Solid thread, solid discussion....whats truly amazing is that there‘s only been legitimate back and forth discussion and it hasnt devolved into childish name calling...thanks guys for he firm numbers...always knew the jist, but never the actual figures.
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Solid thread, solid discussion....whats truly amazing is that there‘s only been legitimate back and forth discussion and it hasnt devolved into childish name calling...thanks guys for he firm numbers...always knew the jist, but never the actual figures.
Maybe I'm doing a lousy job explaining it, but see what I'm saying? My whole point is the house is not screwing you with house edge on a 3 team parlay; its the same or better than flat plays (assuming I try to press my luck).
I think maybe we are talking about different things here. Not once in this entire article did I ever mention that I was pressing any straight bets and parlaying that amount myself.
The article showed how to compute the House Edge for a -110 straight bet and how to compute it for roulette and a few different several parlay bets. It was comparing the Edge vs a single straight bet vs. that of different parlay bets. The single straight bet is not pressed.
And yes, if you don't bet on one of those Vegas style parlay cards, that have the payout predetermined and is often very low, you can get a much better return (lowering the House Edge) if the sportsbook is determining the odds of each leg at -110 (This is what I agree to in the other thread. And yes, the House Edge is indeed related to the payout, It has to be related in order to compute it.)
3 team parlay each leg at -110: Payout = +5.96. House Edge = 13.03% (3 team parlay paying +6.00 = House Edge of 12.5% as mentioned earlier.)
4 team parlay each leg at -110: Payout = +12.28. House Edge = 16.98%
5 team parlay each leg at -110: Payout = 24.36. House Edge = 20.75%
6 team parlay each leg at -110: Payout = 47.41. House Edge = 24.36%
The House Edge keeps climbing and climbing and climbing with every leg. They don't give you a break at all. By the time you get to 15 legs it's more than 50%. (25 white jelly beans and 75 black ones!)
When your parlay hits, no matter how many legs, you're getting a far, far lower return than what the true odds dictate. I'd love to see a book offer a 3-team parlay at something closer to 6.64 return. This would mean this entire parlay would have a House Edge of just 4.5%.. the same as a straight bet.
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Quote Originally Posted by Baby_BA:
Maybe I'm doing a lousy job explaining it, but see what I'm saying? My whole point is the house is not screwing you with house edge on a 3 team parlay; its the same or better than flat plays (assuming I try to press my luck).
I think maybe we are talking about different things here. Not once in this entire article did I ever mention that I was pressing any straight bets and parlaying that amount myself.
The article showed how to compute the House Edge for a -110 straight bet and how to compute it for roulette and a few different several parlay bets. It was comparing the Edge vs a single straight bet vs. that of different parlay bets. The single straight bet is not pressed.
And yes, if you don't bet on one of those Vegas style parlay cards, that have the payout predetermined and is often very low, you can get a much better return (lowering the House Edge) if the sportsbook is determining the odds of each leg at -110 (This is what I agree to in the other thread. And yes, the House Edge is indeed related to the payout, It has to be related in order to compute it.)
3 team parlay each leg at -110: Payout = +5.96. House Edge = 13.03% (3 team parlay paying +6.00 = House Edge of 12.5% as mentioned earlier.)
4 team parlay each leg at -110: Payout = +12.28. House Edge = 16.98%
5 team parlay each leg at -110: Payout = 24.36. House Edge = 20.75%
6 team parlay each leg at -110: Payout = 47.41. House Edge = 24.36%
The House Edge keeps climbing and climbing and climbing with every leg. They don't give you a break at all. By the time you get to 15 legs it's more than 50%. (25 white jelly beans and 75 black ones!)
When your parlay hits, no matter how many legs, you're getting a far, far lower return than what the true odds dictate. I'd love to see a book offer a 3-team parlay at something closer to 6.64 return. This would mean this entire parlay would have a House Edge of just 4.5%.. the same as a straight bet.
Solid thread, solid discussion....whats truly amazing is that there‘s only been legitimate back and forth discussion and it hasnt devolved into childish name calling...thanks guys for he firm numbers...always knew the jist, but never the actual figures.
This .
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Quote Originally Posted by naesiy:
Solid thread, solid discussion....whats truly amazing is that there‘s only been legitimate back and forth discussion and it hasnt devolved into childish name calling...thanks guys for he firm numbers...always knew the jist, but never the actual figures.
Next week, Ed, I want you to give us a lesson on the teaser. Lots of debate about the value of teasers on this forum (I'm no good at them). But I'm sure that's a lot tougher to break down mathematically.
I would... but I'm not sure I could add anything more than this article: https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl-teaser/
I don't play teasers myself, so I'm probably not the one to ask. The above article is quite detailed and has a lot more information than I could provide.
In summary, note that with a 6-point teaser, you DO want to try to limit yourself to games with spreads of -8.5, -8, -7.5, 1.5, 2, and 2.5. This way you cross BOTH the all important margin of victory of 3 and 7.
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Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:
Next week, Ed, I want you to give us a lesson on the teaser. Lots of debate about the value of teasers on this forum (I'm no good at them). But I'm sure that's a lot tougher to break down mathematically.
I would... but I'm not sure I could add anything more than this article: https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl-teaser/
I don't play teasers myself, so I'm probably not the one to ask. The above article is quite detailed and has a lot more information than I could provide.
In summary, note that with a 6-point teaser, you DO want to try to limit yourself to games with spreads of -8.5, -8, -7.5, 1.5, 2, and 2.5. This way you cross BOTH the all important margin of victory of 3 and 7.
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