Easy live betting strategy for this season

One of the many reasons I don't want to bet the NFL any more: I noticed last season that any team that takes a big lead before the half, more often than not they suddenly turn into a team that cannot score a TD or at all.

The Titans, Eagles and Bills were the worst for doing it. I had so many tickets I had to sweat out the last minute or lost the bet when it was cruising all 1st half.

It happens so often I've turned into one of those foil hat guys. I'm convinced the game is rigged to make it somehow always come down to the final drive. Keeps you watching, and betting.

Anyway, I'm seriously considering just not betting or handicapping the games all week (why spend time thinking about the games and looking up stats, etc. when it's all designed to be a friggin coinflip anyway?).

All I'm gonna do is log on to my account at halftime and bet the +points on any team that is down by 10 points or more. Based on last season this will churn a nice profit.

I'm gonna wait until the reg season to start doing it but it would have worked today as the Saints, with a 10 point halftime lead, allowed 24 unanswered in the 2nd half and were about to lose the game after screwing up a 2 pt conversion. Only for the Chiefs to hand them a gift wrapped game winning FG on an inexplicable playcall and throw.

At halftime the Saints were -700 to win the game.

One thing I know is live betting on the team already winning at halftime will lead you to the poorhouse in the NFL. Why do you think they have a million ad breaks? Well, it's for the ad money, sure, but it's also to make sure there's plenty of opportunities for a momentum shift. Same reason they give NBA teams 45 timeouts apiece. No good having ads on every 5 minutes if everyone stopped watching cuz it's a blowout.

Maybe there are some gamblers that enjoy sweating every bet. Me personally I'm tired of doing all the research and when I've got the right side, team is rolling at the half, then suddenly they can't play a lick and the ref hates them. They'll go a full quarter without scoring a point and the coach will still choose not to kick a FG on 4th and 3 to turn a 6 point lead into 9 like Mike McDaniel did last year.

It's happening so much I just can't believe it's not by design any more. Or maybe it's just human nature. All I know is what happens is all the games are sweats now since gambling became legal in the US. And coin flip games are great for ratings and great for bookies too.

Or maybe it's always been like this and I was just too dumb to see it then. After all, it's been for quite some years that the majority of spreads are single digits. That indicates they are not often more than one score games at the end.

Anyway... be interesting to see if you could make more money doing this than handicapping games and betting pregame numbers. Would certainly save a lot of time and headspace.

   Philly Brown

Would have gone 1-1 yesterday.    But it sounds logical.... there is no way that mankind is capable of not influencing outcomes that involve money.... 

@NutinButtLove

 I'm a old school straight up bettor on lines only, 90% Dog player......I've had books take my bets after games have started because games don't end in the 1st qt ever....I've been working on something very similar to test this year maybe and spoke of this before but no one paid attention.....I'm one that believes Vegas never came up with a 100 ways to bet a game for our benifit.....I stick to betting lines and try to master the best I can but for the first time since 74 thinking of changing up......Very close to what you're speaking but my teams need to fall behind for my way to work......That means only half my plays could be played maybe but will explain if I decide to do so.......You're on to something but always remember, Vegas does nothing to help the player and if they ever do its in the line :) Most will never understand Vegas controls when you win and why 98.2% lose at the game of sport investing as I call it......I beat the book on average in every sport but the NFL has been my toughest sport to beat the past few yrs and I still beat them but not like years ago in the NFL....I may experiment this year but all my plays will get a much better line by waiting and that extra point can mean alot :)   Don't know if I'll try yet because it requires being on top of the game and I don't like doing that.......You're on to something in more than one way so don't worry what others ever say, most lose so why???? All my opinion and to win at sport investing you better think outside the box :)   again all my opinion but I like yours here,   Knock!

@Mskeets

 Billionaires money :)   I've never trusted one,   Knock!

Why not just keep the original bet and hedge at halftime. Can hit both. 

I do understand where you’re coming from. The NBA yielded similar outcomes all season long. Team X up by 18 at the half and don’t cover FG, often losing outright. Brutal. 

Personally I will be riding the Jagz every week and utilizing the martingale.

Why don’t you just bet your teams first half then ?

I agree,

Just another way of getting value. You're backing a team down by 17 and the line is 7.

Same goes with an extremely high or low scoring 1H. Usually the game will come closer to the pregame number.

Same goes with the last inning of a lot of MLB games.

Not a bad bet to take a team down by at least a few runs. These Bullpens suck and you can usually get a +250 or more line

for the losing team to push at least one meaningless run across the plate.

I don't think every game is scripted but to believe that none of it is scripted, isn't believeable.

Good Luck 

@NutinButtLove

 my father used to call it changing uniforms at half and this was when ya titel and brown were playing

I don't really like 1st half betting, and I put a lot of stock into 3rd quarter points scored and allowed stats as I think it's the most important quarter. When your pick isn't ahead it's good to know they are a good 3rd quarter team, especially if they get the ball to start the half.

Betting 1st half, half the time you will be minus 1 possession if your team wins the toss and defers. Full game it's evened out. By betting at halftime, you already know who gets the ball to start the 3rd. And I find that 1st possession is what decides if the game gets closer or not.

I see your point, but this way I don't actually need to even make any picks or try to figure out anything. No handicapping whatsoever. Just taking the +points on any team down double digits.

 I don't even really want to bet the NFL at all any more because of the BS involved in keeping games close so I'm trying to take advantage of it.

Also, teams often do the same prevent crap at the end of the half. Ever notice how suddenly the last 2 minutes a 3rd down stop is impossible to get?  It's like they forget how to play defense. It's maddening. Similar to in NBA at the end of a game the winning team starts winding the shot clock all the way down and that takes precedence over running the offense correctly..so they waste time and take a bad shot then the other team pushes up the floor and gets an and1 and that's how big leads dissipate in 3 minutes.

I see a lot of people complaining on the forum during the season about how last second FG attempts either win or lose their 1st half bets so I just don't think it will be any less frustrating. And one thing I've noticed about 1st half players, they all bet 2nd halfs as well. They end up having 10 bets on the early slate alone and you'll never win that way.

I actually want a much lower volume of bets this year because of all the BS. The other thing I'm considering besides this is just betting on one single game only in each slate. If you're betting 3 or 4 games every slate the chances are much higher you're going to be sweating out at least 2 of those on the final drive. And then only betting a max of 1 of the TV games per week, so only one out of the TNF/SNF/MNF. Because those games, especially the TNF are usually the biggest culprits for manufactured nailbiters. I think SNF wasnt as bad for it. But anyway I don't live in the US any more so skipping those completely is better for my bedtime as they don't start til around 1.30 am where I am. So I would only bet them if it was a game I would genuinely bet on Sunday.

I've also decided I won't bet any college at all this season. Way too many games to keep track of and now I don't even know what teams are in which conference.

I just seem to have a blown lead disease man, in MLB yesterday I had a 2 teamer, one game wins easily, the other game the Marlins were up 3-0 and blew it, then retook the lead went up 5-4 and ended up losing 6-5. 2 blown leads in one game.

Today I take the Twins, they go up 4-0. Certainly I can't have this happen again after yesterday's debacle, right? They give up 8 unanswered! Then just to funk with me they cut it to 8-7 with a man on base 1 out, and they GDP.

Friggin annoying man.

@ActionMagnet

 Was thinking the exact same thing. You have the first win no matter if you hedge the play and a possible middle.

just take low road dogs  coming off a double digit loss playing their next game at home..... that one hits 58 per cent of the time

NBL

I think this might of worked on College Football this last weekend 

It totally worked. Teams were Jekyll and Hyde between halfs. I was watching East Michigan play Howard (to see if they would match up vs Minnesota) they were 21 point favs it was 30-6 at halftime they didn't score another TD after, just one Field goal, could have lost SU. Vs friggin Howard!

LSU wasn't up double digits but was winning and then didnt score until the game was decided. Georgia Tech was an 8 pt dog and was up 8 and lost, looked like the cover was lost too but they scored a garbage time TD like LSU when the game was already basically over.

These college kids are the worst for blowing leads, and it looks like the lack of stability with all these transfers is making teams horrible at tackling so I think it probably is actually even more effective in college.

They want sports to be like March Madness all the time esp college so any time you see a game that isn't that close there is value. If the fav is up by 10+ bet the dog plus the points live, if the dog is winning SU take the favorite +whatever or just to come back and win the game.

ALWAYS take the Chiefs at halftime if they are down. ALWAYS. 

@NutinButtLove

 4th W betting with a team TWO TD’s should be money. You are spot on with the prevent defense. If a team has a score to give, they will give it. I don’t think it is rigged as much as it doesn’t matter and the guys are tired at the end of the game. Why risk injury on plays that most likely will not matter? Or they are up so much, they put in the 2nd team and that’s when the stat hawks come out. It is much easier for a 1st team offense to score against a 2nd Team defense. Add 1st starter injuries to the mix and that 2nd team is downright awful in NFL standards. I think I might track this. Teams down 3 TD’s at half and 2 TD’s to start the 4th Q.  

@NONEED4LUCK

 It's rare for a team to be down 3 TDs at the half I'm looking at playing on teams down 10+ points and especially any teams down 10+ getting 14+

@NutinButtLove

 Rare but I remember the Pats up 35-0 at Miami and they put in the scrubs and Miami came back. They had to insert TB12 back into the game to get a home of it. If a team is down 3 TD’s at half, they will come back. 

Minnesota last year. 

@NutinButtLove

 If taking all dogs down 10+ at HT is a legitimate angle (ie, not just a random set of lucky results from one season) and you have the actual 5+ most recent years of NFL results to back it up with high confidence (only one year stats can easily be a misleading anomaly, that's why you must have multiple years all confirming one another) - then go for it!   I'll be cheering for you!

But beware, the books will be running their algorithms and start twisting those 2H and game lines soon enough. They always do. Always! As stated by others here, the books don't like losing money and are very quick to catch on.
Keep us posted how it's progressing whether you bet the game or not.
Will be interesting to view the results.

Interesting! GL 

No, I don't need multiple years. 5 years ago gambling wasnt legal in the US. You couldn't live bet a game at all outside of Vegas really.

It's the last few years I've noticed this getting worse. I don't need or want to track it over every game I just know whenever I had a team up big they suddenly stopped scoring 2nd half.

And it used to be the end of the game, let them play, you could wack the crap out of guys in the late 4th quarter. Now, they're looking for ANY reason to give the losing team a chance at making the game tight.

You can wait 5 years if you want, but you might be dead by then. Using the past 5 years is irrelevant as there have been so many rule changes from the PAT to the OT to what is a catch to what you can challenge and all these changes are to design games that are coin flips.

@NutinButtLove

Most games now has single digit spread and if the dog trails 10+ at half, most of the time they will be fav 2H. How do you play those situation?