I liked Ravens coming off the bye.... until I started hearing about heavy rain and winds in the forecast. Lamar Jackson is a mixed bag in inclement weather in his career. From memory he is 3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS in rainy games. If we include wind in some of his games then he probably has a losing record.
Then upon further inspection Ravens are 12-3 SU, 9-6 ATS after the BYE overall under Harbaugh but since Lamar became quarterback 4-1 SU but just 1-4 ATS, with 4 of those ATS losses as faves. In 12 of those SU wins, 8 of those games were won by double digits. 2 were with Lamar but they didn't cover as 13.5 pt faves last year when they beat Panthers by 10. Overall, the value in picking Ravens after the BYE in recent seasons has decreased. With a 7.5 pt line hovering over the key number makes me think to take the Rams at this spot but still have to analyse the Rams side of things.
Sip on that plus money honey!
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I liked Ravens coming off the bye.... until I started hearing about heavy rain and winds in the forecast. Lamar Jackson is a mixed bag in inclement weather in his career. From memory he is 3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS in rainy games. If we include wind in some of his games then he probably has a losing record.
Then upon further inspection Ravens are 12-3 SU, 9-6 ATS after the BYE overall under Harbaugh but since Lamar became quarterback 4-1 SU but just 1-4 ATS, with 4 of those ATS losses as faves. In 12 of those SU wins, 8 of those games were won by double digits. 2 were with Lamar but they didn't cover as 13.5 pt faves last year when they beat Panthers by 10. Overall, the value in picking Ravens after the BYE in recent seasons has decreased. With a 7.5 pt line hovering over the key number makes me think to take the Rams at this spot but still have to analyse the Rams side of things.
If weather conditions shall be a factor in this one then this will be just as tough an outing for Matthew Stafford as well who isn't used to playing in ugly conditions and mostly confined to the comforts of the dome throughout his career. I can't quite remember how many games Stafford had played in rain or rain+wind as a visitor but do remember a couple games in the past with the Lions where he lost in them by sizeable margin. Maybe Lions fans can chime in here.
Rams are also more reliant on the pass than the Ravens are. I doubt the Rams will pass less even in stormy conditions, may be force to pass more if falling behind. They run a lot of 11 personnel with Nacua, Atwell and Kupp as they should but Ravens defense should match up well against them with their secondary. Stafford will have one less receiving option with Higbee doubtful to play. Stafford will eat up against zone but Ravens play higher than average percentage in man coverage. Stafford doesn't have that big bodied receiver like Megatron to beat 1 on 1 coverage. Rams offense may get predictable here. Handoffs or check down to Kyren Williams, or take his shot to one of his 3 receivers. If the Ravens manage to contain Kyren Williams, then good chance of numerous stalled drive for Rams.
Be back with the verdict.
Sip on that plus money honey!
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2nd take
If weather conditions shall be a factor in this one then this will be just as tough an outing for Matthew Stafford as well who isn't used to playing in ugly conditions and mostly confined to the comforts of the dome throughout his career. I can't quite remember how many games Stafford had played in rain or rain+wind as a visitor but do remember a couple games in the past with the Lions where he lost in them by sizeable margin. Maybe Lions fans can chime in here.
Rams are also more reliant on the pass than the Ravens are. I doubt the Rams will pass less even in stormy conditions, may be force to pass more if falling behind. They run a lot of 11 personnel with Nacua, Atwell and Kupp as they should but Ravens defense should match up well against them with their secondary. Stafford will have one less receiving option with Higbee doubtful to play. Stafford will eat up against zone but Ravens play higher than average percentage in man coverage. Stafford doesn't have that big bodied receiver like Megatron to beat 1 on 1 coverage. Rams offense may get predictable here. Handoffs or check down to Kyren Williams, or take his shot to one of his 3 receivers. If the Ravens manage to contain Kyren Williams, then good chance of numerous stalled drive for Rams.
i liked the under before the bad weather forecast, still kinda like the under even after the drop, feel like the ravens will chew up a ton of clock running the ball
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i liked the under before the bad weather forecast, still kinda like the under even after the drop, feel like the ravens will chew up a ton of clock running the ball
It's going to be a slippy, sloppy game or vice versa.. There will be a turnover or two, or three.. from both sides , but perhaps only one offense may have a chance to be gifted with a shorter field. I think Ravens will end up on the plus side of the turnover battle with their more opportunistic defense. Stafford is due for another pick six to opposing safeties, he is good for three of those per year...
While I think Ravens offense might not have their best showing in these weather conditions, Lamar Jackson should be able to do enough to move the chains with some timely passes against Rams zone D and get a couple touchdowns. Ravens redzone efficiency has been a huge improvement this year, although remains to be seen how much of a drop off it will be without Mark Andrews. Rams have also allowed the 2nd most rushing TD to quarterbacks.
Last but not least, I do not trust the Rams kicking game. Would not surprise me if Brett Maher misses a field goal and Rams will either punt or take their chances on 4th down. If I had to guess Sean McVay will probably play it conservatively. Justin Tucker is still capable of kicking field goals in rain.
Ravens will do just enough with their running game, defense and special teams to get the win and eke out a close cover. Don't see them pulling out all the stops here as there is a more important AFC matchup on deck against the Jaguars on the road. My predicted final score: 24-14, Ravens.
Ravens -7.5
Sip on that plus money honey!
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Final thought
It's going to be a slippy, sloppy game or vice versa.. There will be a turnover or two, or three.. from both sides , but perhaps only one offense may have a chance to be gifted with a shorter field. I think Ravens will end up on the plus side of the turnover battle with their more opportunistic defense. Stafford is due for another pick six to opposing safeties, he is good for three of those per year...
While I think Ravens offense might not have their best showing in these weather conditions, Lamar Jackson should be able to do enough to move the chains with some timely passes against Rams zone D and get a couple touchdowns. Ravens redzone efficiency has been a huge improvement this year, although remains to be seen how much of a drop off it will be without Mark Andrews. Rams have also allowed the 2nd most rushing TD to quarterbacks.
Last but not least, I do not trust the Rams kicking game. Would not surprise me if Brett Maher misses a field goal and Rams will either punt or take their chances on 4th down. If I had to guess Sean McVay will probably play it conservatively. Justin Tucker is still capable of kicking field goals in rain.
Ravens will do just enough with their running game, defense and special teams to get the win and eke out a close cover. Don't see them pulling out all the stops here as there is a more important AFC matchup on deck against the Jaguars on the road. My predicted final score: 24-14, Ravens.
Baltimore is a show off team when playing in their house. They play for their home fans. Wams may not score enough as I'm smelling an under game. Baltimore to do all the scoring to cover that spread.
I like your play dk.
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Wams not that great playing away.
Baltimore is a show off team when playing in their house. They play for their home fans. Wams may not score enough as I'm smelling an under game. Baltimore to do all the scoring to cover that spread.
Tough game! As I’ve said before NFL needs to knock this s—t off with west coast teams playing east coast teams at 10 their time!!! Especially in December!!! Not fair to warm weather rams team! Unfair advantage to ravens
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Tough game! As I’ve said before NFL needs to knock this s—t off with west coast teams playing east coast teams at 10 their time!!! Especially in December!!! Not fair to warm weather rams team! Unfair advantage to ravens
Was liking the Rams as well initially, but I backed off primarily based off Harbaugh's record after byes.
It's actually been proven that in general, you should fade teams off byes. It's a myth that teams do better after them.
However, there are some teams that have great coaches that do well after a bye. Andy Reid is obviously one of them, and I guess John Harbaugh is another.
Don't buy into the Rams scoring a ton of points the last couple of games. One was against the Cardinals, who let them run all over them. Last week that was a 20-19 game with like 4 mins left. A Flacco pick and a forced 4th down deep in their own territory let the score get out of hand. It was a 13-10 game at the half, cuz of a late FG.
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Was liking the Rams as well initially, but I backed off primarily based off Harbaugh's record after byes.
It's actually been proven that in general, you should fade teams off byes. It's a myth that teams do better after them.
However, there are some teams that have great coaches that do well after a bye. Andy Reid is obviously one of them, and I guess John Harbaugh is another.
Don't buy into the Rams scoring a ton of points the last couple of games. One was against the Cardinals, who let them run all over them. Last week that was a 20-19 game with like 4 mins left. A Flacco pick and a forced 4th down deep in their own territory let the score get out of hand. It was a 13-10 game at the half, cuz of a late FG.
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