Vanzack, with all the live-betting options, do you ever consider hitting the "kill switch" on your bets, if you do not like your bet any more? For example, when San Diego blew a big lead and was only up 30-20 after 3 quarters, why not bet on Jax, and even have a decent middle as well? However, I am NO FAN of hedging or leveraging, if I LIKE the way my bet is going.
I live bet all the time.
Heres the thing about live betting that everyone misses....
A live bet should be made based on a perceived edge at that moment in time. EVERY BET YOU MADE BEFORE IT DOESNT MATTER - HAS NO EFFECT ON YOUR LIVE BET - AND YOU SHOULD BEHAVE AS IF YOU HAVE NO PREVIOUS BETS WHATSOEVER.
So if you "bail out" of a previous bet by making a live bet - or "hedge out" - or whatever you want to call it - THAT IS A MISTAKE. Every moment of live betting is a decision based on that moment in time, not any of the previous moments or wagers.
This is impossible for most to grasp, impossible for most to execute, and I know I will get slammed for saying it. The reason books make money on this concept is because you ALREADY HAVE A BIAS IF YOU HAVE A PREVIOUS WAGER ON THE SAME EVENT. The books know this. So they offer you less for your previous wager than it is worth to cash out. They make price spreads that are unbeatable.
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3
Quote Originally Posted by wizardofroz:
Vanzack, with all the live-betting options, do you ever consider hitting the "kill switch" on your bets, if you do not like your bet any more? For example, when San Diego blew a big lead and was only up 30-20 after 3 quarters, why not bet on Jax, and even have a decent middle as well? However, I am NO FAN of hedging or leveraging, if I LIKE the way my bet is going.
I live bet all the time.
Heres the thing about live betting that everyone misses....
A live bet should be made based on a perceived edge at that moment in time. EVERY BET YOU MADE BEFORE IT DOESNT MATTER - HAS NO EFFECT ON YOUR LIVE BET - AND YOU SHOULD BEHAVE AS IF YOU HAVE NO PREVIOUS BETS WHATSOEVER.
So if you "bail out" of a previous bet by making a live bet - or "hedge out" - or whatever you want to call it - THAT IS A MISTAKE. Every moment of live betting is a decision based on that moment in time, not any of the previous moments or wagers.
This is impossible for most to grasp, impossible for most to execute, and I know I will get slammed for saying it. The reason books make money on this concept is because you ALREADY HAVE A BIAS IF YOU HAVE A PREVIOUS WAGER ON THE SAME EVENT. The books know this. So they offer you less for your previous wager than it is worth to cash out. They make price spreads that are unbeatable.
I drive a sports car just to prove I'm a real big baller 'cause I made a million dollars And I spend it on girls and shoes
But you don't wanna be high like me Never really knowing why like me You don't ever wanna step off that roller coaster and be all alone You don't wanna ride the bus like this Never knowing who to trust like this You don't wanna be stuck up on that stage singing Stuck up on that stage singing All I know are sad songs, sad songs
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0
Quote Originally Posted by SPark1:
What do/did you sell for a living?
I drive a sports car just to prove I'm a real big baller 'cause I made a million dollars And I spend it on girls and shoes
But you don't wanna be high like me Never really knowing why like me You don't ever wanna step off that roller coaster and be all alone You don't wanna ride the bus like this Never knowing who to trust like this You don't wanna be stuck up on that stage singing Stuck up on that stage singing All I know are sad songs, sad songs
Vanzack, thanks for the reply, but I strongly disagree with your thought process on this one. So basically you are saying to ride your initial wager out, regardless how shaky it is looking? And I am surprised you live-bet at all, as it goes it against everything you preached about reduced juice.
Well, there is really nothing to disagree about. Each bet you make on a sporting event is an individual discreet bet - just like in craps. Actually - craps is a great example....
Lots of craps "systems" (no such thing) tell you to make subsequent wagers to your original wager in order to somehow hedge or make it better. They dont. You are making NEW and INDEPENDENT wagers that do not increase your EV.
I am not saying "ride your initial wager out, no matter how shaky it is". That is totally mischaracterizing what I said. I said that any subsequent to the original bet should be made based on the value in the moment of your wager. If you calculate the line should be -5, and the line is -3, you should bet it no matter your initial bet.
IT IS ONLY IN YOUR HEAD THAT YOU CONNECT THE WAGERS ON THE SAME GAME. But in reality, they are not connected. So you need to think about any wager on its own merit.
Live betting is not against everything I preach. I preach getting the lowest juice you can so you increase the value (or EV) of your wager. Why would I not live bet? I have no idea what you are saying.
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0
Quote Originally Posted by wizardofroz:
Vanzack, thanks for the reply, but I strongly disagree with your thought process on this one. So basically you are saying to ride your initial wager out, regardless how shaky it is looking? And I am surprised you live-bet at all, as it goes it against everything you preached about reduced juice.
Well, there is really nothing to disagree about. Each bet you make on a sporting event is an individual discreet bet - just like in craps. Actually - craps is a great example....
Lots of craps "systems" (no such thing) tell you to make subsequent wagers to your original wager in order to somehow hedge or make it better. They dont. You are making NEW and INDEPENDENT wagers that do not increase your EV.
I am not saying "ride your initial wager out, no matter how shaky it is". That is totally mischaracterizing what I said. I said that any subsequent to the original bet should be made based on the value in the moment of your wager. If you calculate the line should be -5, and the line is -3, you should bet it no matter your initial bet.
IT IS ONLY IN YOUR HEAD THAT YOU CONNECT THE WAGERS ON THE SAME GAME. But in reality, they are not connected. So you need to think about any wager on its own merit.
Live betting is not against everything I preach. I preach getting the lowest juice you can so you increase the value (or EV) of your wager. Why would I not live bet? I have no idea what you are saying.
The juice has to be worth the squeeze....so if you think you are getting a better line than you should, not betting it because the juice is higher than standard doesn't make sense.....the value of the bet includes the juice it costs....
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The juice has to be worth the squeeze....so if you think you are getting a better line than you should, not betting it because the juice is higher than standard doesn't make sense.....the value of the bet includes the juice it costs....
The juice has to be worth the squeeze....so if you think you are getting a better line than you should, not betting it because the juice is higher than standard doesn't make sense.....the value of the bet includes the juice it costs....
Exactly. Getting a line I patiently wait for, I am still usually taxed 15 to 20 cents.
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Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:
The juice has to be worth the squeeze....so if you think you are getting a better line than you should, not betting it because the juice is higher than standard doesn't make sense.....the value of the bet includes the juice it costs....
Exactly. Getting a line I patiently wait for, I am still usually taxed 15 to 20 cents.
The juice has to be worth the squeeze....so if you think you are getting a better line than you should, not betting it because the juice is higher than standard doesn't make sense.....the value of the bet includes the juice it costs....
Wizard.... ^^^^^
To add to that.... It has to be a very quick evaluation. And that speed is what makes you money, or loses you money. It all comes down to speed of calculation with live betting. You often have 20 second, or 1 minute windows to make an evaluation of value, that has to beat a wider spread of juice than pre-game. It is not for the faint of heart - or those that are not prepared.
That is why I am so against "hedging" or "cashing out". You are making a second wager to your original wager, and most people are not prepared to make an evaluation of the proper price value of this second bet - and the books know it. So you throw the book an extra few bucks here, an extra few bucks there - and over time - you are getting slaughtered on your "guaranteed money" or "cashing out".
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
0
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:
The juice has to be worth the squeeze....so if you think you are getting a better line than you should, not betting it because the juice is higher than standard doesn't make sense.....the value of the bet includes the juice it costs....
Wizard.... ^^^^^
To add to that.... It has to be a very quick evaluation. And that speed is what makes you money, or loses you money. It all comes down to speed of calculation with live betting. You often have 20 second, or 1 minute windows to make an evaluation of value, that has to beat a wider spread of juice than pre-game. It is not for the faint of heart - or those that are not prepared.
That is why I am so against "hedging" or "cashing out". You are making a second wager to your original wager, and most people are not prepared to make an evaluation of the proper price value of this second bet - and the books know it. So you throw the book an extra few bucks here, an extra few bucks there - and over time - you are getting slaughtered on your "guaranteed money" or "cashing out".
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69: The juice has to be worth the squeeze....so if you think you are getting a better line than you should, not betting it because the juice is higher than standard doesn't make sense.....the value of the bet includes the juice it costs.... Exactly. Getting a line I patiently wait for, I am still usually taxed 15 to 20 cents.
You are not taxed 15 to 20 cents. That is maybe the spread from the midpoint of the line and price - but take the following example....
Live Line: Cowboys -7 -115 : Packers +7 -115
Because there is a 30 cent spread on that line - it will be harder for a bet to qualify as bettable. In other words, if instead of a 30 cent spread it was a 10 cent spread - anything that you project to be a bet on either side between -106 and -115 would be a bet - whereas in the 30 cent line I posted above - all of those wagers between -106 and -115 would not be a bet.
So having a wider juice spread means that you will have less opportunities to bet, and those bets will be more expensive. But it does not exclude live wagering as an opportunity - because any wager on the above example that you evaluate to be worth -116 or higher should be bet.
And this is done on every play, of every game. Evaluate true price - compare to available line and price - and bet accordingly - each their own bet regardless of what you have previously on the game. Your previous bets are gone - they were made with the information you had at that time - and now everything has changed to be a new situation. And you are betting on that situation right here - right now - not what you did pregame or even 2 plays ago.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
0
Quote Originally Posted by wizardofroz:
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69: The juice has to be worth the squeeze....so if you think you are getting a better line than you should, not betting it because the juice is higher than standard doesn't make sense.....the value of the bet includes the juice it costs.... Exactly. Getting a line I patiently wait for, I am still usually taxed 15 to 20 cents.
You are not taxed 15 to 20 cents. That is maybe the spread from the midpoint of the line and price - but take the following example....
Live Line: Cowboys -7 -115 : Packers +7 -115
Because there is a 30 cent spread on that line - it will be harder for a bet to qualify as bettable. In other words, if instead of a 30 cent spread it was a 10 cent spread - anything that you project to be a bet on either side between -106 and -115 would be a bet - whereas in the 30 cent line I posted above - all of those wagers between -106 and -115 would not be a bet.
So having a wider juice spread means that you will have less opportunities to bet, and those bets will be more expensive. But it does not exclude live wagering as an opportunity - because any wager on the above example that you evaluate to be worth -116 or higher should be bet.
And this is done on every play, of every game. Evaluate true price - compare to available line and price - and bet accordingly - each their own bet regardless of what you have previously on the game. Your previous bets are gone - they were made with the information you had at that time - and now everything has changed to be a new situation. And you are betting on that situation right here - right now - not what you did pregame or even 2 plays ago.
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