Posted:
#1
This system is actually for NFL and NCAAF, as long as the game fits a certain criteria. The best way to explain how the system works is give you an example of my first bet.
Tennessee -160 vs Georgia Tech +140
Now Tennessee is a -160 favorite which gives them about a 61.5% chance of winning this game. That is the math behind the odds, a simple google search will show you the percent chance each team has of winning based on their moneyline. Georgia Tech is +140 which gives them a 41.66% chance of winning.
After you check the moneylines and the chance the books give each team of winning, head over to your ESPN app and click on the game. You will see ESPN gives Tennessee a 68.1% chance of winning and Georgia Tech a 31.9% chance of winning.
With a 68.1% chance of winning, Tennessee should be around -220. With a 31.9% chance of winning GT should be around +160.
The value here is in a Tennessee ML play. Im looking for differences of 5% and higher. Tennessee is 68.1% likely to win, yet we are getting to bet them as if they are 61.5%. This is a 6.6% different.
The bet: Tennessee ML -$160 to win $100
I did this last year for NFL on a couple of games when i had some free time and had some success although i dont have the exact numbers. Going to give it a try for both NFL and NCAAF this year. Right now the Lions and Bears look like they have some value this sunday.
Best of luck.
0
It is actually worth following for the rest of the season...
Hot Forum Topics
