DK NFL AFC Championship: Chiefs vs Ravens

@umgmu

 Lions have a shot to shock everyone on Sunday......

Good luck DK.  

I added some more on -3.5 last night fell asleep to post

Ravens -3.5(+105)*small* 

-3(-120) now. gonna hang around for -110 possibly

@umgmu

me too got it way early. I did thought about hedging for a minute but I'll ride and die with it it's my last ride anyway super bowl or bust lol

@bonfire69

@D-Town

As a backer for Ravens on this game myself, it's encouraged to see your confidence on this game. However, I'm weary in one lengthy Lamar Jackson hyped thread trying to bolster his case in every angles, this kind of lengthy hyping thread does not help Ravens backers, I'm afraid, DK.      

Lol I have been an advocate for him for years now. It is inevitable that he wins a superbowl. It’s not a matter of if it is a matter of WHEN.  There’s no hype. There are many who base their opinions based on how someone looks or talks rather than how they play. I don’t care if you end up liking Lamar or not at the end of the day. I know no matter what I say people will still hate him, which is probably why he gets multiple rings, not just one. 

He has destroyed narrative about him. And his haters/doubters have been wrong about every single thing they have said about him. I have never seen anything like it in lifetime truthfully. I don’t think people see it or hear it like I do or I know Lamar does. But these people continue to be wrong about everything so what makes you think they are going to be right about him not winning a superbowl of all things? It’s a no brainer to me. I have maga friends who think Trump still won the election that think Lamar will never win it. These people are wrong about every fucking thing. Of course they are gonna eat crow on Lamar. 

Part I

I'm going with the assumption that the Chiefs receivers have finally fixed their drop issues and Mahomes is playing like Mahomes again. The offense has finally righted itself and we're getting the Chiefs offense at full strength. Although there is one injury news to keep an eye on with all pro LG Joe Thuney who got hurt with a pec injury. That would be a noticeable loss for the Chiefs pass-blocking protection if he doesn't play but Nick Allegretti is a decent backup. The Ravens defensive front has played against some good O-lines and were able to bring some pressure against teams like the Lions and Browns(early season) but those teams dont have Mahomes scrambling ability as he is one of the best at evading pass rushes to buy extra time. Ravens are really good at disguising their looks and simulating pressure while bringing pressure at the right moments. They don't rely heavily on blitzing unlike the Wink Martindale days which is basically useless against Mahomes. I can't think of many good defensive fronts that aren't blitz-reliant whom the Chiefs have played this season. The most recent ones were against the Raiders and Bills late in the regular season. All in all this will be a good test for both sides. 

(To be continued)

DK 

Joe Thuney is a huge loss for chiefs.

not sure they can handle Ravens DL without him

@Europa

 I don't like it either, but trying the best to filter out the noise. 

@Fuse

@TJZags598

  we'll see what the MRI says today. Wouldn't surprise me if he suits up unless it's a partial tear

I'll have an opinion on this game this weekend but I'll start with this, especially after watching Tyler Bass miss another critical FG in the history of the Buffalo Bills. His name is Justin Tucker and while he didn't have his best season he is still the greatest clutch kicker in the game, 26 of 27 in the last 2 minutes of the game, 17 of 17 in the last minute, 5 of 5 in OT and 7 game winning FGs with no time in regulation, no kicker has ever been better with money on the line than Justin Tucker. I'm amazed how rarely kickers are mentioned when discussing these likely close games, hardly ever. Of course when they miss, the whole world wants to crucify them. You can talk about Mahomes, Lamar and any other position player but in the end it's the kicker who ultimately could be the difference. Wonder how many critical kicks Adam Vinatieri made and games he won for the Patriots, ask Tom Brady, I'll bet he could tell you.

The Quiefs are going to destroy every bet..

Part II

If there is a defense that could pose problems to Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore offense, then it's the Chiefs defense. Ranked #2 in scoring defense and #2 in sacks only behind to the Ravens, this is without a doubt the best Chiefs defense in the Mahomes era. The difference between these two defenses is that the Chiefs get more of their pressure by blitzing aggressively. Steve Spagnoulo loves to dial up the blitz and is one of the best defensive coordinators in the league when it comes to situational blitzing. Lamar Jackson has struggled in the past against blitzes. Historically against the Chiefs he is 1-3 overall but 1-2 against Spag's defense with a 56.7% completion rate; 603 pass yds; 2 TDs; 2 INTs and 1 lost fumble. The only other defense that has given Lamar more trouble is the Steelers defense. What do they have in common? Both teams like to blitz. It is fair to say that Lamar Jackson has fared noticeably better against the blitz this season, with the last game against the Texans in the 2nd half as an example. However, the Chiefs have a much better secondary than the Texans so it still won't be easy sledding through the air. It will be interesting to see if Lamar can build on from that last game and improve against a better defensive unit. This will be Lamar's toughest test yet. 

(to be continued)

@mrusso

 agreed here Tucker has been money for nearly all of his career although its a bit concerning that he has made just 1 of 5 from 50+ this season defintely one of his off years. one of them was a potential game winner against the colts that they ended up losing in OT. other than that he's still automa-tuck from anywhere else . still would have him as my kicker with game on the line. going to be another good battle with Tucker and Butker. i'm sure both will be kicking a few field goals on sunday. both teams have good special teams

@movinlinesG

 nice nickname quiefs 

@Digitalkarma

 So the media is asking the question, will Taylor Swift be able to make it to the Super Bowl after a show in Japan. Bulletin board material ? 

@Digitalkarma

 Lol ty bro

@Digitalkarma

 Bol 

Part III

The gameplan for the Ravens will most likely focus on the Chiefs run defense which is allowing 4.5 ypc. Josh Allen and James Cook had success running the ball last game. The Ravens offense has been more efficient running the ball with Lamar Jackson, Gus Edwards and Justice Hill. Run the ball and use a quicker passing game to anticipate the heavy blitzes sure to come their way. Control the clock and make it a possession game to keep Mahomes on the sideline for as long as possible. Ravens average time per drive is 19th so thats something they'll need to re-consider working on. Lastly and most importantly, finish drives with touchdowns. Ravens offense has improved immensely in the redzone compared to a season ago when they were ranked 30th but now they are 2nd in RZ scoring and also have the 2nd most redzone attempts. There should be a handful of opportunities for the Ravens to get into the redzone just like the Bills in the last round where they scored in 3 out of 4 redzone drives. It's no coincidence that a majority of Chiefs losses this season were against good redzone offenses and teams that could run the ball: Lions, Bills, Eagles, Packers.. they were able to have success. The Chiefs #8 ranked redzone defense is a byproduct of playing offensively challenged teams with Zach Wilson, Bailey Zappe to name a few. 

(to be continued)

@GamzOver

 hmm indeed 

@kidd22

Lamar is a threat to score on every play and the greatest dual threat QB I’ve ever seen and this year, with him keeping his eyes downfield while scrambling he is better than ever before.  Make no mistake about it he is not entitled to win a Super Bowl as many here have insinuated.  

Regardless of Mahomes taking the Chiefs to 6 straight title games, come back from behind wins that doubles any other QB that has ever played, have 2 to 3 wow wtf plays every game, he is always doubted andhad MVP’s given to much lesser players.  The Chiefs may lose this weekend, it is the best year for the Ravens to get him but to be honest it was the best time every other year as well.  He would just figure out a way to win regardless of personal, weather, injuries, wasted time outs, etc.  He usually finds a way to win so don’t be surprised if he does it again  

I agree DK Ravens win and by double digits.

You won't be sweating this out at the end of the game.

Mahomes is incredible, unbelievable player but the Ravens beat Brady twice by double digits in the playoffs.

Ravens are the type of team can give problems to these all-time great QB's.

They have the players on defense to do it.

Part IV

The Chiefs are in a similar position here going up against a stingy defense in the Ravens. Yet perhaps they too can get their offense started by running the ball with Isiah Pacheco against a Ravens defense that has allowed 4.5 ypc as well. Ravens aren't used to seeing a hard runner like Pacheco so it will be interesting to see how they will try to contain him. Defending tight ends used to be a weakness for the Ravens but they have done much better covering them this year. With Roquan Smith and Kyle Hamilton patrolling the middle they'll be assigned the task of defending Travis Kelce. When it gets down to the redzone, the Ravens have the 2nd best redzone defense. Ravens have played against some top redzone offenses and done a decent job defending against the likes of the Lions, 49ers, Rams, Dolphins. Against a good redzone offense Ravens have won and lost their fair share of battles. Unfortunately for the Chiefs offense, they have seen their struggles in the redzone where they rank 17th this season but shockingly haven't faced many top 10 redzone defenses. Jets, Pats and Packers have been their toughest. Chargers and Vikings round up the top 15. That's a bit eye opening to me

(To be continued)

Good thoughts here. I wouldn't be surprised either but this is definitely the Ravens best chance. Hope it's a clean , hard fought game decided by talent and teamwork