you have to take into consideration the publics perspective and if a team is percieved to be a favorite and vegas can hit them for the juice then why not bang them for -300 lol
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you have to take into consideration the publics perspective and if a team is percieved to be a favorite and vegas can hit them for the juice then why not bang them for -300 lol
How exactly do you know money moved the line? Do you truly believe
Vegas doesn't take a position in games?
Vegas definitely takes small positions in games here and there as one lines maker said for week 1 "I don't mind needing the Rams".
First real quick check out my post #394 and look at Tinklebell's quote: "most money is on Indy but odds have shifted to entice more Indy money. This means odds makers like the Jets"
Which was a response to the completely lopsided money in a prior post:
Colts 779K - Jets 299K with a line of 7.
So there are people here who think at this point Vegas and Offshore books all move the line to -6 to take a bigger position on the Jets than they already have?
Ask any linesmaker who has 2.6x more money on one side -7... what they do in that case?
First move is -7 -120, not take the line down to 6.
In short the Colts 779K - Jets 299K is not correct.
The line moves from respected cappers only laying down small 5 figure bets usually take place right after the NFL lines come out, early in the week, yes these guys move the line with a small amt of money BECAUSE that small amt of money usually indicates that there is more behind it - not a tip off to the oddsmakers to take a position on that side.
The pen is mightier than the pigs
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Quote Originally Posted by noles252:
How exactly do you know money moved the line? Do you truly believe
Vegas doesn't take a position in games?
Vegas definitely takes small positions in games here and there as one lines maker said for week 1 "I don't mind needing the Rams".
First real quick check out my post #394 and look at Tinklebell's quote: "most money is on Indy but odds have shifted to entice more Indy money. This means odds makers like the Jets"
Which was a response to the completely lopsided money in a prior post:
Colts 779K - Jets 299K with a line of 7.
So there are people here who think at this point Vegas and Offshore books all move the line to -6 to take a bigger position on the Jets than they already have?
Ask any linesmaker who has 2.6x more money on one side -7... what they do in that case?
First move is -7 -120, not take the line down to 6.
In short the Colts 779K - Jets 299K is not correct.
The line moves from respected cappers only laying down small 5 figure bets usually take place right after the NFL lines come out, early in the week, yes these guys move the line with a small amt of money BECAUSE that small amt of money usually indicates that there is more behind it - not a tip off to the oddsmakers to take a position on that side.
and stop with this unbelievably childish naivety . even if the numbers were right and the books were so eager to report to sbr and actually pay off a salary to the guy responsible for disclosing the privileged information for a public display - even then - do you really think that all the betting money is there accounted for and updated? what about the asian money which is a very dominant, what about the money's final destination - the vegas casinos and hotels, reno money, indian reservations money etc etc.
real info costs big deal of money and is accpounted with the 3-4 hours delays and i dont even want to discuss how it gets and through whom to the private sites that disclose the info.
stop eluding each other after being eluded
didn't want to discourage vorvan who began this because i respect people but this got to far
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read my thread's opening post on the first week.
and stop with this unbelievably childish naivety . even if the numbers were right and the books were so eager to report to sbr and actually pay off a salary to the guy responsible for disclosing the privileged information for a public display - even then - do you really think that all the betting money is there accounted for and updated? what about the asian money which is a very dominant, what about the money's final destination - the vegas casinos and hotels, reno money, indian reservations money etc etc.
real info costs big deal of money and is accpounted with the 3-4 hours delays and i dont even want to discuss how it gets and through whom to the private sites that disclose the info.
stop eluding each other after being eluded
didn't want to discourage vorvan who began this because i respect people but this got to far
lines do not move by themselves and if there were really a majority of money on the colts the line would not drop. it would go up. otherwise youre saying that the traders/oddsmakers are plain stupid seeing that there 3 times as much money on the colts and yet making it easier for the next bettors by reducing the difficulty level from -7 to -6?????
and if that is reverse line movement (rlm) then it is even worse inviting public to bet colts on whom supposedly is more money.
if you do not understand what i say - i still respect you and all that jazz - just quit betting and get a real job
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lines do not move by themselves and if there were really a majority of money on the colts the line would not drop. it would go up. otherwise youre saying that the traders/oddsmakers are plain stupid seeing that there 3 times as much money on the colts and yet making it easier for the next bettors by reducing the difficulty level from -7 to -6?????
and if that is reverse line movement (rlm) then it is even worse inviting public to bet colts on whom supposedly is more money.
if you do not understand what i say - i still respect you and all that jazz - just quit betting and get a real job
lines do not move by themselves and if there were really a majority of money on the colts the line would not drop. it would go up. otherwise youre saying that the traders/oddsmakers are plain stupid seeing that there 3 times as much money on the colts and yet making it easier for the next bettors by reducing the difficulty level from -7 to -6?????
and if that is reverse line movement (rlm) then it is even worse inviting public to bet colts on whom supposedly is more money.
if you do not understand what i say - i still respect you and all that jazz - just quit betting and get a real job
and all that jazz
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Quote Originally Posted by phixer:
lines do not move by themselves and if there were really a majority of money on the colts the line would not drop. it would go up. otherwise youre saying that the traders/oddsmakers are plain stupid seeing that there 3 times as much money on the colts and yet making it easier for the next bettors by reducing the difficulty level from -7 to -6?????
and if that is reverse line movement (rlm) then it is even worse inviting public to bet colts on whom supposedly is more money.
if you do not understand what i say - i still respect you and all that jazz - just quit betting and get a real job
and stop with this unbelievably childish naivety . even if the numbers were right and the books were so eager to report to sbr and actually pay off a salary to the guy responsible for disclosing the privileged information for a public display - even then - do you really think that all the betting money is there accounted for and updated? what about the asian money which is a very dominant, what about the money's final destination - the vegas casinos and hotels, reno money, indian reservations money etc etc.
real info costs big deal of money and is accpounted with the 3-4 hours delays and i dont even want to discuss how it gets and through whom to the private sites that disclose the info.
stop eluding each other after being eluded
didn't want to discourage vorvan who began this because i respect people but this got to far
bumped up first week thread so you can read the warning not to get fooled by those hideous consensuses
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Quote Originally Posted by phixer:
read my thread's opening post on the first week.
and stop with this unbelievably childish naivety . even if the numbers were right and the books were so eager to report to sbr and actually pay off a salary to the guy responsible for disclosing the privileged information for a public display - even then - do you really think that all the betting money is there accounted for and updated? what about the asian money which is a very dominant, what about the money's final destination - the vegas casinos and hotels, reno money, indian reservations money etc etc.
real info costs big deal of money and is accpounted with the 3-4 hours delays and i dont even want to discuss how it gets and through whom to the private sites that disclose the info.
stop eluding each other after being eluded
didn't want to discourage vorvan who began this because i respect people but this got to far
bumped up first week thread so you can read the warning not to get fooled by those hideous consensuses
Great call on the Jets Phixer, I am conceding the Jets will win this game and easily cover the spread. You Da Man. Great capping skills even from the psychological stand point you pointed out of the Colts not wanting to win and give max effort due their underpayment of their coach. Wow. That is why your thread is in high demand.
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Great call on the Jets Phixer, I am conceding the Jets will win this game and easily cover the spread. You Da Man. Great capping skills even from the psychological stand point you pointed out of the Colts not wanting to win and give max effort due their underpayment of their coach. Wow. That is why your thread is in high demand.
Phixer As always I think very highly of your skills but I think you agree a line is set to get the average player to bet a certain way having had the chance to work with an "office" in my younger days a line movement like today is designed to get most action on the chalk as they believe it has no chance to cash I could give many examples of this but the one that really stands out is broncos -2.5 against the seahawks in super bowl whatever I heard recently they finally got done counting the money as we both know this is their business and they are very very good at it that being said I look forward to your analysis on the rest of the season and wish you great health and good fortune in the future Go JETS !
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Phixer As always I think very highly of your skills but I think you agree a line is set to get the average player to bet a certain way having had the chance to work with an "office" in my younger days a line movement like today is designed to get most action on the chalk as they believe it has no chance to cash I could give many examples of this but the one that really stands out is broncos -2.5 against the seahawks in super bowl whatever I heard recently they finally got done counting the money as we both know this is their business and they are very very good at it that being said I look forward to your analysis on the rest of the season and wish you great health and good fortune in the future Go JETS !
sorry for being late but those who followed saw that the lines were released at 7, then were taken off the table and with the delay of 6 minutes were released again at 6.5
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sorry for being late but those who followed saw that the lines were released at 7, then were taken off the table and with the delay of 6 minutes were released again at 6.5
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