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Green Bay @ Seattle

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Posted: #51
winner!
 
 
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Posted: #52
 
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Posted: #53
Thanks guys. Nice to start the year with a win. Have three more tickets on Sunday:

1. Tennessee. Already explained this one earlier. I think KC is trash. Tennessee a very underrated team IMO and I think they SU here. 10-6 team vs a 6-10 one. Would take any dog price with them.

2. Tampa Bay. Didn't go over this one much earlier. Very high on TB. They have a great young defense that should be better this season. The front 7 is scary good. Some questions with McCown but this team looks sneaky competitive. I LOVE Mike Evans and think he's going to be a stud. Kid made Johnny Manziel a lot of money and is tough as nails. Pairing him with Jackson, a healthy Doug Martin (throw last year out for him, he played 6 games and was banged up. He's still a stud) and a mauler like Mankins coming in to go with a tough defense makes this team look really, really physical. They are TOUGH and are going to beat teams up with their size and physicality. 

Carolina has diddly sh.it at the skill positions. Newton is a mess and has not had any time to build continuity with his cast of #3 receivers. The Panthers run game faces a great Bucs run D. Also should note the Carolina RB's were not very impressive last year averaging 3.9 YPC. Newton was responsible for a lot of the efficiency in the run game and I doubt he'll be running much here on a bum ankle and bad ribs. I expect Newton's mechanics to be off as well. Rib injuries are very hard to come back from quickly. Run game should be bottled up, no receivers, no continuity, their best OL gone and they are starting a rookie guard against McCoy - kid has missed time and the coaches are worried about his conditioning in the heat...he's facing Gerald McCoy here!!! How on earth does this team score? I can't find more than 10 points. Can't win if you don't score. I loved Tampa before and have loved them more with each week. Would still lay 3.

3. Baltimore. Price dropped and I don't know why. They are an autobet at home at this price. They sucked balls last year and still went 6-2 at home - which was their worst home record under Harbaugh. They are 41-9 in the 50 home games he has coached this team and now they are basically a pk against Andy Dalton? Yes, please! 

Dalton has been awful in career vs the Ravens. No reason not to expect that to continue as I think the Ravens are going to have a great defense this season yet again. Dalton is also a significantly worse QB on the road and Cincy went 3-5 on the road last year with only 1 win by more than 3 points. Cincy lost two very good and two very popular coordinators in Gruden and Zimmer. Not sure how they react to that. Those are tough losses. To be fair the Ravens also have a new O-coordinator, but it's all relative because their offense was so bad last season. Kubiak should improve them big time. There was a great article earlier about how much better Flacco is off play action passes. Kubiak's system is based off the play action. Love having a full season of Pitta for the Ravens. He's Flacco's safety net. Ravens should be much better this season. Andy Dalton winning on the road against a great defense and 41-9 home team? Yeah, I'll pay to see that and not think twice.


GL.
 
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Posted: #55
Great analysis.  Thank you for that.
 
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Posted: #56
Great start to the season, Andy. I'm happy our cards are practically identical(I'm adding either Tenn or Minny, but I'm just frustrated at the bad lines so haven't pulled the trigger on either).

GL this weekend, bro.
 
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Posted: #57
Great hit last night with Seattle. Nice looking card for week 1 

Quick question for a Titans prop I'm eyeing up. I liked the over 7 win total but as you mentioned it's pretty juiced. My local has a "Matchups - Most Regular Season Wins" prop that has Tennessee vs NY Jets at -110. Basically which team gets more wins this season. Thinking I should hammer it? It looks like the best one on the board but would like your input. Thanks 
 
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Posted: #58

Like them all except TB. I love picking teams that have nothing but negative news leading up to the game. This week it seems thats Carolina and Dallas.

 
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Posted: #59
Quote Originally Posted by tooez:

Great hit last night with Seattle. Nice looking card for week 1 

Quick question for a Titans prop I'm eyeing up. I liked the over 7 win total but as you mentioned it's pretty juiced. My local has a "Matchups - Most Regular Season Wins" prop that has Tennessee vs NY Jets at -110. Basically which team gets more wins this season. Thinking I should hammer it? It looks like the best one on the board but would like your input. Thanks 

I have no read on the Jets. They look horrible on paper, but Rex always seem to mold together a really good defense and they overcome disgraces at the skill positions and win some games. They went 8-8 last year with manure on their offense. No clue what will happen with them. Maybe Geno develops and they sneak a few more games. Maybe the team implodes and Rex gets fired. I just don't know.

Rex is a hell of a coach though. It's a crying shame he's been given such embarrassing offensive players. This guy always has a great defense no matter who the players are. He took Mark EFFING Sanchez to two AFC Championship games. That should qualify him for the Hall of Fame. Players love playing for this guy too. If he had any semblance of an offense and a real NFL QB he'd have a team competing for Super Bowls. I love that mofo. He's exactly what a team like Dallas or Detroit could use. 

Not much help, I know, but can't get a feel for the Jets. Old regulars like glyde, 165yds, and raems would know this team much better than me. 
 
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Posted: #60
Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:

Great start to the season, Andy. I'm happy our cards are practically identical(I'm adding either Tenn or Minny, but I'm just frustrated at the bad lines so haven't pulled the trigger on either).

GL this weekend, bro.

Thanks bud. I would have hammered the Vikings had they started Teddy Bridgewater. I don't care if it's his first game. I have a major hard on for that kid and think he's going to be awesome. Some jackass took a system QB and turd like Manziel over Teddy Bridgewater. My god. 

Not big on the Rams. Good talent, just something missing...namely a QB. Think the NFC West takes a big step back outside of Seattle this year. I have SF, ARZ, and STL all winning fewer games. 


 
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Good to see you back buddy. Hope to see you at least a bit this year. Nice nail on the Bags. Ecstatic to see that we see eye to eye on pretty much everything so far. Love the Bucs, Titans and Balty in week 1. Also looking at Houston, Dallas and Denver/Chicago in a tease. Any thoughts on those games? Slammed some win totals including KC U, Car U, Atl U, Ind U and Dal U. Also slammed Saints division (+145), and parlayed Seattle and NE to win division at a juicy +140. Will look into your Tenny and Tampa overs as I lean your way on both there. Good luck this year bud.
 
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Posted: #62
Forgot to mention that I am extremely high on my Pats this year (no bias.) If they can keep their core guys healthy, I think they have a real shot at winning this whole thing. Don't sleep on their defense this year. It might even be the better unit!
 
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Andy, it's truly good seeing you back in action.  I still look back at threads from like 2010-2011 and there would be 200+ replies all from a cool group of regulars through the playoffs and we all slaughtered our bookies.  No fighting or trolling and you were Tony Soprano running the show.  

Hope all is well up in Canada.  Our friendly neighbors to the North!  Sometimes I wonder if you guys look at the USA like Americans look at Mexico.  Shameless and Low Winter Sun both shot a few scenes up in Windsor, and its amazing how nice of a city it is, but you cross one little bridge and DETROIT is just a festering urban wasteland.  I gotta think Canadians venture into Detroit looking for coke and prostitutes like I ventured once into Tijuana which consisted of cheap beer, a pharmacy that gave me Vicodin like I ordered a pack of cigarettes, and a bar'/whorehouse called Adalita's where a girl who looked like Selma Hayek blew me for 30 bucks plus tip.  Lol, I was nervous as hell and the Vicodin were kicked in and I had a whiskey d*ck of sorts.  After 2-3 minutes of working on a half mast rod, she said "relax" and kissed me with a mouth that probably inhaled 8 penises that day, popped off the condom, and REALLY blew me. Then after I fired off, she spit my load onto the floor next to the bed and said MUCHO "SOMETHING."  I asked her what that meant and she said MANY BABIES.  I was laughing so hard, I almost fell off the bed.    

GL as always, bro!



 
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Posted: #64
Quote Originally Posted by nepatriots_12:

Forgot to mention that I am extremely high on my Pats this year (no bias.) If they can keep their core guys healthy, I think they have a real shot at winning this whole thing. Don't sleep on their defense this year. It might even be the better unit!

NE PATS12!  What's up, man?  How's life treating you?

The Pats look NASTY this year.  I think the East is gonna be a deceptively good division and the Pats will have to really earn their bye.  Gotta assume Denver gets the 1 seed.  Who does that leave for the Pats to beat out for the other coveted bye?

Indy(good team; full of holes).  

Bengals(good team but never seem to step it up in the TRULY "big games."

Baltimore(my dark horse to make noise in the AFC; love that defense they are building).  

Are there any other true contenders?  Jets and Miami are both a leap from "great," but I think both teams can be dangerous.  The Jets if Geno steps up(I'm not a big fan, but he's looked good this preseason and playing behind a good D will minimize what he has to do).  Miami on the back of Tannahill who I'm high on.  He's improved every step of his 2 year journey and behind a line that was the center of America's Outrage of the Month last fall.  AHHHH, NOOOOO, BULLYINGGGGG, AHHHHHH!!!!  Miami's D needs to step up to boost them to contender status.  They have a decent front 7(mostly on the line IIRC), but can their secondary step up?

S+it, I should hunt down EarthWakes preseason thread.  I vaguely remember reading it about a month ago on a Sunday night in a mile long Sonic drive-thru line as I went on an evening run for the family for some ice cream(sonic blast god damn).

I take 12 minutes of my life to poke through that thread again and  I'll instantly be an expert on every aspect of that team.  Earth, great job, man.  I love what you bring to the community.  

Andy, what's your take on the Chargers?  I haven't really delved into that game, but I think Zona is laying 3.5.  I have no real thoughts or notes, but my gut tells me San Diego rolls into Arizona and HAMMER them,  Rivers quietly had a helluva season last year.  I remember Denver steamrolling SD for 3.5 quarters and then Rivers staged a backdoor that HURT(would have been a clean sweep that weekend for me), and he looked pretty good. Almost like the Rivers in the AFC Championship game 7-8 years ago.  Rivers like a warrior out there playing on I believe two sprained or torn ACL's while Tomlinson sat on the sideline holding his helmet like a little b*tch.  Anyway, if SD builds on the decent season they had last year......maybe they are a surprise team.

Anyone a SD Charger guru with some info?
 
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Posted: #65
Quote Originally Posted by nepatriots_12:

Good to see you back buddy. Hope to see you at least a bit this year. Nice nail on the Bags. Ecstatic to see that we see eye to eye on pretty much everything so far. Love the Bucs, Titans and Balty in week 1. Also looking at Houston, Dallas and Denver/Chicago in a tease. Any thoughts on those games? Slammed some win totals including KC U, Car U, Atl U, Ind U and Dal U. Also slammed Saints division (+145), and parlayed Seattle and NE to win division at a juicy +140. Will look into your Tenny and Tampa overs as I lean your way on both there. Good luck this year bud.

That's a damn nice parlay on SEA and NE you've got there. I only bet the TEN Over. Like Tampa in Week 1 and in general for the year, but decided not to tie much money up in futures. Like KC and CAR Unders. Lean the rest but not sure on Indy. Luck is just a machine. He could win 10 games with a college team.

Love your Pats too and think I said somewhere in this thread I'm very high on them. The defense is legit and it's what gives them a shot at a ring. I have them and the Hawks in the Super Bowl.

best of luck, buddy. 
 
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Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:

Andy, it's truly good seeing you back in action.  I still look back at threads from like 2010-2011 and there would be 200+ replies all from a cool group of regulars through the playoffs and we all slaughtered our bookies.  No fighting or trolling and you were Tony Soprano running the show.  

Hope all is well up in Canada.  Our friendly neighbors to the North!  Sometimes I wonder if you guys look at the USA like Americans look at Mexico.  Shameless and Low Winter Sun both shot a few scenes up in Windsor, and its amazing how nice of a city it is, but you cross one little bridge and DETROIT is just a festering urban wasteland.  I gotta think Canadians venture into Detroit looking for coke and prostitutes like I ventured once into Tijuana which consisted of cheap beer, a pharmacy that gave me Vicodin like I ordered a pack of cigarettes, and a bar'/whorehouse called Adalita's where a girl who looked like Selma Hayek blew me for 30 bucks plus tip.  Lol, I was nervous as hell and the Vicodin were kicked in and I had a whiskey d*ck of sorts.  After 2-3 minutes of working on a half mast rod, she said "relax" and kissed me with a mouth that probably inhaled 8 penises that day, popped off the condom, and REALLY blew me. Then after I fired off, she spit my load onto the floor next to the bed and said MUCHO "SOMETHING."  I asked her what that meant and she said MANY BABIES.  I was laughing so hard, I almost fell off the bed.    

GL as always, bro!




I'm dying. 
 
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Posted: #67
Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:

Andy, it's truly good seeing you back in action.  I still look back at threads from like 2010-2011 and there would be 200+ replies all from a cool group of regulars through the playoffs and we all slaughtered our bookies.  No fighting or trolling and you were Tony Soprano running the show.  

Hope all is well up in Canada.  Our friendly neighbors to the North!  Sometimes I wonder if you guys look at the USA like Americans look at Mexico.  Shameless and Low Winter Sun both shot a few scenes up in Windsor, and its amazing how nice of a city it is, but you cross one little bridge and DETROIT is just a festering urban wasteland.  I gotta think Canadians venture into Detroit looking for coke and prostitutes like I ventured once into Tijuana which consisted of cheap beer, a pharmacy that gave me Vicodin like I ordered a pack of cigarettes, and a bar'/whorehouse called Adalita's where a girl who looked like Selma Hayek blew me for 30 bucks plus tip.  Lol, I was nervous as hell and the Vicodin were kicked in and I had a whiskey d*ck of sorts.  After 2-3 minutes of working on a half mast rod, she said "relax" and kissed me with a mouth that probably inhaled 8 penises that day, popped off the condom, and REALLY blew me. Then after I fired off, she spit my load onto the floor next to the bed and said MUCHO "SOMETHING."  I asked her what that meant and she said MANY BABIES.  I was laughing so hard, I almost fell off the bed.    

GL as always, bro!





Love your stories my man. That is some classic garbage.  Plus, 30 bucks for a Selma lookalike sounds like money well spent. 

Oddly enough I'm moving to the US in a few weeks. Met the girl of my dreams and scored a great job down there. Life can't be going any better. Will put betting on hold for a while and won't be around much after a couple weeks. 

If I win some money on Sunday I'll prob throw some on SD. I think everyone has forgot how good Rivers is until he reminded us last year. A putrid o-line and too much Norv Turner killed this guy a couple years ago. Zona a "sexy" team in the media circles. Not buying it. Their defense has been GUTTED. Their top 4 tacklers are gone and Dansby, Washington, and Dockett are monster losses in the middle of that D. I think that unit takes a major step back and so will the team. Ellington banged up too. Last year was the year to ride a sneaky good Zona team. Day late and dollar short this year.

 
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Posted: #68
Niners line dropped a lot :(
 
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Posted: #69
absolutely the Chargers are looking good...and the over 8.5 at plus money for the season seems solid, plus Monday night...Turner and AJ Smith wasted so much talent-lord knows what McCoy and Telesco could do with it. Rivers can't run but they got him a bunch of fleas, forced him to throw quick and they make long drives, D rests.

They look like the Pats early in the run...Allen is Chris Carter...remember, they beat Denver in Denver almost twice...

I'm going on record-they win definitely cover in week 2 vs. Sea who should have a let down...plus SD can move on that D...

Great to see you in here, congrats on your happiness...
 
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Posted: #70
Awesome man. What state are you moving to? The US is a vast area where things are drastically different wherever you go(I'm sure its the same in Canada).

I'm a NJ/NY dude to the core, but I love going "south" to myrtle beach. Florida is incredible if you can stand the heat. Lots of old retired people in their spots up
and down the coast, and Miami and Key West are nuts. Been to Arizona and there's a nice vibe there....except you are in a desert! Loads of chicks too(Arizona state girls....damn!).

Cali is a strange strange place. Especially LA. Its Hollywood, hipsters, gangstas, gays, stoners, Mexicans.....all crammed into this giant city. From Malibu to Englewood to Compton. Perfect weather. Always sunny.

Colorado, Washington, Oregon, Cali....all POTHEADS and stoners too. There's Mormons creeping in Utah.

Or you can head up into the mountains of MONTANA and live a simple life.

JERSEY SHORE! Hit up Belmar 16th street on a Saturday in the summer, and your neck will be sore in 5 minutes looking at all the pu$$y!

Glad to hear things are going good for you!

 
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Posted: #72
Hey Andy I pm'd you.  Please open it if you get a chance.  
 
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Posted: #73
Great to see you back, one of the few left who actually knows what they are talking about.
 
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Posted: #74
Good luck today
 
 
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Posted: #75
Good to see you around. Agree on Bridgewater. Think we talked about him some in a prev thread. SF should regress this year, although i'm quite a bit higher on AZ than you are. bol this season!
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