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don't get fooled again...week 1

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phixer

Banned

Joined: Jul, 2012

Posts: 4174

Posted: Sep. 10, 2015 - 9:15 PM ET #76

@black_hawk

@crashdavis565

@thegeneral01

@dertydude

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Hrmnd

Prospect

Joined: Mar, 2013

Posts: 129

Posted: Sep. 10, 2015 - 11:25 PM ET #77

Phixer can you please accept my friend request, I would like to ask you something in a pm.

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phixer

Banned

Joined: Jul, 2012

Posts: 4174

Posted: Sep. 11, 2015 - 10:20 AM ET #78

Quote Originally Posted by phixer:

NE Patriots vs PIT Steelers

I see this game develop a little differently than what I read everywhere in the press. I don't yhink NFL is a forgiving organization when there is a suspicion of cheating they aren't part of. Remember the Saints?

Another angle to my pick is the Big Ben physical health at the beginning of the season. It is always better than later because of the way he commits himself during the whole season.

I also get the great encouragement from the fact that despite the massive support the Patriots get from the public - the line remains the same with a little changes on odds making the Pat supporters to pay a little more for their bets (-120). By the info I get the 69% bets supporting the Pats ATS and 91% bets their money line while the money on ATS is divided evenly (!) and on ML 61% of the money is on Pats. Totals are also demonstrating great discrepancies between the number of the bets and the money. While the money is evenly divided - the bets on total are 67% of all the bets.

This is a 5 Units Play

PIT Steelers +7 +100 500$

that was a push

0-0-1 so far this season

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phixer

Banned

Joined: Jul, 2012

Posts: 4174

Posted: Sep. 11, 2015 - 10:44 AM ET #79

few very interesting observation i like to share with you regarding that opening game:

i was opting two more bets for that game and even prepared the drafts for them but then because of them partially contradicting each other - decided to not to go with them. nevertheless - i did follow closely to grade my own pregame thoughts with those after:

1. as i stated beforehand - the most of the money on this game (over 67% was on the totals and the number of how much was on over and how much was on under became apparent only after the game was over as for the reason i yet have top find out - the source i get my data from couldn't precisely produce the numbers). Looking at the numbers after the game which also include live betting numbers - the picture is as follows:

a. before the game 76% of the bets were on over 50.5. that number changed before the game into 51 fora brief moment and was back at 50.5 before the kick off. but the interesting thing is that the money wise it was 51.03% against 48.07% in favor of under. that is a way big delta between money and the bet amount and usually means some very big amounts of money came in from very few sources who apparently knew what are they doing.

b. after the scoreless 1st quarter when it became clear that the teams are dancing by the tune produced somewhere else than at their locker room -the under bets came to pile up.

c.under was one of the bets i considered heavily and also wrote the post but left it as a draft for a poetic reason of "wanting to enjoy watching the game". that was the last one for this season.

d. my other unpublished and highly "wondered" draft was regarding the decision to go with "over 20.5 team total for the steelers or with over 2.5 td for the steelers which paid almost twice as much than over 20.5 but in the mind of s simple and inexperienced handicapper m looks like "i caught the vegas with the pants down". that precise conclusion that if vegas wants us to think we caught them with their pants down it must not be kosher - that reason prevented me to go with over 2,5 td and once i smell fish -i stay away altogether. and i did although the over 20.5 would be a -120 winner.

so, after watching the game - seeing the first quarter where both teams made sure the do not score and then kicked the butts of all who tried to hedge the overs with ending up precisely at 49 point total also making sure that the spread bets pushed, counting the overall public against the vegas - we have a public winning ml bets most of which are parts of the parlays soon to be .... dealt with on the other sides of parlays, we have public loosing big in totals bets but money wise - vegas must have just saved their skin breaking even. but they took loads of live betting money on the totals and on the spreads when everyone was pounding the pats to destroy pathetically looking steelers who ....ooops... came in through with last second 7 points to complete the whole puzzle. barnum ringlig brothers can be jealous at the precision....

but some asian triads must have taken home loads of money and that is the way it works.

so, much enriched with the knowledge that nothing has changed compared to recent years - we are full of confidence we got them mf's who try to cheat us by the balls.

looking forward for this season