DK NFL Divisional Matchup: Texans vs Ravens

I guess it is fitting that the Ravens once again host the Texans to start their playoff season just as they did to start off the regular season. Much has changed in 19 weeks for both teams. In the first meeting CJ Stroud got roughed up a bit by the Ravens defense and while he didn't have a great outing, it wasn't terrible by any means. Although he didn't have any touchdown passes to show for it, Stroud put in a promising effort despite the circumstances of being on a rebuilding team that wasn't even projected to make the playoffs. One thing that is clear from the outset, Stroud had built a rapport with Nico Collins by the end of the game to eventually become his favorite and most explosive target to this day.

The Ravens fresh off a past season full of doubt and uncertainty surrounding their star quarterback Lamar Jackson were finally able to come together to the bargaining table to keep Lamar in Baltimore. Although Ravens had some injury hiccups early on during the season, they were able to overcome the injuries for the most part and keep their roster mostly intact. Ravens didn't have Mark Andrews or Marlon Humphrey available against the Texans in week 1. The Ravens were able to get by against the Texans with strong running and solid defense. Lamar did not look like an MVP candidate from the start and was still in search for an offensive identity under a new offensive coordinator. Ravens retooled their recieving group and it looks to have shown some improvement as the season goes by. Defensively, the Ravens have built on the foundation set in stone last season after acquiring Roquan Smith and drafting Kyle Hamilton all but shoring up their weaknesses at linebacker and safety.

The game flow and early verdict

Texans offense might have a little more success running the ball this time. If there is a small chinkk in the Ravens armor its they're allowing 4.5 ypc on the ground which could set CJ up better in the passing game. I find it hard to believe the Ravens defense will shut out Stroud again with no touchdown passes. It wouldn't surprise me if he throws 1 to 2 TD passes max in this game but i also think he will throw a costly interception if Texans are behind late and chasing. The Ravens defense has evolved since that week 1 matchup into an elite ball-hawking unit. Texans defense gave Lamar some heat versus Ravens offensive line in the earlier meeting and they too have grown since that game. We have a Texans defensive unit that is middle of the pack but certainly could be a top 10 unit next season with a decent pass rush, stout run defense and bend but do not break redzone defense that is better than average. Texans defense is not on Ravens level yet especially in the secondary but I think they will give Lamar a bit of trouble again. However I also believe Lamar and Ravens offense will put up a better performance than week 1. Ravens offensive line has improved over time but health of Ronnie Stanley is still a concern. His ankle still hasn't been quite right since surgery. Stanley has his ups and downs in pass protection certainly his best days are behind him. We'll see if the two weeks off will do wonders for him. The O-line protection will be crucial for the Ravens in this match. If Texans pass rush can manage to find a way to wreck it, then it'll be a long day for Lamar Jackson. 

In summary, I believe the Texans can make it a game. I think the Ravens will come off a little bit rusty and certainly there will be some anxiety due to the past but eventually the Ravens settle down and finish it for four quarters. I got the Ravens winning by 7 in this game. 

Texans +9.5

@Digitalkarma

Good luck, DK!  

Completely agree .. it’s just too many points. Ravens and Lamar have yet to prove themselves in the playoffs. Stroud is playing at such a high level. I think our defense will be fine it’s our offense that has to produce. 

On it as well DK!    

100% agree.. Baltimore is very good but 9.5 seems like too many points against a quarterback in CJ Stroud that doesn’t turn the ball over much.. the one thing that does concern me is the Texans run game.. the defense is underrated in my opinion..

Good Luck DK

@Europa

 Thank you GL euro

@WilliamMunny

 Agreed. As a Raven homer that's tad too much pts. Trying to be realistic as well so im willing to fade my own team. I hope they can still advance 

@longhornswin

@ChOmP

 Glad to see we share the same sentiment 

Ravens have been known to be a great BYE team under Harbaugh early in his tenure but with Lamar Jackson?

5-2 SU but 1-6 ATS since 2018 

Included the playoff loss to Titans in that trend.....

They certainly earned that value then to the point that it's been overvalued for awhile now. usually chalked at -7.5 or more, some were double digits lines. Think all those games were at home if I'm not mistaken

DK I like the ml 

don't blame you for liking it based on ravens past playoff struggles. personally for me i just cant do it. doesnt mean i haven't taken the other teams ml a few times in the past before but  thats only in the regular season. spread will be as far as i will go lol...

I am leaning more heavy towards the under in this game.  Texans defense is a lot better and under the radar than most people think.  Big reason they have been able to stay in close games.  CJ is a stud.  Love the future of him but it's the Texans defense that is carrying the team.  On the flip side its also Ravens defense that is amazing.  See a lot of running and a lot of good defense in this game.  Hard to take a side here for me.

Good luck DK.  

@backdooor_cover

 Forecast is going to be 25 degrees with some wind-chill , 15 mph winds. Those conditions are usually Unders for Ravens plus indoor team going out to the cold another disadvantage 

Might be the coldest game Lamar will play in

@D-Town

  GL D

Nice input DK. GL 

@Fuse

 Thank you bro GL 

Kinnnnnnd of agree....I'm over 80% posting on Ravens this year lol.  I do think it might be a bit too many points but I also see the Texans getting smashed.  I'm going to plow into the UNDER here, probably against public sentiment.  

@LAGameofInches

 I'm 13-4 picking ats sides in Ravens games identical record to team . Faded them with Colts/didn't cover with Rams. Two losses to Steelers and one to Browns. Doing better than me LAG lol  

Yeah divisional rounds have been typical Overs but the cold winds could be a factor in it going Under. Ravens by at least 7-10 pts. GL this week 

@Digitalkarma

 The backdoor should be wide open in this game. A team like Houston getting more than a touchdown is dangerous because of how fast they can move down the field. If the ravens are up 14 late in the 4th and go into prevent (which seems to be the standard these days) CJ will march them down the field in 90 seconds or less to cover 

@brn2loslive2win

 Would not surprise me at all. Texans were able to drive it down in garbage time last game but couldn't connect. They'll probably get one in this time.

@joesap27

@Digitalkarma

A Play, GL

Week 1 Texans vs Baltimore first NFL for CJ he had one turnover pick 6. Lamar Jackson had 3 turnovers 2 picks and a fumble.

Ravens won but CJ is playing better than week one and the Defense is playing better than week 1.

 Week 1Final Score 9-25

Lamar Jackson playoff record (1-3)

2019 Ravens where the #1 seed and lost to Tennessee #6 seed

So Fresh off a buy (0-1) 

1st time in the playoffs for Lamar 2019

Love the Texans here myself

There's not going to be a repeat of 2019. Not with the defense leading the league in sacks and takeaways, having the 2nd best red zone defense and facing a dome team with a rookie QB.

The areas Cleveland was weak in (most giveaways, worst red zone though that didn't matter with all the big plays, and having an old, slow QB) are areas Baltimore is not only NOT weak in, but excel in. The Texans also will not have the luxury of being able to say 'last time they beat us we didn't have our QB'. Cleveland giving up those big plays was surprising since they are top 5 in yarde allowed per play but they for some reason didn't bring their defense on the road all season and it was missing again last week.

Now they have to face another team top 5 in yards allowed per play, the top team in fact tied with the Jets who also sack you and take the ball away. Stroud doesn't throw picks much but he did in their first game and he has fumbled 8 times luckily only lost 4. Of course, Lamar has always been turnover prone so a lot will hang on that this week.

I actually see this total opposite - this team will not allow a repeat of 2019, they will do like they have done to almost everyone they beat this year and win in blowout fashion. That Tennessee team was the only team who could run the ball like Baltimore. It was a classic Vrabel job of mucking the game up. Houston is fairly one dimensional and that's why they scored zero TDs vs the Ravens in Week 1 they couldn't run the ball effectively enough to sustain drives.

13 passing first downs, 1 rushing first down and 4 by penalty. 0 for 2 in the red zone.

And now it's going to be a lot colder than it was in September or then it was last week. Too early to really tell but it might be snowing Friday and a little windy on Saturday. Baltimore thrives in these conditions and 2019 is an outlier, no one ever enjoys going to that stadium to play. The other top seed that year also lost but in general the bye week is a huge advantage this time of year - that's why the oddsmakers have both top seeds as basically double digit favs despite their opponents winning in blowout fashion.

Having the top seeds both facing rookies on the road is going to be a goldmine for anyone who doesn't have 'last week's game syndrome.' Neither of those teams is going into the opposing stadium and winning. They are both facing much more physical teams who have blown most of their opponents out all year. Don't take the bait. It won't look generous when they can't sniff the end zone all game like last time and are getting gashed on the ground.