GIANTS @ BROWNS: It's back to capping basics with this one. Road chalk can burn in HELL.

2016 Record: 32-15

You think I'm taking road chalk here? You couldn't pay me $10 million dollars after what I've been through with road chalk lately. I don't have a single loss taking road or home dogs of late. That's what we'll do here.

The pick:

Browns +7 over Giants

This is a very straightforward pick.

What are the ingredients?

1. Teams on winning streaks vs. Teams on losing streaks

This is our bread and butter. We want teams coming in on long winning streaks. Those teams  are less guarded. They are not "making up" for poor play, hence, off a win, there is little to nothing to improve. This is how the human brain works. If it ain't broke, don't fix it.

We know this to be true with the CFB games we've played recently.

Example: We faded New Mexico last week vs. CSU. UNM got embarrassed getting 49 dropped on them.

Wyoming was coming off a world class win over San Diego State 34-33.

What happened tonight with UNM vs. Wyoming? UNM got out to a 21-0 lead and never looked back winning 42-21.

And what happened to Wyoming before they beat SDSU. They gave up 69 to UNLV in a loss. I watched Craig Bohl say his team would be ready for SDSU. I didn't believe him.

Both Wyoming and UNM responded in the exact same manner off their losses (bouncing back) and off wins (got comfortable). This isn't a universal rule but can be applied situationally, like right here.

The Browns? Well they are on an 11 game losing streak and the secret is to 'harness' the potential win/cover and know when that will come with these awful teams.

Well last week, vs. the Steelers, as 8.5 pt dogs, the Browns battled to stay within the cover until a fumble return for at TD by Pitt took away the cover with 3:23 left. That was quite a moose and probably scared many off the Browns today. We are not scared.

After two lifeless performances vs. the Cowboys (best record in the league) and the Ravens (who were well aware of what the Browns could bring given they went up 20-0 on them earlier in the year), the Browns are fighting.

And we get 7 here.

So, long losing streak vs. long winning streak is a great combo to take the former ESPECIALLY at home with a full TD in a league where points are at a premium. 

2. Just like the Hoosiers, the Giants play down to their competition.

This is the same angle we used for the win with Purdue cover yesterday.

Simply stated: The Giants have 7 wins. They've won all those games by a combined....27 points. That's less than a 4 point per game average.

And the Giants haven't beaten a single team over .500, except for the Cowboys by a hair in game 1 in Dak and Elliot's very first game: Bears (by 6), Bengals (by 1), Eagles (by 5), Rams (by 7), Ravens (by 4), Saints (by 3), were the others. None of those teams will strike fear in anyone and many are simply treading water or are bad. SEVEN POINTS is big here given this.

The Browns are a special breed. They are 0-11. But they are still at home, still fighting off infamy (and if you look at their remaining schedule, they are in trouble with regard to a winless season so home games are at a premium),  getting points and put up enough of a showing for me against the Steelers to trust them here.

3. Giants have no run game

This is very important and very straightforward. If you have a run game, it opens up the pass. And if you are playing a team that can't defend the run, and you can't run, that is a boon to the opposing team to defend the pass more aggressively.

Here are the run totals for the past 6 games against the Browns:

137 Titans

271 Cincy

146 Steelers

119 Baltimore

169 Dallas

171 Jets

Almost all these teams dominated time of possession as expected. 

And even at that, the Browns almost beat the Titans, and Jets, and got moosed on a cover against the Steelers.

The Giants have Vereen and Jennings in the backfield. While they've picked it up of late, if the Browns can't handle the Giants' lousy run game at 0-11 at home, then send them to 0-16.

At a minimum, they have Joe Haden to cover ODB, the most dangerous players in the NFL as the Ravens can attest. The Browns don't do much right but now they face one team with 31st rushing attack in the NFL. This is a long time coming for the Browns. They needed a team like this. And they get them at home.

Deal with the passing game you know will be the primary attack and play a team that plays down to it's competition, close. And we will cover.

4. Josh McCown

I know you don't like him. I like him. I like him because he is the most experienced QB they have right now.

When you are desperate for a win, you have to lean on experience.

THIS is the player that did the following:

Lead the Browns to a 20-0 lead vs. the Ravens in Week 2 (Browns covered)

Lead the Browns on a big comeback vs. the Jets in a 31-28 loss (didn't cover the +1 line)

Had the Browns covering 17-9 vs. the Steelers until he was moosed.

He's 1-3 ATS in starts but those starts included mooses, very low lines, and were really the best Browns performances of the season.

We want him vs. the Giants.

He HAS targets. Pryor and Barnridge at TE. Pryor at 6'4'' 225 will tower over Jenoris Jenkins Barnridge will give the Giants trouble given they had some trouble against Tyler Effert (96 yards) and Zach Miller (61 yards).

So the Browns should move the ball. Should be able to keep this close with the experience under center and the lack of Giants run game as long as they avoid giving up the explosive play.

It should be noted in three trips to the red zone last week, the Steelers came away with only 3 FG's. That says a lot about a defense trying to do it's part to end this streak.

 5. Giants O-Line

Not only do the Giants have the second worst rush attack in the league, they'll have trouble protecting Manning behind a battered O-Line who we know will have to throw. And when they try to run, they'll have problems creating holes.

OUT: Justin Pugh (knee), Brett Jones (calf), Marshall Newhouse (knee). And Adam Gettis (LG starter) is listed as questionable with a calf injury.

You don't want to be this thin at O-Line going on the road against a team that's bad but desperate (and laying points for us).

6. This is Giants first road game in a full month.

Small but relevant point. It'll be a shock to the system.

7. Practice

I'm reading that the Giants had limited and/or no practice on both Thursday and Friday. This is a holiday week.

We used this theory for Purdue. NO amount of practice can improve a team like Purdue or the Browns so their missed practices are largely meaningless.

Where practices are meaningful, are with good teams like the Giants. This was a week of distraction and holiday like it was for all of us. Now they have a game with travel. Hurts the Giants. Browns have nothing to lose.

8. JPP

He was peaking last week. 4 tackles/2.5 sacks. He has an injury and didn't practice all week. McAdoo wavered when asked about his availability.

JPP said he will play but even he admitted he's injured. Having this guy inactive at best or less than 100% at worst against McCown is a big plus given his game last week.

No road chalk. A full TD with the home dog. Losing streaks vs. winning streaks. Other relevant points. This has the makings of a cover if the Browns simply keep up their end of the bargain and limit big plays by the Giants. 

I watched this team really struggle (and fail to cover) against the Bears last week. They are getting quite lazy on this win streak. A holiday week is not the cure for that. The Bengals game was equally unimpressive if not worse.

We will have to FIGHT for this cover but when you get points at home in the NFL, it's like being handed gold. You have to take it, hold onto it and relish it. We have that here. Even at 0-11, this is all worth something. This might get up to 7.5 before kick-off as squares try to recoup from CFB if you want to wait.

Newton's Law just said this in another thread:

Week after week guys trying to look like a genius picking the brownies

It wasn't said to me but I want to stress this:

I could give a shi* about looking sharp. A win is a win is a win. And your bankroll looks exactly the same when you take the Patriots or when you take Rutgers.

This game was fully capped. And believe me, I looked at the other home dogs (Bucs, Jets, Bears, Texans) and this was the best of the 5.

Fade

Wyoming lost 56-35 to New Mexico not 42-21. I thought it said final about a half hour ago.

I'm telling you folks, points are very important. Not in EVERY case but in many cases.

You better justify EVERY SINGLE POINT you lay. If you take points, you need only justify the side.

If you lay them you have to justify the side AND the points. That's hard to do! I've been doing this for many years. It is very hard to do.

Look at UMass RIGHT NOW. NOTHING to play for against Hawaii.

They are a TERRIBLE CFB program and a 2 win team. They schedule a trip to Hawaii for their final game. Many thought it was a Thanksgiving vacation. No one knew.

Hawaii is fighting for a bowl with 5 wins and needs to get to 6.

EVERYTHING to play for.

This is a ROAD dog traveling thousands of miles and has body clock issues vs. a team that's home who desperately wants a bowl.

Current score? Umass 33 Hawaii 40

The line is???? 7.5.

Well Umass just tied it up 40-40 as I typed. Unreal.

And points are at even more of premium in the NFL where millionaires do not play with the same do-or-die intensity college players do. They have tens of millions and sometimes hundreds of millions of dollars in investment to protect. That affects these scores.

We get points here at home with the Browns = valuable. 

Quote Originally Posted by bettorjon:

sorry scal

i love your plays but this wont win

giants-4.5@1.57

is free money here

i know you wont play this and everyone who has been following you would disagree but this is how i make money

take the alternative line and win big

gl on your play

If my pick won't win then why did you buy your line down to Giants -4.5????

You must be afraid of the Browns at -7 or you wouldn't do such a thing!

I got NYG ML in a parlay, may we both win.

BOL