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Cowherd brought up a good point...

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Posted: #1
If the Patriots and Eagles did not have to play the last 2 games that got them to the Super Bowl, what would the line on the game between them be?

He thought Patriots about -8.5...R.J. Bell, his podcast guest, said it would be a solid Patriots -10.

Just think about that for a few minutes...

The incredible value created by Nick Foles destroying the Vikings and looking like Joe Montana....and ...The Patriots squeaking out a game they should have lost to Jacksonville...

Understand what value is...you just don't get this type of value in a Super Bowl...

Patriots are SU winners in over 70% of their games in the last 15 years....over 60% winner ATS....more value...

Nick Foles probably played a game vs the Vikings that was a 1% probability of occurring...understand the VALUE of knowing that regression to the MEAN will occur much more often than not.  Nick Foles is a journeyman backup in the NFL...that is his "mean'...his average performance....there is a HUGE likelihood that he will revert to something like that level of performance in this game rather than reappear as Joe Montana again.

And the last point of VALUE....the public perception and betting on this game has driven the line down...HARD....creating more VALUE on the favorite, one of the best QB's of all time going up against a journeyman backup...

This is not Nick Foles vs Case Keenum....this is Nick Foles VS THE GOAT...

UNDERSTAND VALUE AND BET ACCORDINGLY.



PM for the skinny on the down low
 
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Posted: #2

Remember Minnesota was missing their main defensive linebacker Sandejo. After he lefted the game Foles went off.

 
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Posted: #3
Quote Originally Posted by zebrakiller:

it's not just the quaterbacks it's team vs team .............. i said a million times already DEFENSE wins champiuonships

EAGLES rank 4th over all Patriots ranked at bottom 29th

NO FUGGING TEAM IN HISTORY OF SUPERBOWLS EVER WON WITH A DEFENSE RANKED THIS LOW>

Plus Patriots season sos was lowest ranked of all playoff teams

28th Eagles ranked at 17th

I seriously hope you are NOT disputing that the QB position is the most important position on the field.  If you don't understand that you and I will not be able to discuss this rationally.

Now, with such a HUGE disparity at the most important position on the field, it NEGATES a huge part of that defensive advantage that you have highlighted so proficiently.

As to how much, we will see in less than 24 hours.

But please tell me you understand that having the GOAT at QB in this game gives the Patriots a MASSIVE advantage...even if you think Philly can win, you MUST acknowledge that point.

PM for the skinny on the down low
 
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Posted: #4
Hey MEATHEAD look at those Defense rankings again! Ur right MEATHEAD! I f***ing can't sleep its so easy Go Eagles Go 
 
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Posted: #5

I think it's fair to break the season down into segments rather than just saying "The patriots rank #29 defensively."  They were awful in September.... have to discount that some.  The Pats have allowed 1 TD of 20+ yards since October.  The defense has been playing a lot better as the season came to a close. Flipped a switch in the 2nd half against J-ville, and made plays when it mattered.  I think the Patriots are a little different in that they're in this situation on a near yearly basis.  Hard for them to play at a high level all year long when they're deep into the playoffs all the time.  NE finished the season #8 in red zone TD% defensively, Philly was #11. If Foles and the offense are settling for 3's they don't stand a chance against NE.  Philly is great against the run.... but who really cares when you have a middle of the road pass D and Tom Brady is on the other side.  Pressure on Brady is a must, and again I'll give the edge to Belichek and the Pats coaching staff to figure something out against the Philly pass rush as they've had 2 weeks to prepare and are phenomenal at in-game/HT adjustments.  

Brady's stats in domes:

67.4% completion percentage, 8.2 yards per attempt, 6.4% TD, 0.5% INT, 112.2 rating.

Can totally understand people liking the Eagles here after crushing Minnesota, but as people have already pointed out there is no better spot to take the Pats.  Seems like everyone and their brother is on Philly. Tom Brady vs Nick Foles for the trophy..... 4 point spread and people are really going to put their faith/cash in Foles?  If you're banking on that nasty Philly defense, I'm sure they'll be great against the run but when Brady throws 45 times for 350+ it won't really matter.  

Hoping for a good game, but if the Eagles kick FG's early & don't knock Brady on his a** from the start they might get blown out.  Very over-hyped with Foles, let's see if he can prove me wrong.  NE 31 Philly 20.

 
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Posted: #6

Quote Originally Posted by zebrakiller:

it's not just the quaterbacks it's team vs team .............. i said a million times already DEFENSE wins champiuonships EAGLES rank 4th over all Patriots ranked at bottom 29thNO FUGGING TEAM IN HISTORY OF SUPERBOWLS EVER WON WITH A DEFENSE RANKED THIS LOW>Plus Patriots season sos was lowest ranked of all playoff teams 28th Eagles ranked at 17th

 

If this is the only stat you go by to judge defenses I feel bad for you. If you take away the Dolphins games, they've allowed less than two touchdowns per game since the loss to the Panthers.

 

They've been a bend but don't break defense for a decade now. 

 
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Posted: #7

pats win. The king has spoken..

 
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Posted: #8

zebrakiller= U miss the most important stat in football NE is #1 in DEF yards per point 19.76 PHIL is #7 16.62 and on OFF NE #5 13.77 PHI #3 12.81

NE #1 differentail 6 phi 3.8 makes NE the smartest team in football

SB differential NE 15.41 PHI 16.37 THIS STAT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO ME

GL2ALL

 

 
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Posted: #9
screw the rankings and stats and trends  with 2 minutes left who do you want if you take NE and philly wins you'll say why didn't I go with rankings if you take philly and NE wins you'll say hoe did I bet against NE  GL to all enjoy
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by PatsRoll5:

Hey MEATHEAD look at those Defense rankings again! Ur right MEATHEAD! I f***ing can't sleep its so easy Go Eagles Go 

A PATSROLL( 5 ) Imposter.......hilarious.
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by zebrakiller:

it's not just the quaterbacks it's team vs team .............. i said a million times already DEFENSE wins champiuonships

EAGLES rank 4th over all Patriots ranked at bottom 29th

NO FUGGING TEAM IN HISTORY OF SUPERBOWLS EVER WON WITH A DEFENSE RANKED THIS LOW>

Plus Patriots season sos was lowest ranked of all playoff teams

28th Eagles ranked at 17th


4.7 ypc on defense. Thats one of the worst run defenses in the league. Enter Legarrette Blount and Jay Ajayi
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by pointspreadking:

pats win. The king has spoken..


I think I know the real King
Good Luck On The Action
 
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Posted: #13
Yards don't win or lose games.  Points do!  Since Week 4, the Patriots went from the worst scoring defense in the NFL to the best. During the final 12 games of the regular season, the Patriots defense allowed a league-low 14 points per contest. Despite their awful start, the team finished fifth in the league in points allowed over the entire season, averaging only 18.5 points per game.
 
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Posted: #14

Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

If the Patriots and Eagles did not have to play the last 2 games that got them to the Super Bowl, what would the line on the game between them be?He thought Patriots about -8.5...R.J. Bell, his podcast guest, said it would be a solid Patriots -10.Just think about that for a few minutes...The incredible value created by Nick Foles destroying the Vikings and looking like Joe Montana....and ...The Patriots squeaking out a game they should have lost to Jacksonville...Understand what value is...you just don't get this type of value in a Super Bowl...Patriots are SU winners in over 70% of their games in the last 15 years....over 60% winner ATS....more value...Nick Foles probably played a game vs the Vikings that was a 1% probability of occurring...understand the VALUE of knowing that regression to the MEAN will occur much more often than not.  Nick Foles is a journeyman backup in the NFL...that is his "mean'...his average performance....there is a HUGE likelihood that he will revert to something like that level of performance in this game rather than reappear as Joe Montana again.And the last point of VALUE....the public perception and betting on this game has driven the line down...HARD....creating more VALUE on the favorite, one of the best QB's of all time going up against a journeyman backup...This is not Nick Foles vs Case Keenum....this is Nick Foles VS THE GOAT...UNDERSTAND VALUE AND BET ACCORDINGLY.
a Nick foles does not play against Tom Brady. Nick plays against the 28th defense in the NFL. Eagles win.

 
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Posted: #15
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

If the Patriots and Eagles did not have to play the last 2 games that got them to the Super Bowl, what would the line on the game between them be?

He thought Patriots about -8.5...R.J. Bell, his podcast guest, said it would be a solid Patriots -10.

Just think about that for a few minutes...

The incredible value created by Nick Foles destroying the Vikings and looking like Joe Montana....and ...The Patriots squeaking out a game they should have lost to Jacksonville...

Understand what value is...you just don't get this type of value in a Super Bowl...

Patriots are SU winners in over 70% of their games in the last 15 years....over 60% winner ATS....more value...

Nick Foles probably played a game vs the Vikings that was a 1% probability of occurring...understand the VALUE of knowing that regression to the MEAN will occur much more often than not.  Nick Foles is a journeyman backup in the NFL...that is his "mean'...his average performance....there is a HUGE likelihood that he will revert to something like that level of performance in this game rather than reappear as Joe Montana again.

And the last point of VALUE....the public perception and betting on this game has driven the line down...HARD....creating more VALUE on the favorite, one of the best QB's of all time going up against a journeyman backup...

This is not Nick Foles vs Case Keenum....this is Nick Foles VS THE GOAT...

UNDERSTAND VALUE AND BET ACCORDINGLY.




Terrific post by the OP. Regardless of which side you're on, you can't dispute his logic or facts.


 
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Posted: #17
lol. and remember bortles vs the GOAT??? 

how did that work out? 

if refs weren't all over the pats ball$ack, bortles and co would walk out with a victory.. now you have the eagles matching up w the pats horrible D.. give me the eagles +!!!!!!!
 
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Posted: #18

Quote Originally Posted by DoctorSuccess:

QUOTE Originally Posted by smacksmiter: If the Patriots and Eagles did not have to play the last 2 games that got them to the Super Bowl, what would the line on the game between them be?He thought Patriots about -8.5...R.J. Bell, his podcast guest, said it would be a solid Patriots -10.Just think about that for a few minutes...The incredible value created by Nick Foles destroying the Vikings and looking like Joe Montana....and ...The Patriots squeaking out a game they should have lost to Jacksonville...Understand what value is...you just don't get this type of value in a Super Bowl...Patriots are SU winners in over 70% of their games in the last 15 years....over 60% winner ATS....more value...Nick Foles probably played a game vs the Vikings that was a 1% probability of occurring...understand the VALUE of knowing that regression to the MEAN will occur much more often than not.  Nick Foles is a journeyman backup in the NFL...that is his "mean'...his average performance....there is a HUGE likelihood that he will revert to something like that level of performance in this game rather than reappear as Joe Montana again.And the last point of VALUE....the public perception and betting on this game has driven the line down...HARD....creating more VALUE on the favorite, one of the best QB's of all time going up against a journeyman backup...This is not Nick Foles vs Case Keenum....this is Nick Foles VS THE GOAT...UNDERSTAND VALUE AND BET ACCORDINGLY. Terrific post by the OP. Regardless of which side you're on, you can't dispute his logic or facts.

 

an_cheers

 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by Wizerguy:



4.7 ypc on defense. Thats one of the worst run defenses in the league. Enter Legarrette Blount and Jay Ajayi

Just posted why this is an irrelevant stat for today
 
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Posted: #20

Quote Originally Posted by Jailbait7127:

lol. and remember bortles vs the GOAT??? how did that work out? if refs weren't all over the pats ball$ack, bortles and co would walk out with a victory.. now you have the eagles matching up w the pats horrible D.. give me the eagles +!!!!!!!

What makes you think refs won't be on their backs again? All signs point to yes. Refs will be biggest advantage. Not TB

 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by acer00:

Any idiot who quotes Cowturd needs his head examined.



 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by DoctorSuccess:


Terrific post by the OP. Regardless of which side you're on, you can't dispute his logic or facts.



Thank you for your kind and true words, my friend.

It continually amazes me that the human brain can look at so many things and construct outcomes that are so varied.  This game is yet again another illustration of that principle.

Best of...well, won't call it "luck"...Best of VALUE to all my fellow value backers!

PM for the skinny on the down low
 
 
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Posted: #23
That dummy Cowherd said he was never so sure about a SB winner prediction as this one Friday before the game. That the Pats were going to steam roll them and it wasn't even going to be close. 


I have no idea how or why pple like him or skip bayless have the following that they do or get paid the money they do. It's mind boggling
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