Week 4 Bounce back week

High profile teams kicked butt last week.  Fact is historically, thats not a surprise. 

Also not a surprise is the case for regression in week 4.  From weeks 4-12 is where I have the most success. 

A week 4 favorite that is 3-0 ATS are 51-69-3 ATS. 

Breaking these down:

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If one of these teams lines are  a big favorite of -10 or higher, and these teams are not in the top 25 and these teams did not win 8 regular season games last season. The results for these week 4 favorites are 7-17 ATS.  Going a little further within this if these favorites won the game in their previous game as A dog they are 1-6 ATS.  The qualifying team is Wash St. 

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Any ranked favorite 3-0 ATS team is 17-32 ATS, within this if the line is from -1 to -13 the ranked favorite is 2-14 ats, Nebraska and Tennessee. 

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Any ranked home favorite 3-0 ATS team are 9-22 ATS.  Texas, Ole Miss, and Nebraska.

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Illinois vs. Nebraska is interesting because Illinois is also 3-0 ATS and is over 60% consensus on the in the king of covers contest.  That poses A questionable situation as these public type teams I dont feel confident in. 

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Any week 4 Away favorite with a line <=-5 or higher that is 3-0 ATS is 8-17 ATS, Tennessee, Miami FL, and Memphis. 

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Any 0 loss away chalk that is off an ATS loss, but only 1 failed cover in a row are 17-11 60%,  Duke 

any favorite that is 3-0 ATS and won as a dog in their first game of the season is 1-11 ATS, Boston College. 

week = 4 and po:division = FBS and F and ats streak>0 and n:site = home and line<-3 and rank<=25

Any week  4 favorite that played a FBS opponent in their last game is currently off an ATS successful cover, is a ranked team and the current line is higher than -3 and their next game will be at home. 

27-47-0 (36.5%) Kansas St., Notre Dame, Clemson, USC, Texas, Ole Miss, Miami FL.

if these teams are 3-0 ats they are 3-16 ATS. Texas, Ole Miss, Miami FL.

Dog crap dogs :

week = 4 and F and rank = None and p:D and t:wins > 0 and 8 > PRSW > 2 and line >= -6 and site = home and PPRSW<8 and o:ats streak>-2 and o:wins<3

week 4 favorite that is unranked, and was a dog in their previous game, and has at least 1 win and last season won at least 3 games but not as many as 8 games.  In their previous  previous season didn’t win 8 games. Isn’t on a multiple game cover losing streak. And their opponent has not won 3 games this season.  

these teams are not good favorites and also playing bad teams.  

play against :  8-23 ATS

Army, Louisiana Tech, U Conn

@spottie2935

week<6 and HF and ou streak>2 and rank = None and p:points>20 and total<66

= 40 unders, 16 overs

Any team with at least 3 overs in a row before week 6 and the team is not ranked and the team scored at least 21 last game the current total is less than 66

unders:

U Conn 46.5

J'Ville St.  60

Notre Dame over 43

thx for sharing, good info.

U have talked me out of BC.

I do like ILLY, I was hoping to get +10, but it looks like its going the other way.

I think ND is on a mission now, MIA(oh) has zero offense, I wanted to get a good number on UNDER, but ND could cover that themselves.

RUT +3 1/2, VTECH @ MIA(FL) NW

N'West +10 1/2

OU/UK U 43

BGSU +22 1/2 (if wigman plays )

Whats your thoughts on those games? GL

p:AF and AD and 8>week>3 and o:rank>4 and line<23

on Vanderbilt +21 

34-15-3 (69.4%)

@buceye9

 I have not come across the games you list and in week 4 is pretty specific.  I have a pretty sigular focus on what I play and if I expand too much my ROI lessens. 

I will post the games and lines I get later in the week.  Good luck and appreciate you stopping in.  

As far as BC this is a great dog team when they play less than outstanding teams.,  They can also play down to their opponents.  In my opinion these type of teams are fades after a few dog games people tennd to trust them when flipping to favorites and that is the time to fade them.

I dont trust teams like BC as small dogs or favorites.  They do  best as dog in good situations like sandwich type games.   

You should pick a few suspect teams that are favorites after they cover a few games as dogs or other weak teams. 

College is filled with teams that over and under achieve.  Outside of the top 15 teams can be difficult and inconsistent. 

Just a few words wish you success. 

after week 3 the schedules become much  more favorable for what I do 

Its hard to bet over on Mia Oh but its Notre dame and this line is low.  The under value is gone but I am concerned about MOH's offensive output.  A few beneficial mistakes that Notre Dame can create and 43 points can get home.  

Naturally, my favorite pick of the week is the first one you dislike. I've been monitoring the line movement on WSU and it's down to -11. SJSU is 3-0, but this looks like a big step up in competition for a team that has been outrushed by over 200 yards to Sac St, Air Force and Kennesaw St. WSU should be able to control the lines. I'll maybe scale my bet back now. 

Wash st and the like just don’t excite me about laying this many points.  

dogs I love them but only against certain teams and situations.  

sj st isn’t great but this could possible be an opportunity and wash st what’s the motivation here to kill ?  

if wash st covers it will be because San Jose sucks that bad which certainly could happen. 

it’s not my favorite play of the week so we will see what the line is by Saturday.  

thanks for stopping in 

@westlake888

have a good week west lake 

Wash st previous game was highly motivated again in state rival UW 

next week vs. Boise.  It’s a be careful spot here.  You don’t have to play SJST but I would lay the points in a dead scheduling situation. 

Yes I am in Illinois +9.5 but I hate the fact that they are well liked by many.  

my data loves them so I hope for the best.  Besides last week was a lot of favorites prime time weekday game.  We will see. 

More spots/ teams to be concerned for 

F and p:D and pp:D and po:rank <= 25 and ppo:rank <= 25 and rank = None and line>-8 and season>2015 and PRSW>5

10-23 ATS

Tulane and Utah St. 

team off of facing back to back top 25 games as dogs now a favorite.  

They have no momentum losing at least 2 in a row. They just played 2 elite teams so they could be beat up.  Watch for injuries and bumps and bruises. 

Hard to get up for some teams and if they are road teams no home crowd energy.  

It’s hard to think of fading Tulane but it appears to be a flat spot.  Small line also looks juicy.  Might not be so good 

p:AF and AD and week>3 and week<8 and line<27 and o:rank>4 and o:PRSW>8

Dog with a line less than 27.  The dogs last game was an away favorite (loss not included in the results as the ROI is better but its less games).

week>3 and less than <8 the opponent Missouri is ranked not in the top 4 teams.  Missouri also won more than 8 games last season.

27-8-1 (77.1%)

play on Vandy +20.5 

Illinois now 7.5 at some books.  It looked like they were popular.  

@spottie2935

 Amazing work. It’s quite hard to see which teams you have as plays and which are fades, particularly at the top of this thread. Will you be listing your plays eventually?

cheers and BOL

@R1729amanujan

 Yes I will have a list 

Here's to a bounce back week for us both Slayer 

Purd 

Some of these I have placed some of them I’m waiting.  It doesn’t matter my line or yours it’s your money, bet what you think. 

Illinois +9.5

San Jose St +12

NC St.+20.5

Rice +5.5

UL Laf +3 

Temple +6.5

Michigan +6.5

Texas Tech -3  asu covers last week as a dog to Texas st now a small dog here?  I don’t understand so I’ll play it. 

Kent St. +49.5 

Navy +9.5

Duke -14.5 

Vandy +21

SMU +3 

South Florida +16.5 

Tulsa +3.5

Georgia So.+36

Michigan St. +6.5 

Purdue +4.5

LA Monroe +44.5

Hawaii -8 

over 43 Notre Dame

unders: 

LSU 56.5

U Conn 46.5

J'Ville St.  60

if I had to name my bests: 

Oklahoma 

NC st. 

Vandy

Mich State