Did you get that Pit Bal game before they announced Big Ben out? If so, bravo! I still like the under at 41.5... And as for Cleveland and Oakland, I think those are the sharpest picks available this weekend. With you large on both.
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Did you get that Pit Bal game before they announced Big Ben out? If so, bravo! I still like the under at 41.5... And as for Cleveland and Oakland, I think those are the sharpest picks available this weekend. With you large on both.
Did you get that Pit Bal game before they announced Big Ben out? If so, bravo! I still like the under at 41.5... And as for Cleveland and Oakland, I think those are the sharpest picks available this weekend. With you large on both.
YepYup - got it Tuesday...
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Quote Originally Posted by Alax14:
Did you get that Pit Bal game before they announced Big Ben out? If so, bravo! I still like the under at 41.5... And as for Cleveland and Oakland, I think those are the sharpest picks available this weekend. With you large on both.
Hmmmm to go with Cowherd and WhoDat nation or Gilz and Da Rrrrrraiiddddaaaasss (crackhead Berman voice). Guess I will just settle on the Brownies and Bucs
As always, best of luck buddy
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Hmmmm to go with Cowherd and WhoDat nation or Gilz and Da Rrrrrraiiddddaaaasss (crackhead Berman voice). Guess I will just settle on the Brownies and Bucs
= I know this has dropped to 41, 40.5, and even 40 at most books. Based on the GiLzTrend™ NFL Divisional PrimeTime UNDER's cashing @ 80% (12-3) this year, I'd still make the play. I bought this late Mon. night last week, after the Chiefs/Steelers game. This opened the highest it's ever opened for a PIT/BAL game, I believe, and Big Ben is worth 6 points of a drop? Not really buying that... again, just playing the trend.
Bucs -1 TB/CAR *OVER 48*
= If you played the OVER in every Bucs game this year, you'd be looking good. Real good. Only 2 out of their 9 games have gone under the posted total, and 6 have OVERS have cashed 6 straight in Buccaneer games. Another trend follower I'm being, but I think it's beneficial with Cam Newton on the other side of the ball and playing an NFC South team, where his career numbers are tops -vs- any other division. With a posted QB rating @ 90, and -vs- the Bucs, his QB rating is 108.8 - defending Cam -vs- the NFC South/Bucs is just more of a confidence booster he'll get some points on the Bucs. I also have the Bucs -1 and I like this a little more then the OVER. Cam -vs- the Bucs is nothing compared to Freeman -vs- the Panthers. The past 3 years, Freeman has lit up the Panthers' D completing 68% of his passes in the process. He's got 6 TD's to 1 INT, posted QB rating over 100 (104.0) and has led the Bucs to victory over the Panthers 3 of the last 4 started against them. Add in these little stat nuggets mxied with the way the Bucs are playing on the offensive side of the ball... I'm expecting/hoping for the Bucs to pight up the scoreboard in Carolina. As of right now, there's a 30% chance of light rain. All is good.
DET/GB *OVER 51.5*
= 2 QB's who shine -vs- one another, 2 Weak Secondary's, 2 Teams who abbandoned the run meaning the more pass attempts, the more the clock stops, the better it is for the OVER to prevail. Now, outside of GiLzTrend™ in primetime matchups, divisional matchups a lone have seen the UNDER hit when H2H @ 66% this year. But I think it's nothing about going against the brain with the reasons I mentioned in the opening. Another big reason, is I love fading the Lions the 2nd half of the season. But why not today? I kinda steer clear of sides when teams come off byes. They're a bit trickier then some would think. Example this season is the Fat Man (Andy Reid) never lost off a bye, and of course with this year's team in Philly, he dropped his first game off a bye. More example then just that but I don't wanna bailout on what I'm trying to get across with the Lions/2nd half of football. Since 2009, the Lions are 9-16 in the 2nd half, and the OVER has hit 71% (18-7) of the time. The Lions did, however, start off slow in the first half then they did recent years... so today, I believe they'll put up some points for a very vulernable Charles Woodson-less secondary of the Packers. Aaron Rodgers owns the Lions. YES, owns. In 7 careers starts -vs- the Lions, Rodgers has a posted QB rating @ 115.7, 16TD to 4INT, completing 69.4% of his passes and averages 268 a game threw the air.
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PIT/BAL *UNDER 46*
= I know this has dropped to 41, 40.5, and even 40 at most books. Based on the GiLzTrend™ NFL Divisional PrimeTime UNDER's cashing @ 80% (12-3) this year, I'd still make the play. I bought this late Mon. night last week, after the Chiefs/Steelers game. This opened the highest it's ever opened for a PIT/BAL game, I believe, and Big Ben is worth 6 points of a drop? Not really buying that... again, just playing the trend.
Bucs -1 TB/CAR *OVER 48*
= If you played the OVER in every Bucs game this year, you'd be looking good. Real good. Only 2 out of their 9 games have gone under the posted total, and 6 have OVERS have cashed 6 straight in Buccaneer games. Another trend follower I'm being, but I think it's beneficial with Cam Newton on the other side of the ball and playing an NFC South team, where his career numbers are tops -vs- any other division. With a posted QB rating @ 90, and -vs- the Bucs, his QB rating is 108.8 - defending Cam -vs- the NFC South/Bucs is just more of a confidence booster he'll get some points on the Bucs. I also have the Bucs -1 and I like this a little more then the OVER. Cam -vs- the Bucs is nothing compared to Freeman -vs- the Panthers. The past 3 years, Freeman has lit up the Panthers' D completing 68% of his passes in the process. He's got 6 TD's to 1 INT, posted QB rating over 100 (104.0) and has led the Bucs to victory over the Panthers 3 of the last 4 started against them. Add in these little stat nuggets mxied with the way the Bucs are playing on the offensive side of the ball... I'm expecting/hoping for the Bucs to pight up the scoreboard in Carolina. As of right now, there's a 30% chance of light rain. All is good.
DET/GB *OVER 51.5*
= 2 QB's who shine -vs- one another, 2 Weak Secondary's, 2 Teams who abbandoned the run meaning the more pass attempts, the more the clock stops, the better it is for the OVER to prevail. Now, outside of GiLzTrend™ in primetime matchups, divisional matchups a lone have seen the UNDER hit when H2H @ 66% this year. But I think it's nothing about going against the brain with the reasons I mentioned in the opening. Another big reason, is I love fading the Lions the 2nd half of the season. But why not today? I kinda steer clear of sides when teams come off byes. They're a bit trickier then some would think. Example this season is the Fat Man (Andy Reid) never lost off a bye, and of course with this year's team in Philly, he dropped his first game off a bye. More example then just that but I don't wanna bailout on what I'm trying to get across with the Lions/2nd half of football. Since 2009, the Lions are 9-16 in the 2nd half, and the OVER has hit 71% (18-7) of the time. The Lions did, however, start off slow in the first half then they did recent years... so today, I believe they'll put up some points for a very vulernable Charles Woodson-less secondary of the Packers. Aaron Rodgers owns the Lions. YES, owns. In 7 careers starts -vs- the Lions, Rodgers has a posted QB rating @ 115.7, 16TD to 4INT, completing 69.4% of his passes and averages 268 a game threw the air.
= Another TOP FADE of mine - fading the Cowboys coming back to Dallas after a big road victory. This, and hearing Dallas' name in the media 10plus times a day as they are back or the team to beat or yadda yadda yay. Rob Ryan says it's personal -vs- the Browns. Brownies have been quiet and have to said it's personal -vs- him. Not gonna go stat wild on this one. Not trend crazy. Just gonna stick to situational. And that situation is the Cowboys are flat coming back home after a big win. Most of the time, too, it's a big win in general. Rare to see the Cowboys these days have 2 outstanding back-to-back games on both sides of the ball.
Raiders +5
= The Raiders? Really? -vs- Drew Brees & the streaky Saints who have a chance @ getting bacl to .500 where nobody thought they would? The counted out Saints? You're going against them GiL? Why, yes, yes I am. Now I'm not saying the Raiders are going to win straight up. If I thought that, then of course I'd have a couple pacos on the moneyliner. I'm getting 5 with NJA, no juice attached. The Saints are in a prime let down spot going out west to get back .500 -vs- a Raiders team who is....... well, not really good at anything. The Raiders can pass. Yea. But consitently? NO. They can run, at times, but consistently? NO. The defense, consistently good at not being good. But so is the Saints defense. And the OVER isn't a bad play either. The Raiders +5 is a play I really, I really like.
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Browns +9
= Another TOP FADE of mine - fading the Cowboys coming back to Dallas after a big road victory. This, and hearing Dallas' name in the media 10plus times a day as they are back or the team to beat or yadda yadda yay. Rob Ryan says it's personal -vs- the Browns. Brownies have been quiet and have to said it's personal -vs- him. Not gonna go stat wild on this one. Not trend crazy. Just gonna stick to situational. And that situation is the Cowboys are flat coming back home after a big win. Most of the time, too, it's a big win in general. Rare to see the Cowboys these days have 2 outstanding back-to-back games on both sides of the ball.
Raiders +5
= The Raiders? Really? -vs- Drew Brees & the streaky Saints who have a chance @ getting bacl to .500 where nobody thought they would? The counted out Saints? You're going against them GiL? Why, yes, yes I am. Now I'm not saying the Raiders are going to win straight up. If I thought that, then of course I'd have a couple pacos on the moneyliner. I'm getting 5 with NJA, no juice attached. The Saints are in a prime let down spot going out west to get back .500 -vs- a Raiders team who is....... well, not really good at anything. The Raiders can pass. Yea. But consitently? NO. They can run, at times, but consistently? NO. The defense, consistently good at not being good. But so is the Saints defense. And the OVER isn't a bad play either. The Raiders +5 is a play I really, I really like.
PIT/BAL *UNDER 46*
= 61-33 (65%) @ +45.80 unit$
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