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Dr. John here. As today is the 7th anniversary of the Mrs.' passing, I decided I'd honor her beloved memory by returning to Covers for 1 night, to inform my dearest followers and admirers of a very special play on the board this weekend (on a momentary aside, it warms the heart to see the outpouring of concern and affection voiced through the tremendous influx of personal messages. Dr. J is, indeed, alive and doing quite well. But alas, I find myself rambling once again...).
The game- Rotation 259, Oakland Raiders @ Indianapolis Colts. The side - Raiders +7 -112. The rationale is as follows:
Since their Week 1 cover vs. the Denver Broncos, the Raiders have looked nothing short of abysmal in their previous two outings. Their offense, which ranks 27th in the league barely ahead of the lowly Tennessee Titans, has looked impotent at times, and questions continue to surface for the former Super Bowl champion coach who in his own words wants to "throw the game back to 1998". As captivating as he may be in the commentary box, it seems that Jon Gruden has fallen out of touch with the modern offense during his time out of the league. Gabe Jackson's continued absence won't help matters, and he was sorely missed in last week's blowout loss to the Vikings.
The Raiders may, however, find some success this week against a mediocre Colts defense that surrendered 397 yards to the Falcons in the previous matchup, and last week's blowout loss coupled with the Colts' Primetime matchup vs. the Kansas City Chiefs next week actually sets up quite nicely for a bounce back opportunity. In fact, consulting Dr. John's proprietary database with 11 years of NFL data, the Raiders qualify for a rare situational angle which plays off of relatively bad teams (1-2 or worse through Week 3) coming off an ATS loss of 10+ points in the prior week; in such instances, teams are 27-6-1 ATS. In addition to this rare angle, DRJ's statistical model pegs a fair line on this game as Colts -6, so there is some line value at +7 as well.
Take Raiders +7 -112 (up to -120) for a 4 Unit play [~8% of one's bankroll, per the Kelly Criterion (halved)].
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