Week 4 Bounce back week

I need to keep better records so I could provide my winning percent. I would guess around 55% the last 5 seasons.  With a lot of picks I think it’s good enough. 

I could limit the plays but I love the madness of several game going at once.  

be selective on yours.  Find out if anyone else agrees with any of mine of if you agree that’s great.  

later in the week I will look into the public and non public teams.  I don’t like being too public. I’m sure not a lot will be.  

Go get those chips again this week Spottie! 

@PRIMETIMEE21

@spottie2935

 Good advice. I’m 3-0 on the year, but missing out on the madness is killing me. Hopefully limiting the plays will lead to a profitable year for me. I enjoy reading these posts. 

@joejoe41189

Simple look ahead games make current week solid bets. 

what  if a dog will be an away favorite next week?  This gives credibility to our dog.  

same as the opposite. What if a favorite will be a home dog next week? 
2 scenarios take place in this place:

1} our favorite has a big game on deck, it’s most often a look ahead game. 

2} our favorite is not elite and not quite as strong as the line appears.  

next week away favorites creates credibility to this weeks lines 

Next week home dogs discredits current weeks favorites.  

finding excellence one should be looking for next weeks credibility and future lines.  

so the text is : 

F and n:HD 

means any current week favorite (F) that will be a Home Dog (HD) next week  (n:) 

all games in the data bank 

1068-1489-60 41.8 % ATS 

just using this alone will net a bettor close to 59%

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The opposite of this would be a dog (D) next as an away favorite. 

D and n:AF 

1213-989-49 (55.1%) ATS 

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We don’t want to bet teams that will be dogs every game or in consecutive weeks.  These teams have less power.  

we also don’t want to bet against teams that will be favorites every week unless (Such as Tennessee this week ) they have covered against the weather teams and taking a step up in competition and yet still favored.  

Tennessee biggest competition so far was NC St at home and that line was -14 now -7 on the road to a much more (year over year) respectable team in Oklahoma. 

the premise still exists this Oklahoma game is the exception to the rule. 

Seriously wicked stats here Spottie....makes you want to bang your head for digging into so many games when you can look in here.....well, shoulda just put this on and waited till you posted:

Was 18 when this came out, think it was 1983....wicked when we first heard it and Friday the 13th had come out I think the year before 

@Last2thirst

 awesome tune and i was 13 in 1983

@DrStrangelove

 Im happy to know you like those teams 

Its week 4 lets gooooooo

Its time!

@spottie2935

That's a lot of hard work you put in brother!  Much appreciated.  Still looking over stuff but the one game I've zeroed in on is Navy +10.  Midshipmen are off a bye, facing a Memphis team on the road for a second straight week and off a HUGE win at Florida St.  Navy almost got em a year ago losing by four as an 11' point dog.

Good luck Spottie.  

@Boisestateand8

@D-Town

Thx for reply, sounds good to me on the logic.
Love reading your info 

@buceye9

@spottie2935

 I know your angle sez play against Army, but after watching Rice get shredded on the ground at Houston last Saturday, I'm having trouble believing the Black Knights won't run through that defense like a hot knife through butter.  Thoughts?

Last week

Rice

@ Houston -3.5 

This week:

Rice 

@ Army -5.5

Next week :

Charlotte 

@ Rice -7.5 according to massey future lines prediction.  I understand that Houston thrashed them but this line is more points this week. Army can run as good or better than Houston, but Army (for the most part) is 1 dimensional.  This week I value Rice because of next weeks TD  favorite line and the fact that they are getting more points than they did against Houston last week.  

My strength is not breaking down previous weeks yardage and such.  Especially Teams like Army that play a certain way consistently.  Of course they can have talent fluctuations, but their play is on point each week.

I do dig into lines and situations very well and do my best to pinpoint and expose probable favorable lines.

So far this season Rice has had some terrible luck with covering bad lines.  

In week  1 they were home to Sam Houston that line was -9.5.  

SAsm Hou 

@ Rice -9.5

Rice got crushed 14-34  Sam Hou is pretty darn good against their equal competition levels. 

Rice then played an FCS team  with a -30 line after that ,and destroyed them.  Then played Houston +3.5 terrible line again.  So it appears that they cant play and the stats confirm their lack of ability, but on the field play I feel will be different this week.

Houston had a punt return TD and also A long TD catch and run.  I feel this week Army wont get those easy 14 points.  

Rice passed for 227 yards against Sam Houston.  I could go on and on about past on the field data. Dont exactly know how this will play out , Field position,  penalties,  turnovers. sacks, mistakes.  

What I do know is Army will gain yards as they have and the line is better than their previous 2 FBS games this season and next week I value them for being a home favorite to Charlotte.

There appears from their 2 FBS games Rice looks to have a lot of concerns but the book is adjusting the lines and in my opinion the Army team is more equal competition for them. 

Rice is not in my top list but they surely qualify here.  

Hope that helps and best wishes on yours this week. 

mistake ***

What I do know is Army( I mean ***Rice) will gain yards as they have and the line is better than their previous 2 FBS games this season and next week I value them for being a home favorite to Charlotte.

A few more thoughts on this weeks lines.  Make sense of Hou -3.5 to Rice last week and now going on the road to Cincy and only getting 3.5.  Playing Oklahoma to a 4 point loss getting +27.

Last season Army got shutout 2 x (sure one was against LSU) the other was TROY. Sure Troy is good.  Army also played Holy Cross 17-14.  Now I dont know Holy Cross at all but the line was <-10. 

Dating back to last season Army has covered 4 in a row.  So that will have a slight impact on the line and I think +6 is showing it. 

@DrStrangelove

im watching you kick it!  Let’s go! 

@DrDru

 Thank you for the shake.  I appreciate your support of my efforts 

@spottie2935

 Yeah, Army's one dimensional attack will probably keep me away, but Rice better score some because they haven't shown me they can stop a nose bleed.

@Boisestateand8