Week 4 Bounce back week

Good debate on the Vols-Sooner game....strong feelings for both teams for many

Heard a killer song this morning I haven't before by ACCEPT: Restless and Wild Pretty damn good especially on a packed highway and slowpokes on the road this morning

Thanks for the Purdue suggestion. I will use them in local parlays 

@Last2thirst

@Last2thirst

 My like for Purdue?  2 reasons

1) Oregon State took a big step back from previous seasons talent in my opinion. 

2) Purdue was a home dog to Notre Dame last week although they played a trash game the line was +8? well this is +4.5 and I think it opened at +6.5.  The book completely missed on their valuation last week and has reversed that valuation this week.  +4.5 here is good enough for me.

Tennessee is flying high but its their weak history and complete dominance against weak teams this season that I am taking a reverse on them.

Tenn on the road against a ranked home team ?  only 12 times in this situation.  Tenn does well at 11-1 in the 12 qualified games and 8-4 ATS. This is good for Tenn backers.

Taking a different direction though 

t:team=TEN and AF and season>2006 and o:PRSW>5

When they play any ranked team (unranked included)

 on the road and their opponent won more than 5 games the previous season. 

its 5-8 ATS.  

okay 5-8 isnt outstanding but the point is they have dont have a big elite history of being a road favorite. 

Tenn can cover and I will lose but they have to show me this season they are elite and belong here.  Their history shows they dont belong and their previous opponents this season prove nothing to me.  Yes the scores are elite so far, but now its a real team with an elite history. 

Oklahoma is a good/great home team.

Beavers can run with a high efficiency, unless of course they run into Line + Backers with 5 star talent/speed like Ducks had

Concerning Vols-Sooners....  consistency through 4 quarters is the most important factor (a function of line play + QB + play calling + ball hawking + not opening up the field too much and many more in game factors ....+ pedigree of players/ Unit/coach, road play, crowd etc)

Line is meant to attract action from VEGAS, nothing more. Vegas is scared to move the line from -7 to -6.5 for a good reason and we will find out that reason on Saturday . 80% of all bets are on Vols -7/-7.5 .... and then there is the TEASER to consider since many might use it to punch a big bet 

I cannot be convinced Sooners are better until they consistently show they are consistent. Consistency and talent have appeared for Vols in spades. If anything, 2 games I peered in (one I watched 2/3 of it), they demonstrated a joy to showcase their talent with speed and finding the ballcarrier or endzone on offense

Sooners have to kill that joy and develop some on offense. I don't think its a good matchup when looking at the data ....as well as the eye test

@Last2thirst

 it certainly is A clash 

@DrStrangelove

okay tonight SJ St

week = 4 and ats streak = 3 and site = away and D and o:ats streak>-1

week is =4 and away dog and the favorite has covered 3 in a row to begin the season. The dog had covered or pushed in their last game.   Basically A fade of a 3-0 ATS favorite in week 4 against a team that also covered their last game. 

20-4 ATS for the dog 

t:team=WAST and po:team=WAS and season>2015

WAZU is bad after a game with Washington  0-6 straight up and 1-5 ATS since 2015 

now all these games were Neutral site out of conference bowl games.  The point is hangover is present though. 

Colorado Baylor 

CU is in an interesting situation starting B12 play.  They have won only 2 conference games the last 18 attempts. 

All teams in a similar situation since 2003 are 42-17-2 ATS

S(W@team and conference=o:conference, N=18)<3 and HFC and line>-14 and season>2003

current season and (looking for the amount of wins within the last 18 interconference games played). The line is not as high as -14 point as our team is favored. and our team has less than 3 wins within these 18 games.  

42-17-2 ATS

play is CU at home against a small number.  The bottom line I was thinking here was scoring points.  CU has a lot of skill at QB and WR.  Yea I know they dont run and poorly strategically coached so there will be mistakes and penalties and all that, but teams that score 21 points as a small favorite or dog hit around 70%.  We all know scoring points is a huge success.  CU did it all last year and covered those big spreads.  I think A win here is over 60% probable.  They will lose against tougher teams.  

Next game on the road to CFLA  much more probable loss 

@spottie2935

 Does it concern you that this week is B.C.'s Red Bandana game?  They do seem to rise to the occasion in those games.  Not sure what their overall record is, but they damn near beat FSU a year ago as a 25 point dog!  Good luck on all your plays.  I'll be on a few of those myself.  I'm liking Michigan more and more, even with the line drop.  Also liking USF.  Seems like every year Mario Cristobal has that one game where he poops the bed. Maybe this will be that game.

Thanks for all the hard work you put into this spottie.

BOL on your plays 

@Boisestateand8

 I don’t like BC laying points.  Many people see they can handle dog games so people start trusting them when they see that they are favorites they get recognized. 

Bc and teams like them are much better bets in dog roles not after they have multiple covers in a row.  

I use data on situations and I look for upper medium type dogs after a few good games and bettors recognize them.  That’s the time to jump ship on them.  

my concern for BC this week is the weeks ahead when they will be favored against WKY and @Virg. Week ahead favorites are in good position to cover but most of the time after a few under performances.  

BC looks sharp but history has shown it’s false when laying points. 

@Coloneljim

Last year they were favored over UConn by 14 and failed and only - 5 to Virginia at home. 

they took advantage of FSU and their problems and Missouri I’m not sure they are on the level this season.  I’m not sold BC should be -7 here and I’m taking a chance on my systems to execute.  

We will see if Bill OB can cover when expected 

In this weeks case 

t:team = BCOL and F and season > 2017 and o:division = FBS and line<-3 and 8>o:PRSW>1

if their FBS opponent won more than 1 game and less than 8 games last season and are laying less than -3 mean -3 and higher they are 3-10 ATS since 2017 

they are historically failures and after covering against previously ranked teams this season have established trust.  

I am betting this is misleading. 

Thursday:

S Ala +7.5 -115

Friday:

Ill +8

Stanford +10 -130

San Jose +12

Saturday Bests listed on top:

Oklahoma + 7

NC St +20.5

Navy +9.5

Vandy +21

south Florida +17

Purdue +4.5

SMU +3 

Kansas +2.5

U of M +5

Temple +6.5

Mich St +6.5

Rice +6.5

Georgia So. +35

Tulsa +3

Lou. -Monroe +44.5

Hawaii -8 

@spottie2935

Well, I'm not playing that but I'll be rooting for you to hit it!  Just played Michigan at +4.  Let's cash some tickets!

@Boisestateand8

Good luck

SJST exposing WAZU D 

I love it

ya just never know what happens on the field. I guess SJ is motivated.