Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
*Joe Flaco has 10 playoff wins* (most by any qb since 2008)
*Tom Brady has 18 playoff wins*
(most in NFL history)
I was watching ESPN when I had the sudden urge to drop deuce. I paused the tv and proceeded to the bathroom to take care of business. On my return to the living room and t.v., I noticed the above graphic paused on my screen. I read it, thought about what it meant, and read it again(go ahead, read it again). Then blankly stared at it. The only conclusion I came up w/ was that its as useless as the turd I just flushed down the toilet. Nothing about that paused graphic gives me any insight, info, angles, advantages or feel for who will win or cover ats this saturday.
Instantly i remembered the post game after the Pitt/Balt game. Just after the last second came off the clock, and players were shaking hands, the network throws the Flaco graphics up.
-Ravens have 10 road playoff wins
-Flacco leads post season series 2-1
(all 3 games played in N.E.)
-Flaco hasnt thrown an INT in 166 passes
-Flaco leads all qb's in pass interference calls against
and so on...what does being 2-1 at foxboro tell me? If he is going to be 3-1 or 2-2 at foxboro after saturdays game? No. All these small sample sized stats, mostly from the past, are feed to us deliberately to confuse and sidetrack us from the game at hand. So here are some important bits, stats, and my thoughts on why the pats cover -7.
1. SOS(strength of schedule) Patriots 6th
Baltimore 30th
There may be no more important stat in football. Shows you not what a team did, but who they did it against. The battle tested team had the tougher road, been in higher level games, faced formidable players.
2. Patriots #1 ranked 4th quarter HOME defense
Ravens #27 ranked 4th quarter AWAY defense
Simply put, the pats dont only shut the back door, they put a dead bolt on it, allowing an average of 2.13pts in the 4th quarter. The ravens allow an avg of 8 pts in the 4th, (belichik likes to extend leads).
3. Derelle Revis
When is the last time the patriots shelled out cash for a premier free agent...Im 33 years old and cant recall one in the belichick era. He was well worth it. A shut down corner is priceless. Last time flacco faced the pats in the playoffs(2012) the pats had the 30th ranked defense.*side note* in 3 games steve smith has caught 2 of 10 pass attempts for 23yds while being covered by revis. revis intercepting 2 of those attempts*
4. Revenge Factor
No one holds a grudge worse than Belichick. And he is never one to take his foot off the gas for anyone. 2012 playoff loss still burns him.
5. PATRIOTS HEALTH
The Patriots reported 100% attendance on tue, w/ no injuries to report. Gronkowski may be the healthiest he has been since he was a rookie. He didnt play week 17, nor did Julian Eddleman, 2 guys that are fearless over the middle. 2 guys whos prioritys are catching and securing the ball while taking a hit. W/ the ravens tough front 7, passes will come out quickly and there will be some tough 2 and 3 play first downs to gain.
6. BYE WEEK
Giving Belichick 2 weeks to gameplan=death to the opposing coaches gameplan. The Pats have far too many weapons (underneath and slot) to isolate and create mismatches vs those backers. Vareen, eddleman, gronk, wright and amendola will all be used creatively.
7. 211
In all of the pats 12 wins this season they have scored 211 more points than their opponents. winning by an average of 17.58 points.
8. 95.39%
currently the percentage of $ on Baltimore
2 reasons for this I've concluded. One, too many people watch ESPN. And apply insignificant sample sized stats from the past when making a wager. And two, wise guys simply dont lay 7 points.
There's so many more reasons to mention, but thats enough for me. This is by far my favorite play this weekend.
PATS WIN 41-17.
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