Dallas Cowboys Season Wins

What up fam!

I am here in Vegas playing some poker and after looking at the off-season, have decided to double down on my futures bet on the Packers (I know, I know). 

I loved their draft. I realize they’re weak at receiver and don’t have depth at some positions. However, I believe they have the #1 secondary and a top 3 defense. Their perceived weakness at edge rush is overblown and I feel that Rashan Gary, a pro bowl alternative, will make the Pro Bowl this year. Christian Watson will be productive and I really like GBs odds to make it to the SB.

Now, on to the matter at hand. How in the world is the Cowboys win total set at 10.5. This line is OFF. Why? Well, every team in their division got better. The Giants had a solid draft and picked up two top 10 picks, the Eagles upgraded with AJ brown and picked up monster rookie Jordan Davis on defense. The Commanders will get a healthy Chase Young back and boasted one of the leagues best defenses. Every team in their division improved, the Cowboys. What did the Cowboys do? They lost a lineman and their line is looking suspect. They took a highly penalized OT who they’re going to start at Guard, and Tyrone Smith has not been healthy. They lost Randy Gregory, and Micah Parsons, although a stud, I believe will regress. Looking at their schedule, I believe they’ll start the year off 0-2 and I see them losing to the Rams and Packers. That is 4 losses. At best, they’ll drop at least one game to each divisional opponent and that is best case scenario. I see them winning 9-10 games and find the 10.5 line to be a key number. This is coming from me, a big time Cowboys fan. I see tremendous value here. I hate that I’ll be rooting against my team but this is too much value to pass up! 

BOL brothers

@Ih8coldweather

A few things:

- Cowboys fans have flooded XM radio’s NFL channel about complaints about their off-season talent and cap casualties

- every team in the division did get better. Still, the only team that Dallas should face a tight challenge from is Philly, and the Commies may show up for 1 of the 2 games. Daniel Jones still sucks lol

- Dallas was still the highest scoring team in the league last year and brings back most of that (except Cooper). Zeke was playing with a busted knee last year, which is crazy. Can they replace Cooper’s production? Good question!

- Diggs is not a good cover corner, he gave up an ungodly amount of big plays last year. Word was out on him last year, this year will be worse

- Dak was healthy all last year. If he misses 2-5 games this year that would point to an under

With all that in mind, I lean under 10.5, I’m about 60% sure.

Zeke may have lost a step and he's probably heard an ear full and he very well may be chomping at the bit to bust some arse. 

It goes under and McCarthy gets booted and in comes Payton. America’s Team then goes on a run of 5 straight Superbowls. 

Diggs gambles way too much...Reason he had all those INT's early...teams caught on and just need to do an out and up and he will bite on it and get burned...

@davemsh

 Exactly! I remember hearing a stat midseason where he gave up by far the most 20 yard plays. He gambles, but when they call a play that anticipates that he can’t catch up.

So then to adjust he starts playing 10 yards off the WR to adjust, and they eat him alive underneath. It’s a whole cycle.

That’s why Philly threw on them 55-60 times last year, they knew the stats. Should be fun watching the Philly matchup this year, I’m taking the over for sure lol

@Ih8coldweather

 really like parsons and how he can defend from anywhere on the field. think he can elevate his game this year and help improve the overall defense of the cowboys. 

I think the Dallas Cowboys defensive line and linebackers for the most part are solid. Re-signing D-Law and getting Donte Fowler to fill the void left by the departure of Randy Gregory was a big move for Dallas. Parson's outperformed all expectations but I think teams realize that now and will game plan around him if he is rushing the QB. Nobody expected him to have the sack numbers that he that. I think he will get a lot more attention. 

The issue with Dallas this year will be the O-line which has been plagued with injuries and will have a new rookie starting at likely LG. That and the secondary. Will Dak elevate his play and how will Zeke Elliot look? Looking at their schedule, it is very hard for me as a Dallas homer to see them winning 11 games. I just don't see it. 

the combo of zeke and pollard looks to stay potent. leading the league in scoring again is still a possibility 

Thinking Dak gets injured and is misses some games.  Under 10.5 looks good.  Thanks for the heads up and bol in LV playing cards.

Not disagreeing.  But curious why you say that about Dak, in particular?  That is more or less already factored in based on a QB and their style and injury history.  I just do not know any serious capper of futures that 'plans' for an injury to base their bet on.  I have noticed this being done more than once on here. 

So, curious if that is normal or do you see something with Dak?

For example, I could see that with Allen or Burrow or even Murray and Carr.  Maybe with an older guy like Rodgers or Stafford or Wilson.  But Dak seems in line with what is 'expected' for his style and history.

Prescott -- chance of missing at least 2 quarters 11% -- projected 1.2 missed games

JB -- 65% -- 1.5

Carr -- 36% -- 1.7

JA -- 26% -- .2

KM -- 26% -- 1.2

PM -- 16% -- .9

JH -- 15% -- 1.4

AR -- 14% -- .7

MS -- 12% -- 1.7

RW -- 12% -- 1.1

MR -- 10% -- .6

KC -- 5% -- .2

All of those seem fairly reasonable to me.  Maybe Burrow is overblown at this point and as his career lengthens it will decrease.  So, maybe a play on their OVER if you felt he might NOT get injured, etc.

But Dallas UNDER based mainly on Dak 'to miss some games'?  Just asking if you have any other reasoning on him?

@Sidehatch

just to clarify, Dak got injured mid-year (remember the backup coming in and winning at Minnesota) and wasnt the same afterwards.  He's better now and slimmed down with a better diet.  Dallas lost Cooper and Wilson, but should have a healthy Gallup returning.  Schultz should improve again, but overall I think a net loss here on the passing game.

The OLine didnt improve much and could hurt the offense.

Unless Dallas gives the ball much more to Pollard, the running game will be mediocre.  Zeke is past his prime and way overpaid. 

Dallas' defense might be a bit better, but they will still be below average.

As another poster showed above, I dont think Jerry does much for this team and lets McCarthy flail into a mediocre season so he can bring in Payton. 
Dallas can get to the playoffs again with this team but wont go far yet again.  i cant bet the under season wins because 11-6 is fairly reasonable for them

but 10-7 or even sliding to a 9-8 record seems doable