You have to agree that this season is very different from all NFL seasons we have seen so far. And, when I say so far - let me clarify - I'm betting sports since 1999 and haven't missed an NFL game day ever since.
But, this season is very different. First of all the season began without preseason games and only now the players and the teams are able to really control what they want to do. No crowds. COVID-19 reserve lists. Injuries due to not enough time to practice and no preseason. Etc.
So, let me start from the beginning: I am 55-34 with 61.80% win rate and +$10,330
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
You have to agree that this season is very different from all NFL seasons we have seen so far. And, when I say so far - let me clarify - I'm betting sports since 1999 and haven't missed an NFL game day ever since.
But, this season is very different. First of all the season began without preseason games and only now the players and the teams are able to really control what they want to do. No crowds. COVID-19 reserve lists. Injuries due to not enough time to practice and no preseason. Etc.
So, let me start from the beginning: I am 55-34 with 61.80% win rate and +$10,330
Let me show you latest gems before posting for the upcoming week:
NFL WEEK 12 WEDNESDAY: PIT STEELERS VS BAL RAVENS
The Steelers have all the right reasons to be motivated by Mike Tomlin to get at the Ravens from the first snap. No mercy. Cause, the Ravens are the reason the Steelers have to endure all this including playing on Wednesday 3:40 PM (also because of a Xmas tree lighting at NBC NYC that is scheduled live before the game). So, in a perfect world - we should see the Steelers beating COVID-19 stricken Ravens by at least 2 TD's if not more.
And, what about the Ravens? How will Harbaugh motivate almost fully reserve squad to withstand the mighty Steelers? Exactly by that: withstand the mighty Steelers cause no one expects you to.
Will that work on the Steelers side or on the Raven's side? Well, let's take a close look where the money's at and what did that money did line wise?
Well, more than one mil is placed on the sides and 80% of it is on the Steelers to cover 10.5 line.
In the ML department the picture is almost the same meaning: most of the public by far is convinced the Steelers will nit only win the match but will also cover convincingly.
With Robert Griffin III passing the ball to Dez Bryant will some Deja vu like eight years ago when Griffin was the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year and Dez Bryant caught 92 passes. In addition the Ravens will have only 10 players starting from the roster for the first game this season and that will be almost impossible to deal with without some mercy from the Steelers and Vegas, I'd say more Vegas than the Steelers.
Will that mercy be granted and more than that - will it be accepted skillfully? Well, there will not be any fans in attendance. The game is nationally televised and some new players on the pitch will see it as their only chance to get a recognition - so, 10-0 Steelers will have almost no reason to go with the public and hurt the NFL and Vegas by destroying the Ravens like they could if they really wanted.
In situations like this the refs are playing great role. Calling holdings on the Steelers and letting the Ravens off the hook depends how skillfully the Ravens will commit "uncalled" fouls. And that is the department I do not trust them.
The Ravens will kick the bucket and he Steelers will cover? Or, will the Steelers do everything to convince us they are in to win and cover but won't at the end and will only win?
I take you to the game against the Cowboys where the Steelers "should have" covered easily same as in only another game they didn't cover - against the Broncos at home.
But, the Ravens aren't the Broncos or the Cowboys. Still, winning by 10 points will serve the Steelers and the League as well as Vegas. So, why not?
Date:12/2/2020
Day:Wednesday
Home Team:PIT Steelers
Away Team:BAL Ravens
Pick:Away +10.5
Units:5
Odds:-110
Status:Win
Invested:550
Return:1050
Profit:500
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Let me show you latest gems before posting for the upcoming week:
NFL WEEK 12 WEDNESDAY: PIT STEELERS VS BAL RAVENS
The Steelers have all the right reasons to be motivated by Mike Tomlin to get at the Ravens from the first snap. No mercy. Cause, the Ravens are the reason the Steelers have to endure all this including playing on Wednesday 3:40 PM (also because of a Xmas tree lighting at NBC NYC that is scheduled live before the game). So, in a perfect world - we should see the Steelers beating COVID-19 stricken Ravens by at least 2 TD's if not more.
And, what about the Ravens? How will Harbaugh motivate almost fully reserve squad to withstand the mighty Steelers? Exactly by that: withstand the mighty Steelers cause no one expects you to.
Will that work on the Steelers side or on the Raven's side? Well, let's take a close look where the money's at and what did that money did line wise?
Well, more than one mil is placed on the sides and 80% of it is on the Steelers to cover 10.5 line.
In the ML department the picture is almost the same meaning: most of the public by far is convinced the Steelers will nit only win the match but will also cover convincingly.
With Robert Griffin III passing the ball to Dez Bryant will some Deja vu like eight years ago when Griffin was the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year and Dez Bryant caught 92 passes. In addition the Ravens will have only 10 players starting from the roster for the first game this season and that will be almost impossible to deal with without some mercy from the Steelers and Vegas, I'd say more Vegas than the Steelers.
Will that mercy be granted and more than that - will it be accepted skillfully? Well, there will not be any fans in attendance. The game is nationally televised and some new players on the pitch will see it as their only chance to get a recognition - so, 10-0 Steelers will have almost no reason to go with the public and hurt the NFL and Vegas by destroying the Ravens like they could if they really wanted.
In situations like this the refs are playing great role. Calling holdings on the Steelers and letting the Ravens off the hook depends how skillfully the Ravens will commit "uncalled" fouls. And that is the department I do not trust them.
The Ravens will kick the bucket and he Steelers will cover? Or, will the Steelers do everything to convince us they are in to win and cover but won't at the end and will only win?
I take you to the game against the Cowboys where the Steelers "should have" covered easily same as in only another game they didn't cover - against the Broncos at home.
But, the Ravens aren't the Broncos or the Cowboys. Still, winning by 10 points will serve the Steelers and the League as well as Vegas. So, why not?
No one cares about picks you post after the game is played;
Patience dear brother. I'm going to post Sunday's games too. But, to gain attention of those who are always doubting - I have to demonstrate the level of the past picks that were not posted here but were posted and are easy to check. Patience. That is all I ask. It is only Friday...
I promise it is going to be free and I am not going to send anyone to anywhere and there are not going to be links or some of that jazz
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Quote Originally Posted by thorpe:
No one cares about picks you post after the game is played;
Patience dear brother. I'm going to post Sunday's games too. But, to gain attention of those who are always doubting - I have to demonstrate the level of the past picks that were not posted here but were posted and are easy to check. Patience. That is all I ask. It is only Friday...
I promise it is going to be free and I am not going to send anyone to anywhere and there are not going to be links or some of that jazz
The Seahawks will have Carson back and that moves lines. The Eagles - on the other hand - might have Jalen Hurts as a starting QB replacing Carson Wentz who doesn't seem to overcome a high turnover ratio issue. May I note that the Eagles at home are pretty resilient and their biggest loss in home games except the first one to the Rams back on September was the loss to the Ravens by 2 points.
Few important things to take into a consideration when handicapping this game: the Seahawks Carlos Dunlop had a sack in each of his three games with the Seahawks while Carson Wentz - the Eagles QB is the most sacked QB in the league being sacked 40 times and 5 times last week.
Date:11/30/2020
Day:Monday
Home Team:PHI Eagles
Away Team:SEA Seahawks
Pick:Under 49.5
Units:5
Odds:-110
Status:Win
Invested:550
Return:1050
Profit:500
On the other hand - the Seahawks allow high passing rate letting 70% of the passes against them to be completed while the Eagles Sanders can torch them both ways. But, Carlos Hyde of the Seahawks can do the same on the ground to the Eagles.
The conclusion is that both teams rather exploit running game than engage in aerial assaults and that leads me to an under pick for this MNF game.
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NFL MNF: PHI EAGLES VS SEA SEAHAWKS
The Seahawks will have Carson back and that moves lines. The Eagles - on the other hand - might have Jalen Hurts as a starting QB replacing Carson Wentz who doesn't seem to overcome a high turnover ratio issue. May I note that the Eagles at home are pretty resilient and their biggest loss in home games except the first one to the Rams back on September was the loss to the Ravens by 2 points.
Few important things to take into a consideration when handicapping this game: the Seahawks Carlos Dunlop had a sack in each of his three games with the Seahawks while Carson Wentz - the Eagles QB is the most sacked QB in the league being sacked 40 times and 5 times last week.
Date:11/30/2020
Day:Monday
Home Team:PHI Eagles
Away Team:SEA Seahawks
Pick:Under 49.5
Units:5
Odds:-110
Status:Win
Invested:550
Return:1050
Profit:500
On the other hand - the Seahawks allow high passing rate letting 70% of the passes against them to be completed while the Eagles Sanders can torch them both ways. But, Carlos Hyde of the Seahawks can do the same on the ground to the Eagles.
The conclusion is that both teams rather exploit running game than engage in aerial assaults and that leads me to an under pick for this MNF game.
LMAO thorpe...way to make a guy feel welcome. We all know what you felt the need to say...
Not unlike DOUBLEUP doing a whole writeup on the AFC playoffs, what 10 post or more, and the next post a guy asks if he has any picks for the MAC this weekend. It's like WTF?
So good on you, mate, jumping' right on this guy's azz before he can maybe explain himself...and actually there's prolly quite a few guys here that would care to hear him out.
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LMAO thorpe...way to make a guy feel welcome. We all know what you felt the need to say...
Not unlike DOUBLEUP doing a whole writeup on the AFC playoffs, what 10 post or more, and the next post a guy asks if he has any picks for the MAC this weekend. It's like WTF?
So good on you, mate, jumping' right on this guy's azz before he can maybe explain himself...and actually there's prolly quite a few guys here that would care to hear him out.
Last week alone - past 7 days the record is 7-1 with $3,450 profit and 87.50 % winning rate. The question is how it is done.
No. I am not doing this but know the system how it is done and beginning this weekend I will post the picks handicapped according to that very system.
I know there is no winning system in sports betting but there is a responsive system and that is what I am talking about.
The basic rule is : HOUSE ALWAYS WINS
The goal is to know WHAT THE HOUSE WANTS TO HAPPEN
The path to that knowledge lays in WHAT GAMES HOUSE WANTS TO INTERFERE
The technique finding that path is what is unique cause you have to agree that such winning rate in such crazy season over such long sample period is not something accidental
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Last week alone - past 7 days the record is 7-1 with $3,450 profit and 87.50 % winning rate. The question is how it is done.
No. I am not doing this but know the system how it is done and beginning this weekend I will post the picks handicapped according to that very system.
I know there is no winning system in sports betting but there is a responsive system and that is what I am talking about.
The basic rule is : HOUSE ALWAYS WINS
The goal is to know WHAT THE HOUSE WANTS TO HAPPEN
The path to that knowledge lays in WHAT GAMES HOUSE WANTS TO INTERFERE
The technique finding that path is what is unique cause you have to agree that such winning rate in such crazy season over such long sample period is not something accidental
I can already tell you that the games to be looked at and considered are the Titans -6 and the Rams -3. That is on sides and later towards Sunday there also will be some totals to look at. I suggest not to jump yet on those picks but observe the line behavior and if you somehow have an access to the info with how much money is on what side - that would be helpful. I will have a definite pick on the College Football game tonight between the Mountaineers and the Ragin' Cajuns
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I can already tell you that the games to be looked at and considered are the Titans -6 and the Rams -3. That is on sides and later towards Sunday there also will be some totals to look at. I suggest not to jump yet on those picks but observe the line behavior and if you somehow have an access to the info with how much money is on what side - that would be helpful. I will have a definite pick on the College Football game tonight between the Mountaineers and the Ragin' Cajuns
@thorpe So you're the Sergeant-At-Arms for the COVERS Community, eh? We speak for OURSELVES...you DON"T speak for us. LMAO "someone said he was a shill for a tout"...and that's all you needed to hear. Light the torches, men...let's get him!!! You don't wanna listen...move on, brother...don't shit where we're living.
Thorpe and I are back from the Covers days where BS like this dude is spewing would be called out instantly by 20+ different cappers..
Maybe we should just let the sheep like you continue to get slaughtered by low brow con artists??
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
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Quote Originally Posted by DB51daBEARS:
@thorpe So you're the Sergeant-At-Arms for the COVERS Community, eh? We speak for OURSELVES...you DON"T speak for us. LMAO "someone said he was a shill for a tout"...and that's all you needed to hear. Light the torches, men...let's get him!!! You don't wanna listen...move on, brother...don't shit where we're living.
Thorpe and I are back from the Covers days where BS like this dude is spewing would be called out instantly by 20+ different cappers..
Maybe we should just let the sheep like you continue to get slaughtered by low brow con artists??
He tried this last year too. Went 0-2 and then disappeared after someone said he was a shill for a tout named MK. https://www.covers.com/forum/nfl-betting-21/can-money-be-made-on-consistent-bases-betting-on-sports-and-especially-nfl-i-say-yes-see-how-103395160/2
These clowns are so easily busted playing. Low brow games ...
You crack me up Brother ..
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
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Quote Originally Posted by thorpe:
He tried this last year too. Went 0-2 and then disappeared after someone said he was a shill for a tout named MK. https://www.covers.com/forum/nfl-betting-21/can-money-be-made-on-consistent-bases-betting-on-sports-and-especially-nfl-i-say-yes-see-how-103395160/2
These clowns are so easily busted playing. Low brow games ...
I can already tell you that the games to be looked at and considered are the Titans -6 and the Rams -3. That is on sides and later towards Sunday there also will be some totals to look at. I suggest not to jump yet on those picks but observe the line behavior and if you somehow have an access to the info with how much money is on what side - that would be helpful.
@14allall41
Don't know where you'd find out the $$$ bet per side...that's beyond invaluable; insider information.
I was looking at Rams@Cardinals only because Sandor included them in his post about "trying a new system".
ARIZ tickets for the ML have increased from 60 to 65% since this time yesterday but books haven't increased the juice on that bet; pretty steady. Looks like they're encouraging more LA ML bets. One of the long-time cappers had some very interesting info on MNF Sea@Phi large money bets, but no totals.
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Quote Originally Posted by 14allall41:
I can already tell you that the games to be looked at and considered are the Titans -6 and the Rams -3. That is on sides and later towards Sunday there also will be some totals to look at. I suggest not to jump yet on those picks but observe the line behavior and if you somehow have an access to the info with how much money is on what side - that would be helpful.
@14allall41
Don't know where you'd find out the $$$ bet per side...that's beyond invaluable; insider information.
I was looking at Rams@Cardinals only because Sandor included them in his post about "trying a new system".
ARIZ tickets for the ML have increased from 60 to 65% since this time yesterday but books haven't increased the juice on that bet; pretty steady. Looks like they're encouraging more LA ML bets. One of the long-time cappers had some very interesting info on MNF Sea@Phi large money bets, but no totals.
Quote Originally Posted by 14allall41: I can already tell you that the games to be looked at and considered are the Titans -6 and the Rams -3. That is on sides and later towards Sunday there also will be some totals to look at. I suggest not to jump yet on those picks but observe the line behavior and if you somehow have an access to the info with how much money is on what side - that would be helpful. @14allall41 Don't know where you'd find out the $$$ bet per side...that's beyond invaluable; insider information. I was looking at Rams@Cardinals only because Sandor included them in his post about "trying a new system". ARIZ tickets for the ML have increased from 60 to 65% since this time yesterday but books haven't increased the juice on that bet; pretty steady. Looks like they're encouraging more LA ML bets. One of the long-time cappers had some very interesting info on MNF Sea@Phi large money bets, but no totals.
Rams ML opened at -110 and is now -150. That is consistent with money. But the sides behave differently: despite more than 80% of the side money being on the Cardinals - the line has moved in opposite direction from -1 Rams to -3. You can argue that actually giving the Cardinals FG at home is the cause there is more money on the Cardinals and then use the ML moves as an argument. That is why I said not to jump it yet.
As far as you reacting to all the losers who are always downgrading anyone else just by saying they have been here forever - please do not waste your time. these are perpetual losers with bombastic names who had been burned time after time and therefore they have no trust in no one which is totally understandable. Yet, that doesn't change the fact that they are losers
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Quote Originally Posted by DB51daBEARS:
Quote Originally Posted by 14allall41: I can already tell you that the games to be looked at and considered are the Titans -6 and the Rams -3. That is on sides and later towards Sunday there also will be some totals to look at. I suggest not to jump yet on those picks but observe the line behavior and if you somehow have an access to the info with how much money is on what side - that would be helpful. @14allall41 Don't know where you'd find out the $$$ bet per side...that's beyond invaluable; insider information. I was looking at Rams@Cardinals only because Sandor included them in his post about "trying a new system". ARIZ tickets for the ML have increased from 60 to 65% since this time yesterday but books haven't increased the juice on that bet; pretty steady. Looks like they're encouraging more LA ML bets. One of the long-time cappers had some very interesting info on MNF Sea@Phi large money bets, but no totals.
Rams ML opened at -110 and is now -150. That is consistent with money. But the sides behave differently: despite more than 80% of the side money being on the Cardinals - the line has moved in opposite direction from -1 Rams to -3. You can argue that actually giving the Cardinals FG at home is the cause there is more money on the Cardinals and then use the ML moves as an argument. That is why I said not to jump it yet.
As far as you reacting to all the losers who are always downgrading anyone else just by saying they have been here forever - please do not waste your time. these are perpetual losers with bombastic names who had been burned time after time and therefore they have no trust in no one which is totally understandable. Yet, that doesn't change the fact that they are losers
Quote Originally Posted by 14allall41: Last week alone - past 7 days the record is 7-1 with $3,450 profit and 87.50 % winning rate. The question is how it is done. No. I am not doing this but know the system how it is done and beginning this weekend I will post the picks handicapped according to that very system. I know there is no winning system in sports betting but there is a responsive system and that is what I am talking about. The basic rule is : HOUSE ALWAYS WINS The goal is to know WHAT THE HOUSE WANTS TO HAPPEN The path to that knowledge lays in WHAT GAMES HOUSE WANTS TO INTERFERE The technique finding that path is what is unique cause you have to agree that such winning rate in such crazy season over such long sample period is not something accidental Nothing new here. The picks you posted retroactively - I know where they are from. The point is how do you know you can handicap them on your own?
Watch and see. Did I ask for anything from anyone? No. If you don't like what I do or do not trust it - walk away. And good luck.
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Quote Originally Posted by HeyJoe:
Quote Originally Posted by 14allall41: Last week alone - past 7 days the record is 7-1 with $3,450 profit and 87.50 % winning rate. The question is how it is done. No. I am not doing this but know the system how it is done and beginning this weekend I will post the picks handicapped according to that very system. I know there is no winning system in sports betting but there is a responsive system and that is what I am talking about. The basic rule is : HOUSE ALWAYS WINS The goal is to know WHAT THE HOUSE WANTS TO HAPPEN The path to that knowledge lays in WHAT GAMES HOUSE WANTS TO INTERFERE The technique finding that path is what is unique cause you have to agree that such winning rate in such crazy season over such long sample period is not something accidental Nothing new here. The picks you posted retroactively - I know where they are from. The point is how do you know you can handicap them on your own?
Watch and see. Did I ask for anything from anyone? No. If you don't like what I do or do not trust it - walk away. And good luck.
I will agree that the SEASON has been different but BETTING the season has been about the same, minus covid BS. Betting the market has been no different than any other year.
Save America
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@14allall41
I will agree that the SEASON has been different but BETTING the season has been about the same, minus covid BS. Betting the market has been no different than any other year.
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