Posted:
#1
Hello friends,
It’s me again, your old super bowl buddy still alive and kicking. I’m
posting early because the weather in Miami looks good, Sunny, high 73.
.
There’s an old saying “Some people think football is a matter
of life and death, but I can assure, you, it’s more serious than that” ! I
live football, seen all 53 Superbowls since 1967. I watch every game. I dream
about it, I eat it ! When it’s over, I count the days until next year.
My Super bowl record on Covers is 15-3 over 18 years against the spread. I
think it’s because it’s on a neutral field and easier to figure. What works for
me, is taking the overview of the game. I could give you a thousand statistical
reasons why SF or KC can win. But, team statistics are misleading at this point, too many
injuries throughout the year.
As I mention every year, I look for experienced players and coaches. In
this game, the coaching experience is very close. Andy Reid against the Shanahan
family, Son and mentor father. Jimmy Garoppolo is a good quarterback...but
Patrick Mahomes is a phenomenal quarterback!
Early this month K.City was a 3 point favorite over either NFC winner GB or
SF. No surprise to me ! But after San Francisco blew out the Packers the odds
dropped to K.City –1. Why ? San Fran had already beaten GB by a score of 38-7 on
week-11. So that only confirmed that Green Bay, with a new coach and a weak
defense. A better comparison is the games between Seattle and San Francisco,
because Seattle and K.City have younger elusive quarterbacks and better
defense. Both of those division games were very close, down to the wire. In
game one, San Francisco had key injuries, in game two Seattle had key
injuries.
Kansas City-1 is a good value when you consider the amazing come back from
24-0 against Houston, scoring 51 points! Was that a fluke? Well okay, I’ll give
you that. But then K.City did it again down 17-7 against Tennessee, and scored
28 points to win 35-24. I’m sure it’s because he is very accurate on the run,
and defenses get tired of chasing him around late in the game. And remember last
year in the AFC championship game against the Patriots? Mahomes scored 24
points in the fourth quarter to tie the game. But didn’t get a chance to touch
the ball again, because in overtime Tom Brady scored a touchdown first.
In Superbowl 53 last year, I asked myself, which quarterback do I want with
only minutes to go? The more experienced Tom Brady or first time Jared Goff ?
Tom Brady of course.
Superbowl 54...obviously San Francisco has to design a keep-away strategy
from the explosive Mahomes. Can they do it for 4 quarters ? That will be very
difficult. So which quarterback do I want in the 4th quarter in a close game, or
down by 14 points? Garoppolo or Mahomes? Patrick Mahomes of course ! It’s not
complicated.
Therefore, my official Super Bowl 54 pick is Kansas City –
1
Good Luck all,.see you next year, God willing.
Don Juan
14
you are like fine wine. Best wishes for your continued success and see you next year...
damn... If SF win i get over $33K....
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