General Thoughts on Gambling

I have been an unregistered user of this site off and on for 20 years plus. Lots of highs and lows through these years. As I'm getting older, to me gambling has become more of a hobby (expensive one), but one I am willing to pay for as it's one of the few activities in life I look forward to. One thing I am starting to notice (but has always been there) and would like some feedback on is this obsession with what side the money is on and how that is so important to know. If you know this info you can't lose cause vegas doesn't lose right? Well my thoughts on this have become IT DOESN'T MATTER, Vegas can give two sh*ts about any one single game, they are there for the long run and if u win 1 million dollars cause they made a "mistake" they are only gonna get it back tenfold over the course of your lifetime. Some of the biggest gamblers I know all won big their first time gambling, and guess what...you already know what happened. Please let me know if my thought process makes sense here or if it's just my personal experience.It just seems to me like the gambling industry is fueled by addiction and that fact alone makes any one game or any one bet irrelevant. No one or very few will win big and walk away for good. 

I tell you what.  I been doing this for a long time and got helped.  Stopped after 5dimes went under.  How long has it been?  Been that long and with no sports gambling, I stayed away from this site plus stopped watching sports all together.  I just got back in again because a friend made me an account with him because he's my bookie.  I was ok, betting small unit for fun then I started losing.  Then the units got larger and larger.  Then the chase because I'm a sore loser.  

I went into lapse last weekend.  I stayed in my bed on Sat n played ncaaf all day, one after the next.  Then woke up on Sunday just to do it all again with the NFL.  I could not get anything done.  This was my life before and I went back into it.  Nevermore.  

Now I'll have control.  Ok I'm still a loser but still in control.  I'm not couch potato anymore.  I'll bet it n forget about it.  When you see me here n making noise, it means I have time to engage with sports.  Not today though.  I want to have s life too.  

Take care of yourself. 

@TxG31

 There’s a documentary from ARTE on YouTube that came out yesterday about sports gambling. According to them, 99% of sports gamblers lose in the long run. It’s that bad. I have been sports gambling for 12 years and I’ve lost an average of $5000 a year. Lol. It’s life, I also consider this a hobby. Like I tell my family, they like going abroad to travel, and I like staying home and gambling. It’s life. Lol. But you’re right, Vegas is in for the long run. The only way to make money would be to become a bookie. My brother and I always joke about that. 

Happy Thanksgiving! Good luck to all!! 

Throwing a few bux on a game you have no real interest in makes for an infinitely more enjoyable experience.  Just know you're not going to bring down the house and get quit-your-job rich.   Should feel nice when you win and sting a little when you lose.  Obviously it SHOULDN'T be chit.....now I can't pay my car note or mortgage or.....worse. 

not now

Gaming should be treated as an entertainment venue; the issues start when trying to use it as earned income.

Happy Holidays and Best Wishes!

@TxG31

 I agree that 1 game doesn't matter to Vegas and lot of public plays do win. I really think it's impossible to pick winners consistently in the NFL or any other sport. We do it for the high of watching the game and trying to pick the right side. Anybody who says they make money consistently in the NFL is fooling themselves. It should be a hobby as long as you can handle the losses financially. It's fun to sports bet and squeeze on the games. I've lost hundreds of thousands between Vegas and local bookies but retired now so I don't bet anymore. It's a losing proposition to sports bet but it's sooo addicting because of the high.

Interesting 

@TxG31

 Here’s my take on this - it means absolutely nothing what side is taking all the action on a specific game. Vegas loses big on some games and wins big on others. The goal of the bookmakers will always be to make money on the vig which they are guaranteed to do in the long run. 

BUT- you can use this information to your advantage! When one side takes heavy action that is telling you that the line will reflect that. SO, if you want to bet the favorite get your bets in early to get the best line before it gets bet up to a number you’re no longer comfortable with. If you want the dog wait until the line hits it’s peak to get as many points as possible. 

Anyone new to sports betting should bet less than $10 per bet. You can have fun gambling while at the same time not losing your life savings.

Survive! 

    ‘S
Most of you have  hit the nail on the head so to speak very interesting read indeed 

It was not a good day for me at least but I’ll manage, tomorrow’s another day.

That public info meant something back in the 80s and 90s. But now its available to everyone and with sports books everywhere none of that matters. Live betting changes all of that as soon as the ball is kicked anyway..

@tech65

 I completely agree there is not much of a competitive edge i use to bye every news paper in the 90s just looking for any info that may help me crush the book  now you can find it all with a click of a button.  Gambling today is way harder than it us to be and really not worth the time if you're goal is to win money.

Idk, I use it to buy things I like such as Katana pool cues and such.  I think the goal is to turn a profit, any profit yearly.

Easily attainable if you stuck to what you should play and not get sucked into what they offer on prime time.

To the original point, I think it is important to know where the money is, mainly what the book needs as it generally is good to be on that side long term.  But they do make mistakes and I'm a stubborn soul.

Well thought out and written responses.  This comes up from time to time here, and I always like reading these threads.

Another perspective...

Sports gambling is difficult, but everyone wants it to be easy.  That might be the simplest way to describe why so many lose and so few win.  For me - about 25 years ago I made a decision that if I wanted to keep sports gambling, I didnt want to lose anymore.  So I put in a ton of work.  I figured some stuff out.  I studied (literally took college courses on stats, game theory, and probability).  I put in the hours, hundreds and thousands of them.

I took the emotion out also.  This is a key.  It is really hard to be successful long term with emotions.

I have been able to make a career out of this and do very well.  But only because of the discipline.  And a few other ingredients in the soup....

1.  I have made handicapping far less important than what it is to the average sports bettor.  I do this by increasing consistency, and decreasing standard deviations.  Someone recently posted in one of my threads (as an insult) that I am "good, but not great".  That is a huge compliment for me.  I want to be reliably and consistently good for a long period of time.  That is enough.

2.  Multiple streams of gambling income.  Covers format really only allows picks.  But for me - I buy and sell lines all week - very often resulting in games where I have zero risk and lots of upside.  But either way, this is a huge income stream.  It takes a lot of work.  I stare at screens all day.  I work to have dozens of outs at every sports book. 

3.  Reliable OBJECTIVE models.  Forget how you feel.  You need some kind of stats model that works predicting some kind of results.  

4.  Zero emotions making decisions.  Treat it like a business.  Treat everything like a process.  Consistency.

5.  For me - I only do this for about 8 months a year.  That has proven to be great for me.  I get time to recharge, learn new things, improve my process.

This has resulted in a life where I havent had a real job, and a life that has long periods of vacations.  It also has downsides.  Many.  But overall - it has been great for me and my family.  I would have never been this successful in a real job in the real world, so I am thankful.  It also has resulted in an infinite bankroll.  I realize how that sounds - but I literally do not have a bankroll anymore.  The amount I need to bet to reach my goals is way lower than what my bankroll would be - so I dont even worry about it anymore.

Put the work in.  Find your own slice of the pie that can be replicated.  It aint about picks.  Picks dont mean much.  You need process.  Replicable process.

So instead of looking at it as "winners" and "losers", I look at it as people who want to win and people who want to have a hobby or have fun.  If you want to win - you have to wash your brain of all of these bad habits like actually caring about what the OP wrote about bet percentages (they mean absolutely ZERO).  Wash yourself of the noise.  You have to commit to learning, and finding a process.

Everyone will read this and think this is them.  It is not.  It is not for you.  You dont do this currently - no matter how much you think you do.  You have no idea what this takes.  But it is possible.

Continued GL to all.

A small percentage of gamblers make money but they aren’t like everyone else. They are more like accountants , they don’t eager for fun and excitement Ever - They don’t wager every day , they watch and wait for strong situations which takes incredible discipline that few possess. Timing , Discipline and Money Management are huge factors. People who gamble every day Lose. People who bet multiple games every day lose more. Gambling is a Very powerful addiction that’s why Gamblers Anonymous meetings are 3 hours and Alcohol Anonymous meetings are one hour ! Gambling is a horrible addiction that has ruined many lives ,,,,Our lives are based on the decisions that we make and we make them every day - If you can’t wager like an Accountant, than one should wager very small amounts for entertainment as long as it doesn’t get in the way of their goals because not only does one lose money , we lose Time as well .  A wise person doesn’t get involved w gambling or drugs. That’s my opinion. 

They are corporations now and in the stock market. Do you think they don’t care about squeezing the most they can when ever they can. They do care about primetime games. They will sell their mothers teeth if it had gold in them. Once you start winning they will limit you or ban you. They spend millions trying to figure out who is a smart bettor or recreational, and they only want recreational. Not all books according to Vanzak. Find a system and stick to it is the only way. Sometimes when you are constantly winning you have to loose on purpose just to try to throw the books off.  Arbitrage is another subject but also profitable. Just remember one thing. Who pays the players and coaches, the NFL. Who pays the NFL , the networks and who pays the networks, the commercials. So why do they massage the games is so you keep watching till the end. If the game is 28 to 14 on a -10 spread. Only the bettors will watch the end. And if they win all the time they will not be watching tv. They will be in their yachts. So loosing keeps you coming back. Only a system can have an edge and it only depends on how much you bet each game. 100 dollars vs 10,000 is a world of difference. Hence. Getting limited if you are profitable. 

@vanzack

 I agree with most of what you said the only thing i do not agree with is taking your gut our heart out of making a wager yes numbers do not  lie and in the long run they usually  will play out but a gamble is a gamble not much different from the stock market we all need luck to get ahead.  My biggest win in my life was 56 000 dollars on a proline ncaa football pool played all of 80 dollars invested drunk as a skunk and went 15-16 for 1 winner OLG lottery proline has to been 20 years now but i still talk about it in my local bar and yes i probably gave it all back and then some.

I just try and not send money now. Gave up the big bets and having just as much fun dinking around .Send fifty see how long it goes . Play it down to the last penny swearing Ill send no more .

Fly under the radar, because once a casino or book realizes you're a winner... you're done.

@TxG31

 Of course books don't care about a single match..just like a sports bettor shouldn't put all their hopes into a single bet.  properly done, there is money to be made in sports wagering, but it comes down to 1 fundamental that absolutely has to be followed...money management.  That one word takes alot of understanding!  It's not about respecting a budget, it's about understanding value in the bets you make!  In the long run, this is how books make their money, and you must follow that same agenda and stick to it.  To do this properly, one needs to have an advanced understanding of mathematics...namely statistics/probability, and knowing how to apply that to lines, and again, having discipline.  Most cannot do this, most live in the moment or chase or take unnecessary risks...you have to make the numbers work in your favour, and not just on 1 bet, but over the long term!

@TxG31

 well said !