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DVOA Rankings of Super Bowl teams

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Legend
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Posted: #1
Year SB Winner (Ovr Rank) (Off) (Def) SB Loser (Ovr Rank) (Off) (Def)
89: SF  (1) (1) (5) ; DEN (4) (13) (4)
90: NYG (1) (7) (4) ; BUF (6) (1) (14)
91: WAS (1) (1) (3) ; BUF (4) (3) (16)
92: DAL (1) (2) (5) ; BUF (7) (6) (10)
93: DAL (1) (2) (18) ; BUF (12) (13) (8)
94: SF (3) (1) (7) ; SD (8) (6) (18)
95: DAL (2) (1) (13) ; PIT (4) (12) (4)
96: GB (1) (3) (1) ; NE (8) (14) (13)
97: DEN (2) (2) (8) ; GB (1) (4) (3)
98: DEN (1) (1) (20) ; ATL (7) (10) (5)
99: STL (1) (4) (3) ; TEN (5) (3) (20)
00: BAL (3) (22) (2) ; NYG (11) (8) (12)
01: NE (11) (11) (13) ; STL (2) (2) (5)
02: TB (1) (20) (1) ; OAK (2) (2) (7)
03: NE (4) (14) (2) ; CAR (16) (18) (10)
04: NE (2) (3) (7) ; PHI (6) (9) (16)
05: PIT (4) (8) (3) ; SEA (3) (1) (16)
06: IND (7) (1) (25) ; CHI (5) (20) (2)
07: NYG (14) (18) (13) ; NE (1) (1) (11)
08: PIT (4) (21) (1) ; ARI (21) (15) (21)
09: NO (6) (2) (17) ; IND (8) (6) (16)
10: GB (4) (7) (2) ; PIT (2) (5) (1)
11: NYG (12) (7) (19) ; (3) (3) (30)
12: BAL (8) (13) (19) ; SF (4) (5) (3)
13: SEA (1) (7) (1) ; DEN (2) (1) (15)
14: NE (4) (6) (12) ; SEA (1) (5) (1)
15: DEN (8) (25) (1) ; CAR (4) (8) (2)
16: NE (1) (2) (16) ; ATL (3) (1) (27)
17: ?


Top 3 ranked in units marked in bold
Outside Top 12(playoff field) marked red


https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2016/building-super-bowl-winner-part-i

Just some things to think about 
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Posted: #2
Since the DVOA era(1989), 40 of the 56 Super Bowl participants(71.4%) made the playoffs the previous season. 

6 teams(10.7%) out of 56 Super Bowl participants followed a losing season with a Super Bowl appearance. 

1996 New England Patriots(finished 6-10 previous yr)
1998 Atlanta Falcons(finished 7-9 previous yr)
1999 St Louis Rams(finished 4-12 previous yr)
2000 New York Giants(finished 7-9 previous yr)
2001 New England Patriots(finished 5-11 previous yr)
2003 Carolina Panthers(finished 7-9 previous yr)
2015* Carolina Panthers(finished 7-8-1 and still made playoffs previous yr)

these teams went 2-4 in the Super Bowl, 2-5 if you count the 2015 Panthers but that is debatable.

5 teams(8.9%) out of 56 Super Bowl participants that didn't make the playoffs the previous season with an 8-8 record but made a Super Bowl appearance the following year

- 1999 Tennessee Titans
- 2000 Baltimore Ravens
- 2008 Arizona Cardinals
- 2009 New Orleans Saints
- 2016 Atlanta Falcons

these teams are 2-3 in the Super Bowl. 

in total, there are 11 suprise teams, make it 12 if you count the 2015 Panthers with combined record of 4-7 or 4-8. If we try to look for some predictive patterns.. from 1996 to 2003 was the most active period for these surprise teams. Then 5 years later we had a mini-resurgence of surprise teams from 2008 to 2009. Most recently from 2015 to present we have had two teams who we thought would never go to the Super Bowl. This pattern may continue for another several years or more. 

of all the playoff contenders in the hunt we have...
Eagles (7-9 last yr)
Vikings (8-8 last yr)
Rams (4-12 last yr)
Jaguars (3-13 last yr)
Titans (9-7 last yr but didn't make playoffs)
Bills (7-9 last yr)
Ravens (8-8 last yr)
Chargers (5-11 last yr)
Saints (7-9 last yr)
Panthers (6-10 last yr)

There's 10 possible candidates that could make a legitimate shot at playing in the Super Bowl. Out of all those teams: Rams, Ravens and Saints have done it before. The 1999 Rams were 4-12 the season before and coincidentally the 2017 Rams were also 4-12 the season before. Some comparisons have been made of this year's Rams offense to the Greatest Show on Turf. The 2000 Ravens went 8-8 the season before and went on to win the Super Bowl with one of the best defenses of all time. Last season the Ravens were also 8-8 and some comparisons have been made of this Ravens defense and the 2000 defense. The 2009 Saints missed the playoffs the previous year but went on to win the Super Bowl. Comparisons have been made between this year's Saints and the one that won the Super Bowl. 

Cant remember when was the last time a 3-13 team went to the Super Bowl in the 16 game regular season format. the Jaguars would surely outdo the Rams if they can accomplish that feat. i also think 8-8 teams do alot better at bouncing back the next year. 



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Posted: #3
The Jaguars are not going to the super bowl nor are the Rams. Bortles is not a marketable qb and when they are asked to be one dimensional in the playoffs, relying on Bortles is a death sentence. Please nobody refer to the Seahawks game....the Seahawks secondary is not good. As for the Rams I like their balance and their defense but again, in the NFC, I see a Cowboys part two occurring with a better qb beating them. Just my two cents.
 
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Posted: #4
couldn't agree more Achilles, playoff experience will matter down the road.  i am just surprised that Football Outsiders still has the Rams as their #1 overall DVOA team and i think a few weeks ago the best chance to win the Super Bowl but they have slipped to #3 but now FO has the Steelers as the #1 best odds to win the SB followed by Eagles then Rams. 
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Posted: #5
Out of the 28 Super Bowl winners...

11 of them were #1 Overall in DVOA
3 of them were #2
2 of them were #3
5 of them were #4
1 of them were #6
1 of them were #7
2 of them were #8
3 of them finished #11, 12, 14(latter two were by the Giants vs Pats)

Out of the 28 Super Bowl losers...

3 of them were #1 Overall in DVOA
4 of them were #2
3 of them were #3
5 of them were #4
2 of them were #5
2 of them were #6
2 of them were #7
3 of them were #8
4 of them finished #11, 12, 16, 21

the most common factor for #1's
11 out of 14 teams had top 5 offenses
9 of those 14 teams also had a top 5 defense
the #1's have gone 8-3 in the Super Bowl
#1's have a great offense and good to decent defense

the most common factor for #2's
7 out of 7 teams had top 5 offenses
2 out of 7 had top 5 defenses, 3 of 7 had a top 10 defense, and 2 ranked outside of the top 10
the #2's have gone 3-4 in the Super Bowl
#2's have a great offense and decent defense

the most common factor for #3's
4 out of 5 teams had top 5 offenses
1 of them had top 5 defense, 1 of them had top 10 defense and 3 of 5 teams had defense ranked outside top 10
the #3's have gone 2-3 in the Super Bowl
#3's have good to decent offense and average defense

the most common factor for #4's
6 out of 10 teams had top 10 offenses with only 2 ranking within top 5
8 out of 10 teams had top 5 defense with only 2 ranking outside the top 10
the #4's have gone 5-5 in the Super Bowl
#4's decent to average offense with good to great defense

Balance or imbalance?
It's hard to have a team that is balanced on offense and defense nowadays. In order for teams to have a chance the team has to be at least be top 8 in either defense or offense. If a team's offense ranks outside of the top 10 then that defense has to be at least top 5 and realistically top 3. If a team's offense ranks in the top 10 than they can kind of get away with an average defense as long as it is not outside the top 15 teams or even top 10 just to be safe. 

Does defense or offense wins championships?
there have been ten #1 offenses in the Super Bowl, they went 6-5. 
there have been seven #1 defenses in the Super Bowl, they went 5-2.

out of 28 recent matches the better ranked defense has won 16 out of 28 times.
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Posted: #6
According to football outsiders 

Here are their odds to win the Super Bowl updated 12/18(before monday night)

1. Patriots 18.7%
2. Rams 16.2%
3. Eagles 12.9%
4. Steelers 12.3%
5. Vikings 12.2%
6 Jaguars 8.3%
7. Saints 7.6%
8. Ravens 6.1%
9 Panthers 2.8%
10. Chiefs 1.4%

After week 14 and prior to New England beating Pittsburgh the Steelers were #1 and i think Pats were #4 or 5....
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Posted: #7
The ranking of each team's offense, defense and special teams according to FO before week 15. 

1. Patriots OFF:1 DEF:30 ST:5
2. Rams OFF:5 DEF:4 ST:2
3. Eagles OFF:4 DEF:3 ST:12
4. Steelers OFF:3 DEF:11 ST:14
5. Vikings OFF:7 DEF:8 ST:19
6 Jaguars OFF:16 DEF:2 ST:23
7. Saints OFF:2 DEF:9 ST:21
8. Ravens OFF:22 DEF:1 ST:1
9 Panthers OFF:17 DEF:6 ST:8
10. Chiefs OFF:6 DEF:27 ST:4

Top 3 offense
1. Patriots
2. Saints
3. Steelers

Top 3 defense
1. Ravens
2. Jaguars
3. Eagles

Top 3 Special Teams
1. Ravens
2. Rams
3. Cowboys
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Posted: #8
rams can be bet at 12-1 to win bowl. top DVOA in the league. one of the few teams to be top 5 in all three categories in a long time. worth a unit in my opinion. can hedge some off later if desired.
 
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Posted: #9
NE's defense is pretty damn weak.  It is possible for PIT to beat them at NE.  I hope to get 3.5+ points in the playoffs.
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:

NE's defense is pretty damn weak.  It is possible for PIT to beat them at NE.  I hope to get 3.5+ points in the playoffs.

This is why i think NE will go down this year. This is their worst defense statistically since 2011, 2005. They did go to Super Bowl with 30th in defense in 2011 but didnt win it. In 2005 they lost divisional to Broncos. No team worst than 25th has won it since '89
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Posted: #11

I like the Rams balance and Sean McVay looks like he will be around awhile plus they also have Wade Phillips and he's great defensive mind...Also think Donald is the best player in the NFL... They will be a tough out for sure 

 
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Posted: #12
At this point i think the Rams are better than the Eagles despite losing to them the other week but they hung tough. If they were to meet again i have a feeling Rams will get even. Rams, Saints and Vikings look to be the ones representing the NFC, too close to call. The eyeball test tells me the Vikings are the better team. For me its Vikings, Rams, Eagles then Saints. 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629:

The Jaguars are not going to the super bowl nor are the Rams. Bortles is not a marketable qb and when they are asked to be one dimensional in the playoffs, relying on Bortles is a death sentence. Please nobody refer to the Seahawks game....the Seahawks secondary is not good. As for the Rams I like their balance and their defense but again, in the NFC, I see a Cowboys part two occurring with a better qb beating them. Just my two cents.


Couldn’t disagree more I’d give Jacksonville a great chance to get to the Bowl. That defense is the best in the NFL hands down. They give up 14.9 pets per game  full 2.5 points better then the next best .. that is sick. You better check the stats Bortles has played much better as the season had gone on but the bottom line he doesn’t have to do that much just don’t screw ot up when you have Fournette and that D
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by Digitalkarma:

At this point i think the Rams are better than the Eagles despite losing to them the other week but they hung tough. If they were to meet again i have a feeling Rams will get even. Rams, Saints and Vikings look to be the ones representing the NFC, too close to call. The eyeball test tells me the Vikings are the better team. For me its Vikings, Rams, Eagles then Saints. 

Vikings appear to have very few weakness on their defense on top of QB Keenum who is playing very well and solid ground game (#9 in NFL). This could be the team going deep in the postseason.    
 
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Posted: #15
Good to hear from ya again europa 

Yea maybe offensively the Vikings arent up there with Rams and Saints but i put more weight on defensive performance than i do offense and the Vikes look solid to me plus they beat them SU dont see why they cant beat them again
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Posted: #16
Greg Zuerlein out for the year.. Big blow to Rams special teams. Good special teams is a must in playoffs. Zuerlein accounts for 33% of the Rams offense...
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by Digitalkarma:

Greg Zuerlein out for the year.. Big blow to Rams special teams. Good special teams is a must in playoffs. Zuerlein accounts for 33% of the Rams offense...


yes. that's huge. damn.
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by WilliamMunny:



Couldn’t disagree more I’d give Jacksonville a great chance to get to the Bowl. That defense is the best in the NFL hands down. They give up 14.9 pets per game  full 2.5 points better then the next best .. that is sick. You better check the stats Bortles has played much better as the season had gone on but the bottom line he doesn’t have to do that much just don’t screw ot up when you have Fournette and that D

We have our opinions. Bortles ain't beating Brady of Ben though. It's just not happening. A qb just doesn't all the sudden change his tendencies. He can have good games and a solid supporting cast but much like Jay Cutler with the Bears and even Brett Favre in his days, great teams, experienced teams WILL TAKE AWAY HIS SUPPORTING CAST AND FORCE BORTLES TO BEAT THEM. Of you want to put your money on him, so be it but we'll hear the toilet flush in the background soon thereafter. The playoffs are a different animal, especially on the road and even though they are playing teams with no defenses lately and running up the score to make it look as if the Jags are World beaters, I'd take Foles, Keenum, Goff over Bortles. Peal away at the layers and I know what we are getting in Bortles when the Jags need him most. We'll see.....perception vs.reality.....

 
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Posted: #19
Here is what i have noticed since the "Patriots" era. The #1 DVOA teams havent had much success like they once did in the past. Only 5 have reached the Super Bowl since 2001 and they are 3-2 in that span. That is bad news for the DVOA darling 2017 Rams. The #4 DVOA teams have made a Super Bowl appearance 7 times, the most of any since 2001 and have a 5-2 record. You need to be at least top 8 DVOA to have any sort of chance to make it and chances are greater if you rank in the top 4. 
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Posted: #20
the top 10 DVOA teams and (weighted DVOA) after week 15

1.   Rams 38% (1: 43.4%)
2.   Saints 30.6% (2: 32.7%)
3.   Eagles 27.3% (3: 31%)
4.   Ravens 24.2% (4: 30.7%)
5.   Steelers 23.8% (9: 20%)
6.   Vikings 23.6% (6: 23.6%)
7.   Jaguars 20.8% (7: 21%)
8.   Patriots 18.8% (5: 25.1%)
9.   Panthers 17.0% (8: 20.7%)
10. Chiefs 13.6% (14: 2.5%)
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Posted: #21
The future looks scary...
Every team looks beatable...
I'd be careful if you're #1 seed..
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Posted: #22
Digi, 



look up the odds on a AFC team favored up to -160 (William Hill) 

they the record is 88% chance that Patriots make the Superbowl ......plug that garbage in 
 
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Posted: #23
I know what the odds are, they are always around that price from -120 to -200 even for as long as Brady been around 

Imagine though.. if you bet on Pats to make to the Super Bowl every year with that kind of juice its a losing propisition. 7 times out of 16 seasons. 7-9. 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by Digitalkarma:

The future looks scary...
Every team looks beatable...
I'd be careful if you're #1 seed..

WIDE OPEN this year. 
If i'd have to guess, i'd say NE vs Philly in Superbowl, but who the F knows. 
 
 
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Posted: #25
Good Stuff !!! 

It appears almost certain that the team coming out of NFC will have an 8-8 or worse record last year.

Maybe both SB teams. That'd be a first.
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