I have posted lengthy enough comments in other threads for the first 2 games but you can judge my confidence by the units. 5 units is my usual max play which rarely appears before playoff time. Just a short summary: two young teams off of blowout victories facing rested teams that have looked easily like the best teams in their conferences, with excellent defenses and the most balanced offenses, both top 5 in rushing and while Baltimore is not even top 10 in passing yards they are top 5 in yarde per completion which is actually more important (lots of teams rack up passing yards when playing from behind or having to pass aa lot because they can't get stops like Detroit)
Baltimore in particular with their top rated sacks and takeaways, top rated run game, and a QB that isn't old and slow, will quickly make the Texans even more one dimensional and just run them into the ground, crushing them in TOP and making Stroud more uncomfortable than ever - so uncomfortable he finally commits turnovers and that will be the end of that.
Ravens -9 3 units and -8.5 5 units
Intense line shopping during the week as this is my biggest play of the season easily with 8 units total.
SF -9 5 units
SF owns GB like GB owned Dallas. The NFC East was weak this year, the NFC west wasn't. CMC is a beast and a big part of why the 9ers lead the NFL in yards per completion. I only looked back the last 5 years but I believe every year the 2 super bowl contenders were top 5 in the NFL in this stat. (Actually when SF was in it they were 6th, but literally .1 yard below the 5th placed team). Just something to keep an eye on. This year besides SF Houston and Baltimore are top 5 with detroit and GB 6th and 7th, Buffalo 9th and KC 18th. Pretty tight. Defensively SF, KC, Baltimore and Buffalo are all top 5 in that stat while Detroit is dreadful houston and GB middle of the pack and TB a little more than the middle.
SF is the clear favorite to win this conference for a reason. I've never seen their offense sputter like Dallas' did 1st half last week, in fact I never seen Dallas do that either but I'll roll the dice on that not happening 2 weeks in a row with the team number 2 in punts per score. Cowboys moved the ball at will 2nd half and that was with them having only passes really available. Just a totally different animal this week a physical and rested team with incredible balance. This is the 4th road game in 5 weeks and 5th in 6 weeks for GB. As great as they looked last week winning by 16 the 9ers actually beat Dallas by double the margin this year 42-10.