Army's ground and pound kills the clock and they dont score enough to create the seperation they need to cover as favorites against other FBS's squads.
Army line data: site is not Neutral and favorite >-7 against FBS teams
Army is 10-20 ATS in these situations. It going to come down to mistakes and if they can cash in and score on big runs and their opportunities.
t:team = ARMY and F and line > -7 and site != neutral and o:division = FBS
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
0
Army's ground and pound kills the clock and they dont score enough to create the seperation they need to cover as favorites against other FBS's squads.
Army line data: site is not Neutral and favorite >-7 against FBS teams
Army is 10-20 ATS in these situations. It going to come down to mistakes and if they can cash in and score on big runs and their opportunities.
t:team = ARMY and F and line > -7 and site != neutral and o:division = FBS
division = FBS and D and p:FL and p:day != Saturday and line <= 17 and 9 > week > 1 and o:PRSW < 11 and t:wins > 0
an FBS dog team that was a favorite in its last game, Lost that game, and that last game play was NOT played on A on Saturday.
The rest of it just cuts into a better ROI.
These teams this week are Kansas and SMU. Dogs in this situation are 27-7 ATS.
No confidence in these teams as they were most likely on TV and they lost as favorites. Either bettors run away from playing the game or they fade and overreact to what they saw.
Now they are dogs and have no line to jump over they just have to keep it tight. In this game keep it tight or barely win.
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
0
division = FBS and D and p:FL and p:day != Saturday and line <= 17 and 9 > week > 1 and o:PRSW < 11 and t:wins > 0
an FBS dog team that was a favorite in its last game, Lost that game, and that last game play was NOT played on A on Saturday.
The rest of it just cuts into a better ROI.
These teams this week are Kansas and SMU. Dogs in this situation are 27-7 ATS.
No confidence in these teams as they were most likely on TV and they lost as favorites. Either bettors run away from playing the game or they fade and overreact to what they saw.
Now they are dogs and have no line to jump over they just have to keep it tight. In this game keep it tight or barely win.
Final list of my plays this week: I have played some games that i do not list here. I have a long enough list. I am using current lines as of Wed Night
Friday I should be able to get a split:
Ill +8
San Jose +12
Saturday Bests listed on top:
Oklahoma + 7
NC St +20.5
Navy +9.5
Vandy +21
south Florida +17
SMU +3
Kansas +2.5
U of M +5
Mich St +6.5
Rice +6.5
Georgia So. +35
Tulsa +3
Lou. -Monroe +44.5
Hawaii -8 late night fun if I am on adrenaline. I may make a few changes but the major bets are in and listed from top to bottom.
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
0
Final list of my plays this week: I have played some games that i do not list here. I have a long enough list. I am using current lines as of Wed Night
Friday I should be able to get a split:
Ill +8
San Jose +12
Saturday Bests listed on top:
Oklahoma + 7
NC St +20.5
Navy +9.5
Vandy +21
south Florida +17
SMU +3
Kansas +2.5
U of M +5
Mich St +6.5
Rice +6.5
Georgia So. +35
Tulsa +3
Lou. -Monroe +44.5
Hawaii -8 late night fun if I am on adrenaline. I may make a few changes but the major bets are in and listed from top to bottom.
High profile teams kicked butt last week. Fact is historically, thats not a surprise. Also not a surprise is the case for regression in week 4. From weeks 4-12 is where I have the most success. A week 4 favorite that is 3-0 ATS are 51-69-3 ATS. Breaking these down: =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- If one of these teams lines are a big favorite of -10 or higher, and these teams are not in the top 25 and these teams did not win 8 regular season games last season. The results for these week 4 favorites are 7-17 ATS. Going a little further within this if these favorites won the game in their previous game as A dog they are 1-6 ATS. The qualifying team is Wash St. =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Any ranked favorite 3-0 ATS team is 17-32 ATS, within this if the line is from -1 to -13 the ranked favorite is 2-14 ats, Nebraska and Tennessee. =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Any ranked home favorite 3-0 ATS team are 9-22 ATS. Texas, Ole Miss, and Nebraska. =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Illinois vs. Nebraska is interesting because Illinois is also 3-0 ATS and is over 60% consensus on the in the king of covers contest. That poses A questionable situation as these public type teams I dont feel confident in. =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Any week 4 Away favorite with a line <=-5 or higher that is 3-0 ATS is 8-17 ATS, Tennessee, Miami FL, and Memphis. =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
Spottie, how did you write that? division=FBS and week=4 and F and day=Saturday and rank<=25 and wins=3 and ppp:ATSW and pp:ATSW and p:ATSW (70% go against)
on LMON, GSOU, OKLA, SFL
0
Quote Originally Posted by spottie2935:
High profile teams kicked butt last week. Fact is historically, thats not a surprise. Also not a surprise is the case for regression in week 4. From weeks 4-12 is where I have the most success. A week 4 favorite that is 3-0 ATS are 51-69-3 ATS. Breaking these down: =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- If one of these teams lines are a big favorite of -10 or higher, and these teams are not in the top 25 and these teams did not win 8 regular season games last season. The results for these week 4 favorites are 7-17 ATS. Going a little further within this if these favorites won the game in their previous game as A dog they are 1-6 ATS. The qualifying team is Wash St. =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Any ranked favorite 3-0 ATS team is 17-32 ATS, within this if the line is from -1 to -13 the ranked favorite is 2-14 ats, Nebraska and Tennessee. =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Any ranked home favorite 3-0 ATS team are 9-22 ATS. Texas, Ole Miss, and Nebraska. =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Illinois vs. Nebraska is interesting because Illinois is also 3-0 ATS and is over 60% consensus on the in the king of covers contest. That poses A questionable situation as these public type teams I dont feel confident in. =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Any week 4 Away favorite with a line <=-5 or higher that is 3-0 ATS is 8-17 ATS, Tennessee, Miami FL, and Memphis. =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
Spottie, how did you write that? division=FBS and week=4 and F and day=Saturday and rank<=25 and wins=3 and ppp:ATSW and pp:ATSW and p:ATSW (70% go against)
week < 10 and p:margin < -6 and rank = None and line <8 and p:line <= 14 and p:site != away and season > 2012 and o:PRSW > 3 and 3 > ats streak > -4 and p:points > 6 and PRSW < 9 and site!= home and D and ono:PRSW<5 and total<=58
17-3 ATS play is Purdue +4.5
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
0
week < 10 and p:margin < -6 and rank = None and line <8 and p:line <= 14 and p:site != away and season > 2012 and o:PRSW > 3 and 3 > ats streak > -4 and p:points > 6 and PRSW < 9 and site!= home and D and ono:PRSW<5 and total<=58
week < 10 and p:margin<-1 and rank = None and line <8 and p:line <= 14 and p:site != away and season>2012 and PRSW < 9 and site!= home and D and ono:PRSW<6 and total>45 and total<59
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
0
tweaked the last query to
44-14 ATS Play on Purdue
week < 10 and p:margin<-1 and rank = None and line <8 and p:line <= 14 and p:site != away and season>2012 and PRSW < 9 and site!= home and D and ono:PRSW<6 and total>45 and total<59
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interesting!!
plays @spottie2935
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