**Detailed Write Up for Rams/Chiefs**

Statistically, both teams are similar.  PPG, Defensive PPG, Passing Offense, Rushing Defense, Turnover creation, and Field Goal % are almost identical for both teams, almost to the number.

 Isolated stats that favor the Rams:

 1.       .  You could make the argument that the number is flawed as KC is almost always ahead, but you can make the same argument for L.A.

 2.         Both teams feature elite runners, but Gurley is superior to Hunt statistically and with the eye test.

 3.       Both teams win by an average of 10-11 ppg.  L.A. has only blown out 2 teams, while KC only one).  Their overall PPG for and against are almost identical.

  While L.A. has a few statistical edges, this is about as even as it gets. 

 1.          Both teams have elite quarterbacks, incredible playmakers, and ridiculous offensive schemes.    Both teams do not have one of the best defensive players in NFL history.  If we are looking for angles to decide this game, Donald is one of them.  The guy is unblockable, and with the pressure he creates in the middle, it is bad news as the Chiefs are also weak at Left Tackle, as Fisher often needs help.  The Rams have not been great as a team in getting sacks, but Donald leads the NFL.  Major advantage for L.A.

 2.         In a game where the teams are evenly matched, it has to be considered.

 3.      Mahomes had a death in his family recently (his girlfriend’s step dad died unexpectedly at the stadium two weeks ago during a game).  Although he doesn’t appear to be human, he is, and could be distracted.  Also, he was just on the cover of SI, and the SI jinx is real (I’m just being funny on this point.  Maybe).

 4.     The Rams don’t have a great home field advantage, but the venue change obviously favors them more than KC.  Again, KC’s defense does not travel well at all.

5. KC has not been great as a team in creating pressure or getting sacks.  So far, most of their pressures are coming off the edge with Dee Ford and Chris Jones.  Goff is very adept at stepping up into the pocket and firing downfield to streaking receivers, and KC has a poor secondary. 

 : With very slight statistical advantages in a few key areas (rushing offense, passing defense) favoring the Rams, and the situational factor and venue change in their favor, the play for me has to be:

 Rams -3

KC Pass defense is 2 worst in the league, giving up an average of 289 ypg.  The Rams come in at 15, with 233 ypg. 

L.A. is 2 in the NFL is rushing offense, while KC is 13. 

Not sure why those didn't show up above.

2 points that didn't post correctly in original post:

1. Andy Reid has blown dozens of huge games with awful time management and decisions.  I

2. The KC defense gives up 30 PPG on the road.

Despite the fact that this is a short notice LA game I still think the fans will be majority rooting for the Chiefs.

That's possible Guru, when GB played there it was in favor of the Pack in terms of noise.

Over the total is a dandy. 

Some other differences:

KC is a good 3rd down stopping team for some reason.

KC is great the first quarter, the Rams are mediocre at best and allow a LOT of points the first quarter

A big stat that is often overlooked... KC has the most penalties per game, 2nd highest yardage per penalty per game, they also give opponents 3 free first downs on penalties per game. Rams 3rd fewest.

KC also scores about 3 points more per game AWAY

While KC has a worse defense AWAY it is skewed because they had NE and PITT on the road

The one stat that glares at me is the rushing stats. The Rams are the 2nd highest rushing team however they only do so in the 2nd half. They are the best team for time of possession in the 2nd half, but lousy in the first half. KC is one of the worst rushing defensive teams, they allow 5.1 yards per run.

To me this means I think the Rams will prepare to kill the clock and keep the ball away from the KC offense. It is the classic don't give Brady the ball and NE can't beat you. I don't know if this game is going to go over but I am not so sure it will be a shootout. If KC gets a quick touchdown I don't think the Rams will respond with a quick touchdown, they will run the ball kill the clock and score slowly. This game is all going to come down to KC rushing defense and limiting stupid penalties.