Divisional playoff winners.

Question

Hit KC -1.5 for 1/2 a unit. Will add another half unit if Pitt money drives KC to being a small dog. That's the game that really stands out to me off the bat. Worst case scenario is I'll end up 1/2 unit at -1.5 and 1/2 unit at -2.5.

Other games lean Houston +17, Atlanta -4, and GB +3.5. Gotta a lot of work to do breaking them down and will be back later in the week as things progress. Nice start to playoffs. Giants squashed what would have been a perfect sweep two weekends in a row!

Have Clemson in a pair of teasers that the first half hit a couple weeks ago, so I'm looking at the game almost like a straight bet Clemson +14(both teasers were small 1/2 unit Week 17 plays). In my pool, I'm 99.9% going Clemson +7. Win and pool is mine. If bama wins, and other guy who is one game behind me has Bama, it will come down to the tiebreaker which I'm going 41. I might even tick it up a little bit as I'm guessing most people will expect a high scoring game. If I can guess what the other guy is going, but still stay below him(let's say he says 55, and I go 47) I can secure it where 51 and under and the tiebreaker is mine(I believe it's gonna be low scoring). I'm thinking 24-17 kind of defensive game.

Should be a great game and next weekend should be great NFL action. Outside of Houston, and I'm not even looking past them as any team with a defense as good as theirs is live especially when getting an absurd 17 points, but I think all of the pretenders have been wiped out. Pitt/KC/Houston/NE/Dallas/GB/Seattle/Atlanta left. Ben, smith, Osweiler, Brady, Dak, Wilson, Rodgers, Ryan.......outside of Osweiler, QB play is fantastic and should lead to some excellent football games. Makes me almost lean DOGS all out of the gate. But we shall see.

Hopefully, everyone had a profitable weekend, and go into Week 2 playoffs playing with house money!!

glyde69 · Answer

Hit KC -1.5 for 1/2 a unit. Will add another half unit if Pitt money drives KC to being a small dog. That's the game that really stands out to me off the bat. Worst case scenario is I'll end up 1/2 unit at -1.5 and 1/2 unit at -2.5.

Other games lean Houston +17, Atlanta -4, and GB +3.5. Gotta a lot of work to do breaking them down and will be back later in the week as things progress. Nice start to playoffs. Giants squashed what would have been a perfect sweep two weekends in a row!

Have Clemson in a pair of teasers that the first half hit a couple weeks ago, so I'm looking at the game almost like a straight bet Clemson +14(both teasers were small 1/2 unit Week 17 plays). In my pool, I'm 99.9% going Clemson +7. Win and pool is mine. If bama wins, and other guy who is one game behind me has Bama, it will come down to the tiebreaker which I'm going 41. I might even tick it up a little bit as I'm guessing most people will expect a high scoring game. If I can guess what the other guy is going, but still stay below him(let's say he says 55, and I go 47) I can secure it where 51 and under and the tiebreaker is mine(I believe it's gonna be low scoring). I'm thinking 24-17 kind of defensive game.

Should be a great game and next weekend should be great NFL action. Outside of Houston, and I'm not even looking past them as any team with a defense as good as theirs is live especially when getting an absurd 17 points, but I think all of the pretenders have been wiped out. Pitt/KC/Houston/NE/Dallas/GB/Seattle/Atlanta left. Ben, smith, Osweiler, Brady, Dak, Wilson, Rodgers, Ryan.......outside of Osweiler, QB play is fantastic and should lead to some excellent football games. Makes me almost lean DOGS all out of the gate. But we shall see.

Hopefully, everyone had a profitable weekend, and go into Week 2 playoffs playing with house money!!

Jrod6 · Answer

gl glyde, seems like your always on point bro. As far as clemson gos im seeing so much love for them, not sure who ill take

glyde69 · Answer

Thanks JR6. Appreciate that. I pluck a lot of great info from this site, met some cool dudes over the years, and even learned a few things on here,  so I try to give back the best I can with some insight and try to spark some conversation in my threads. Information is power in sports gambling! Yea it&#x27;s never the best feeling when you see the entire world on a play u take. Especially the hacks on ESPN, and the "experts" on CBS/Yahoo etc. A forum like Covers is a little bit of a different beast, but professional analysts and experts on sports sites are regularly mooshes. It&#x27;s crazy that pro analysts are guys who played ball since pop Warner, through college, through a decade in the pros, walk into 7 figure jobs on ESPN, and yet they STILL don&#x27;t understand certain aspects of the game(usually motivational and situational aspects) they dedicated their whole life to. One guy who kind of gets it is Dilfer and go figure, he stunk on ice as a QB! GL man, looking forward to seeing your plays this weekend.

glyde69 · Answer

QUOTE#7Posted: 1/8/2017 11:55:58 PMI posted quick thoughts in polar bears thread about this upcoming weekend. Nothing in depth by any means, but I figured I would copy and paste it here to save the time or repeating myself later in the week. NONE of these are official Plays(outside of KC), but gut feelings as of now a few hours after WC Weekend ended.......I LOVE the Chiefs here. I&#x27;m not gonna say I circled the game, but I really hoped Pitt would steamroll Miami for the world to see, and open up KC as a small fav under -3 or even a small home dog once all the people who jumped off the Pitt bandwagon around Week 5 all came back after watching them slaughter a helpless Phins in style. I grabbed them -1.5 -101 for 1/2 unit, and hoping to get them as a small dog for the other half unit. Worse case scenario, it moves the other way, and I grab them -2.5 for that 1/2 unit. Atlanta I lean very strongly towards, but haven&#x27;t pulled the trigger yet. Seattle has been very good to me going back to the night Beast Mode was crowned, and before i go against them when it counts, I want to explore every angle possible before i hit Atlanta. Plus I would like to get on the right side of 4. GB the same. I was thinking Dallas no matter what, and a short line of -3.5 is begging for me to follow through, but if it trickles up to right side of 4, I don&#x27;t know how I pass up on GB right now. They will Swiss cheese that dallas defense, and if they can just be OKAY at stopping the run, and getting off the field in a lot of 3 and mediums compared to 3rd and 1s, they are gonna be tough. Plus as awesome as Dak has been....if Rodgers comes out slinging and goes up early.....the rookie in his first playoff game playing cat and mouse with Dom Capwers can wind up breaking him down. Elliot 28 carries 110 yards...that&#x27;s the magic #. Keep him under that and GB covers. Houston I&#x27;m leaning to at &#x2B;16/17-ish. That defense is the real deal. And NE has been lucky to get a long run of mediocre QB&#x27;s this year to shield the fact that they CANNOT get pressure on the quarterback this season.  If they protect Osweiler, and he can just play clean, I don&#x27;t see why this isn&#x27;t a tight 23-17 game. 17 points is bananas especially when it&#x27;s a top 3 defense we are talking about getting those points. They can be run on, but by no means is it a glaring weakness. GL polar bear, I think you have a winning week on your hands.

begginerboy · Answer

Hey Glyde,Didn&#x27;t Osweiler beat the undefeated Pats last year? He has their number (LOL). I don&#x27;t like how the Packers got beat up today. Check out their injury report because they will need all those guys against the Cowboys. Also recall, the Cowboys got jobbed in GB a couple of years ago when the refs ruled that Bryant did not come down with the football. Cowboys should have won that game. But I never bet against Rodgers, especially if all his receivers are a go, and against a rookie QB. I imagine it will be a shootout because how can the Pack stop the Cowboys with that massive O-line? As far as the Seahawks go, I am sentimental like you but I think their best days are behind them. Still, I don&#x27;t think I would have the guts to bet against them. Good luck!

Jrod6 · Answer

Liking it man, your insight is definitely intriguing to read. I know this is the NFL thread but anyway you could post your write up if you have one on why your on Clemson? Thx. And yes the points for Houston is crazy but they did get shutout earlier this year by a 3rd stringer QB. Well see still anothe week but can&#x27;t wait being a new Englander my pats have an easy game next week. And KC very underrated, big be with the walking boot never good to see ESP when there&#x27;s a playoff games in a few days GL

Rags2Ritches · Answer

Omfg someone just shoot me now, why did I torture myself into reading this horrible English writing. Did you just graduate from 5th grade? Jesus Christ! Thank you for giving me the biggest headache to end a wonderful night, don&#x27;t bother replying cause I&#x27;m NEVR torturing myself again opening threads from this 5th grade valedictorian.

tito40 · Answer

you misused the word "cause" and misspelled "never"...among other mistakes.

charlielo55 · Answer

Looks good bro, good luck

Metallica2467 · Answer

BOL this week Glyde.

bpickin · Answer

What a loser

desertspade · Answer

I like KC but I&#x27;m waiting on that line. I want to see where it moves when Big Ben announces that his boot is off and his leg is all good.

glyde69 · Answer

Thanks Beginner Boy.....don&#x27;t know about Osweiler pulling another win(lol) but just don&#x27;t GIVE the game to NE and they could cover this behind their defense alone. 17 a lot of points. Sorry JROD, didn&#x27;t see your post until now.  Hopefully you hit Clemson. What a game! Rags to Riches, next time instead of typing away with my thumb on my phone spur of the moment half drunk, I will do this for you. I&#x27;ll write a couple early drafts, have it edited, and I&#x27;ll get it to you with AT LEAST 8th grade writing skills. Jerk-off. Tito Charlie Metallica B-pickin not worth your time man Desert, same here. Thinking the big reveal that he practiced in full Thursday and Friday might move the line our way a point or two. If not, I&#x27;m happy -1/-2 ish.

CalBear · Answer

Good luck bud

MRxKrazz · Answer

Man good to see you back here weekly!!GL on all your plays.

Europa · Answer

Best of luck, Glyde69!

trainwreck66 · Answer

bol this week bud

Macwestie1 · Answer

GL to US his weekend Glyde Same card on my radar as well

Skipster · Answer

douch bagg

Skipster · Answer

i like the chiefs, Glyde. tough place to play. seems to me like the hawks are a man down when they go on the road, but it&#x27;s hard to back ice in the playoffs with too much enthusiasm.

Achilles1629 · Answer

The public is absolutely loving KC in this spot. 700k towards KC as opposed to 60k on Pittsburgh?! That&#x27;s what I&#x27;m seeing and even if those numbers are a bit off, that is a huge difference. I feel home field advantage, Reids record after a bye and big Ben&#x27;s "injury" has flooded the minds of bettors. It will be very tough for me to bet against Pittsburgh in this game because I think as good as KCs defense has been, Pittsburgh can beat you in so many ways. Hill and kelce create a ton of problems but bell and brown are better and big ben can will a team to victory better than almost any. The key in this game and going forward for Pittsburgh is their front on defense. If they can get pressure without having to bring more than 6, NOBODY beats the steelers. NOBODY. As much as I&#x27;m sure smith and Reid have something to prove, big ben, brown and bell have yet to all be healthy and now that they are, they know this is prolly their best chance at a title. I lean Pittsburgh ML here

glyde69 · Answer

Atlanta -4. Local finally gave up that hook.

Seattle is a team I've loved betting on and rooting the past couple years, but I think I have to go against them here. There's a small thing in the back of my mind saying "oof Matt Ryan hasn't exactly been the best in the playoffs the last few years," but the difference here is he has the team to back him up this time. That offense has been unstoppable this season. Outside of a lone game at Philly that was a horrible spot for them, what's their low point total for the year? 24 maybe? Seattle's defense is tough as always, but between losing guys little by little to free agency, and one HUGE injury in their secondary this isn't the same defense as a couple years ago. I don't see them stopping this Atlanta assault who is now rested and poised to put some points. Defensively, Atlanta isn't the hottest, and Seattle should score some, but I don't see Seattle being able to run the ball on an aggressive defense that swarms and causes turnovers, and that leaves Wilson to win the game on his arms and legs, and I just think he comes up short in 35-24 kind of game.

Another angle I kind of like is the last couple months of the season, these two teams have played a ton of similar opponents. Some were just two weeks ago, and while some were maybe a couple of months, and a lot can change in a couple of months for a pair of NFL teams, I think looking at what they did against common opponents overall the last 2-10 weeks is an angle worth checking out.

San Fran:

- Seattle beat them 25-23.

- Atlanta beat them 42-14.

Arizona:

- Seattle lost 34-31

- Atlanta won 38-19

Rams:

- Seattle 24-3

- Atlanta 42-14

Green Bay:

- Seattle lost 38-10

- Atlanta won 33-32

Panthers:

- Seattle 40-7

- Atlanta 33-16

Tampa Bay:

- Seattle lost 15-6

- Atlanta won 43-28

Not all of these are blatant one sided cases of Atlanta blowing out the same opponents Seattle just skated by or lost SU to, but it shows Atlanta has dispatched similar teams with greater ease. Does this guarantee an Atlanta win? Of course not. But these 6 teams are a mix of different style teams. Some hard nosed defensive teams. Some middle of the road teams. Some terrible defensively. And Atlanta for the most part had a much easier time with the same exact opposition.

Atlanta -4 for me

glyde69 · Answer

Dallas/GB I just cannot make my mind up. Part of me says GB is in the midst of what a handful of teams have done in winning the SB this past decade which is getting hot late in the season, carrying that do or die vibe into the playoffs, and then wiping out teams second round who have had little to play for for weeks/even months. The Giants did it twice. GB themselves did it a few years ago and Atlanta was beat before they knew what hit them. The year Zona lost in the SB, I remember Carolina coming off the bye and being ambushed. Etc etc. On top of that, Aaron Rodgers getting points vs a true rookie QB. Tough to go Dallas there.

On the other side, though. Dallas offensive line should have no problems dominating the point of attack. Controlling TOP. Dak and Zeke making plays like they have done all year. A defense that stops the run, bends but don't break, and make an opposing QB one dimensional at the same time. All while the injuries are piling up insanely for the GB defense, and on top of all that, Rodgers loses his #1 Jordy Nelson. Dallas rested, off the bye, ready to roll. Tough to back the Pack this spot.

My gut said GB earlier in the week. Now I'm kind of leaning toward Dallas as things get closer to game time. Still not sure where I'm rolling in this game.

Houston I just can't pass on 15-16(and maybe 17 points if the line moves my way tomorrow). Too many points for a team with such a good defense. If they can pressure Brady at all, they can really make this a ball game and NE doesn't score a cover in a game they open up late to win 31-17. Plus NE's biggest weakness on defense is the lack of pass rush that they generate. It's been hidden by the caliber of quarterback they have faced so far in 2016 in:

- Week 1. Carson Palmer(before we knew what a downyear he had)

- Week 2. Ryan Tannahill

- Week 3. Osweiler(young in his career; not that he improved much)

- Week 4. Tyrod Taylor

- Week 5. Kessler on Browns

- Week 6. Dayton(down season for Bengals)

- Week 7. Landry Jones

- Week 8. Tyrod Taylor

- Week 9. Bye

- Week 10. Russell Wilson(first good QB and they lose)

- Week 11. Colin Kaepernick

- Week 12. Ryan Fitzpatrick

- Week 13. Case Keenum

- Week 14. Joe Flacco

- Week 15. Simiean

- Week 16. Ryan Fitzpatrick

- Week 17. Matt Moore

Not exactly a murderers row and it's insane how he avoided not only good football teams, but seemingly every great QB in the league outside of Wilson and the Seahawks.

So playing these stiffs completely hid the fact that this team, while overall an ok and very disciplined defense, did not produce any kind of pressure on their opposing QB's. I was ready to fade NE the second they had a good QB play them this playoffs, but there's really only one in Big Ben and they aren't meeting until possibly later in the playoffs. If Osweiler can play smart and not feel footsteps that probably aren't even gonna be there, I don't see why he can score 17 points and put the team in a spot of an easy cover getting so many points. Houston D has to do their thing though. Play smart. Get pressure on Brady. Don't be fooled by McDaniels nonsense schemes and tricky ways to line up. Just do your thing and play good hard nosed ball, and they can keep this reasonably close.

I haven't locked up Houston yet, but I'll pop back in when I do. Still hoping the line snakes back up closer to 17 again.

earthWake · Answer

Seattle &#x2B;5Seattle MLAtlanta FH - Seattle Full (&#x2B;900)Goodluck man. Don&#x27;t blame anybody for backing Atlanta. I truly hope seattle goes down 7-0 or 14-0 so I can pound some Seattle in-game. Could be 24-7 at halftime and I would expect Wilson to bring them back. Glyde.

vankiep_0007 · Answer

Gl tomorrow Bro

Divisional playoff winners.

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