Dolphins vs Bills Snow game

1 to 3 inches of snow Is predicted Saturday night with 15mph winds.This sets up a lean towards under 42.5 and Dolphins +7.5 parlay.

Nice to have Saturday games...

@Gspks1

 Forsure

So it's going to be cold, snowing, and relatively windy. Not sure how that's going to help Miami keep it close... unless Ricky Williams is playing

@BarbaricSoul233

 Not so sure. Dolphins whole offense is predicated on precision and timing route in the soft part of the defense. Not so sure both snow and some wind don't throw a wrench into that scenario. And then you have Tua coming off his worst game this season with Waddle getting shut out. Not sure if something is off in regular conditions.... Then you get a short week coming off California weather/time zone into sub freezing temperatures, with Tua never having played in under 0C weather (32F), and Tyreek hobbled a little and Jeff Wilson possibly not playing. And then you have a revenge situation coming off Bills horrible loss in Miami in September where they blew the game... Don't forget the Bills secondary is one of the few that actually held Tua in check when they played the 1st time - the loss was completely on f*king execution up.

I really fail to see how this sets up well for Miami... at all really. Actually contemplating Buffalo -7.5 straight up but the hook has me waiting for now.

Because it doesn't Magix... It'll help the UNDER but Miami third week in a row on the road after losing the first 2, now a short week in Buffalo's elements.

All the sudden they can't score much. Charger defense is pitiful and they Miami couldn't break 20. Tease Buffalo down to 1.5 and find another play.

Buffalo is not losing this game, they're built for this.

@Killer_B

 Yeah perhaps the under. I was more responding to the +7.5 part. I've already teased this game a decent 3 unit size (BUF +1.5, ATL/NO o49), but I could see the under as well. Also BUF a good moneyline teaser option with another pair, but perhaps the 7.5 straight up is the best way to go here. And yes, agreed Buffalo is better built for possession ball offense play if conditions get rough - especially with Jeff Wilson in question and Allen's ability to run. Hopefully, Allen's ability to f*ck up in key spot at times doesn't make an appearance as well...

Edit: Sorry read too fast. OP was suggesting a parlay and I was thinking teaser. Yup, not a bad way to go as well. I've been much more teaser active this year to swing lines in the direction where I have the strongest leans, and often didn't need the points anyway. Slow and steady this football season is getting me to where I need to go. Good luck! 

The other teaser team. Same theory, GB -1. Hate to wait, but Rams just want it over and they already won their game this month.

I love watching the genius at 4-9 and 1-4 on road, covering his mouth as if anyone would possibly care what he's saying. 

The Rams big road win was against the Cardinals, that doesn't count, Cardinals 1-11 in last 12 home games.

@mrusso

Heavy on the under.Both these teams know each others plays well.Add in the snow and both offenses kind of struggling.This game has 13-10 written all over it

What weather were you expecting? 65 degrees and calm? 1 to 3 inches is not bad.  15MPH is the minimum wind speed in Orchard Park so that is fantastic for the over.

@thorpe

 Did you see Tua and the Dolphins offense in perfect weather in LA last week?

@thorpe

 Gotta remember that Tua has a noodle arm by NFL standards - below average arm strength 100%. SO, I'd imagine there will be some sensitivity to a combo of factors (cold, wind, percipitation) that may hamper his ability to nail those normal intermediate/deep balls that he's been hitting all season. Each factor on its own is not extreme, but on the aggregate it adds up. And that's on top of something maybe being off to begin with. 

Doesn't mean Tyreek Hill can't still go for an 80 yard to with a simple swing pass in the flat, or that the Bills may struggle to score points with the offense very meh lately. Just means don't expect Tua to have one of those game where he rips off those second level throws with regularity, and this is negative to the line/over outlook. Just IMO.

After the Niners and Chargers dropped EVERYONE in coverage, only rushing 4, expect everyone else to do this to Miami. Until McDaniel adjusts himself. He's gotta run, and try to show the defense different looks.

@undermysac

 They took away the middle. For whatever reason Tua doesn't throw as accurately and confidently to the sidelines. I've seen every game, he's missed short passes there, passes you and I could make. And they tend to abandon the run game too quickly, only 8 carries vs the 49ers, that's ridiculous. Don't like the way this team looks right now and I suspect Buffalo is salivating over Saturday nights game.

@undermysac

 This plays into Leslie Frazier's system, which depends on the Front 4 rush and blitzes at one of the lowest rates in the league. 

@mrusso

Tua doesn't throw much to the sidelines because he has weak arm strength and its a longer throw, which increases the chance of pass breakup or interception. Very similar to the way Garoppolo plays, as I believe he lead the NFL in passes thrown to the middle of the field. 

@mrusso

 @MagixJohnson

Good to see you guys talking about football like this.

@Killer_B

 TB might be usable in 7 point teasers this week. They rarely lose home games by double digits 

hmmm looks like the weather in Orchard park is forecast to be worse then Buffalo.3-4 inches and steady snow

Bills will be ready to win this game. They NEED it to keep pace with KC for #1 Seed. They have Bengals in two weeks and Pats at the end but should be able to beat Miami. I have Bills ML in a parlay and -4 in another. Good luck. 

@mrusso

 This one could get ugly...I miss reading your writeups on the NFL. BOL