try to feel what it's like
to lose $10,000.
If you have $10,000 cash on hand, hold that cash in your hands, feel it, smell it. Think about losing that kind of money.
Yea, you would be pissed to pass up an opp to make that kind of money, too, if the 'Hawks cover, too.
But, historically, as shown by Matt Fargo's points, are against your wishes to make an extra $7K on this additional DD juice bet.
Think about how many bets that you needed to win to make that kind of bank
... and it can be lost on an ugly backdoor cover with a funny bounce of a
football, ya know.
0
Here's Matt Fargo's points about the situation where the Niners are, in terms of ATS, to wit:
"San
Francisco is 9-0 ATS in its last nine games after having lost two of
its last three games.
And 19-5 ATS in its last 24 games coming off a loss
as a road favorite.
Additionally, we play on underdogs or pickems with a
winning percentage between .501 and .600 coming off a loss as a road
favorite, in the second half of the season. This situation is 25-6 ATS
(80.6 percent) since 1983.
Play (329) San Francisco 49ers"
And you are willing to risk $10,000 against those kinds of odds?
I'd suggest to do a gut check with yourself and try to feel what it's like
to lose $10,000.
If you have $10,000 cash on hand, hold that cash in your hands, feel it, smell it. Think about losing that kind of money.
Yea, you would be pissed to pass up an opp to make that kind of money, too, if the 'Hawks cover, too.
But, historically, as shown by Matt Fargo's points, are against your wishes to make an extra $7K on this additional DD juice bet.
Think about how many bets that you needed to win to make that kind of bank
... and it can be lost on an ugly backdoor cover with a funny bounce of a
football, ya know.
Just stick with the 2k as others have said, these teams hate each other, the niners might get blown off the field but a divisional game vs. two teams that despise each other is not the spot i would pick to make a 10k bet. Just my two cents. The seahwaks offense isn't a high powered machine by any means, and although im almost certain they will win this game i don't want to lay 10 points on a team that rarely if ever scores 30.
0
Just stick with the 2k as others have said, these teams hate each other, the niners might get blown off the field but a divisional game vs. two teams that despise each other is not the spot i would pick to make a 10k bet. Just my two cents. The seahwaks offense isn't a high powered machine by any means, and although im almost certain they will win this game i don't want to lay 10 points on a team that rarely if ever scores 30.
I agree I will not have more than 4k on this game but I think the 49ers are a disaster right now, as a Giants fan I never bet against them so i don't understand how you could be a die hard....... you clearly are betting way to much on a team you follow and like... i wouldn't put anymore on it if I were you;......
0
I agree I will not have more than 4k on this game but I think the 49ers are a disaster right now, as a Giants fan I never bet against them so i don't understand how you could be a die hard....... you clearly are betting way to much on a team you follow and like... i wouldn't put anymore on it if I were you;......
Boss, I won 14/17 of my college basketball plays today, I wish I had the stones to play 300 a game. It would certainly be a Merry Xmas for me. Take your time, play in your comfort zone. Dont make a bet based on forcing the action, very few plays are locks, unless of course you have real inside information then please share! I do like how you do your homework, I think buying picks from touts is a waste of money.
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Boss, I won 14/17 of my college basketball plays today, I wish I had the stones to play 300 a game. It would certainly be a Merry Xmas for me. Take your time, play in your comfort zone. Dont make a bet based on forcing the action, very few plays are locks, unless of course you have real inside information then please share! I do like how you do your homework, I think buying picks from touts is a waste of money.
This is no different than the homer fan who is delusional, and always bets on his team when he should not and loses.
You're upset as a fan about what's going on with the Niners. It's very common for fans to get angry at their team, and think they're worse than they are in reality. Just like when things are going good, you'll think they're great.
Bears fans are like this right now too, here in Chicago. People think this team is never going to be good again until the year 2050 or something. I swear.
You have to be VERY careful about betting your team. Most people take his into consideration, and avoid betting ON their team. You also have to be VERY, and possibly even MORE careful before betting against them.
Those homer emotions work both ways.
0
Bro, don't do it.
This is no different than the homer fan who is delusional, and always bets on his team when he should not and loses.
You're upset as a fan about what's going on with the Niners. It's very common for fans to get angry at their team, and think they're worse than they are in reality. Just like when things are going good, you'll think they're great.
Bears fans are like this right now too, here in Chicago. People think this team is never going to be good again until the year 2050 or something. I swear.
You have to be VERY careful about betting your team. Most people take his into consideration, and avoid betting ON their team. You also have to be VERY, and possibly even MORE careful before betting against them.
I agree I will not have more than 4k on this game but I think the 49ers are a disaster right now, as a Giants fan I never bet against them so i don't understand how you could be a die hard....... you clearly are betting way to much on a team you follow and like... i wouldn't put anymore on it if I were you;......
I sports bet to make money, if I feel like I can on a certain game then have to put my fandom aside. It's definitelt a rare thing. The seattle bet on thanksgiving was the first time in a long time I faded the niners. Just seem them free falling this year.
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Quote Originally Posted by CagedWeakSauce:
I agree I will not have more than 4k on this game but I think the 49ers are a disaster right now, as a Giants fan I never bet against them so i don't understand how you could be a die hard....... you clearly are betting way to much on a team you follow and like... i wouldn't put anymore on it if I were you;......
I sports bet to make money, if I feel like I can on a certain game then have to put my fandom aside. It's definitelt a rare thing. The seattle bet on thanksgiving was the first time in a long time I faded the niners. Just seem them free falling this year.
When no one will dare touch San Fran after a loss to Oakland and an embarrassment on thanksgiving by the hawks. But I bet there are more people willing to take the Seahawks by huge margins. Which is why the spread is so large. Knowing the public will be all over the hawks.
This my friend is called a blood bath. I know of a few others I will be making large plays on. Good luck with your choice. I will be on San Fran.
0
Dal ----> sea ----> sf -----> dal
Now it goes in reverse.
Sf----->sea
When no one will dare touch San Fran after a loss to Oakland and an embarrassment on thanksgiving by the hawks. But I bet there are more people willing to take the Seahawks by huge margins. Which is why the spread is so large. Knowing the public will be all over the hawks.
This my friend is called a blood bath. I know of a few others I will be making large plays on. Good luck with your choice. I will be on San Fran.
i can see the 'hawks winning 21-3 but betting way out of your comfort zone is a terrible idea, the ball can bounce funny in this game, 10 points in the NFL is still a lot of points.
More importantly, win or lose if you put down 10 large, it would change your mentality for good as a bettor, any money management you had which is so key in this game would have been compromised and you would have set yourself a potentially bad precedent.
GL in whatever you do.
0
i can see the 'hawks winning 21-3 but betting way out of your comfort zone is a terrible idea, the ball can bounce funny in this game, 10 points in the NFL is still a lot of points.
More importantly, win or lose if you put down 10 large, it would change your mentality for good as a bettor, any money management you had which is so key in this game would have been compromised and you would have set yourself a potentially bad precedent.
Go with it,both teams goin in opposite directions.Has moved a point Seahawks way and with Harbaugh's mind on Michigan these days can't see this one close.
0
Go with it,both teams goin in opposite directions.Has moved a point Seahawks way and with Harbaugh's mind on Michigan these days can't see this one close.
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I do like how you do your homework, I think buying picks from touts is a waste of money.
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