Dallas/GB I just cannot make my mind up. Part of me says GB is in the midst of what a handful of teams have done in winning the SB this past decade which is getting hot late in the season, carrying that do or die vibe into the playoffs, and then wiping out teams second round who have had little to play for for weeks/even months. The Giants did it twice. GB themselves did it a few years ago and Atlanta was beat before they knew what hit them. The year Zona lost in the SB, I remember Carolina coming off the bye and being ambushed. Etc etc. On top of that, Aaron Rodgers getting points vs a true rookie QB. Tough to go Dallas there.
On the other side, though. Dallas offensive line should have no problems dominating the point of attack. Controlling TOP. Dak and Zeke making plays like they have done all year. A defense that stops the run, bends but don't break, and make an opposing QB one dimensional at the same time. All while the injuries are piling up insanely for the GB defense, and on top of all that, Rodgers loses his #1 Jordy Nelson. Dallas rested, off the bye, ready to roll. Tough to back the Pack this spot.
My gut said GB earlier in the week. Now I'm kind of leaning toward Dallas as things get closer to game time. Still not sure where I'm rolling in this game.
Houston I just can't pass on 15-16(and maybe 17 points if the line moves my way tomorrow). Too many points for a team with such a good defense. If they can pressure Brady at all, they can really make this a ball game and NE doesn't score a cover in a game they open up late to win 31-17. Plus NE's biggest weakness on defense is the lack of pass rush that they generate. It's been hidden by the caliber of quarterback they have faced so far in 2016 in:
- Week 1. Carson Palmer(before we knew what a downyear he had)
- Week 2. Ryan Tannahill
- Week 3. Osweiler(young in his career; not that he improved much)
- Week 4. Tyrod Taylor
- Week 5. Kessler on Browns
- Week 6. Dayton(down season for Bengals)
- Week 7. Landry Jones
- Week 8. Tyrod Taylor
- Week 9. Bye
- Week 10. Russell Wilson(first good QB and they lose)
- Week 11. Colin Kaepernick
- Week 12. Ryan Fitzpatrick
- Week 13. Case Keenum
- Week 14. Joe Flacco
- Week 15. Simiean
- Week 16. Ryan Fitzpatrick
- Week 17. Matt Moore
Not exactly a murderers row and it's insane how he avoided not only good football teams, but seemingly every great QB in the league outside of Wilson and the Seahawks.
So playing these stiffs completely hid the fact that this team, while overall an ok and very disciplined defense, did not produce any kind of pressure on their opposing QB's. I was ready to fade NE the second they had a good QB play them this playoffs, but there's really only one in Big Ben and they aren't meeting until possibly later in the playoffs. If Osweiler can play smart and not feel footsteps that probably aren't even gonna be there, I don't see why he can score 17 points and put the team in a spot of an easy cover getting so many points. Houston D has to do their thing though. Play smart. Get pressure on Brady. Don't be fooled by McDaniels nonsense schemes and tricky ways to line up. Just do your thing and play good hard nosed ball, and they can keep this reasonably close.
I haven't locked up Houston yet, but I'll pop back in when I do. Still hoping the line snakes back up closer to 17 again.